$200 NLHE 6-max: Summer review: AJ turns trips OOP

F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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$200 NL HE 6-max: Summer review: AJ turns trips OOP

I went through some old hands that I had marked for analysis this summer and discussed them with Alan earlier today. Here's a hand I think I played poorly but the joint analysis with Alan was pretty solid. I'll post it first and let you guys comment before I tell you what we came up with.

Villain is 17/12/4.6, raises flop 18% of the time, goes to showdown 31% and 3-bets on the button only for value (3%).

What should I do on the turn and why (and what should my plan for the river be?)

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HAND 1
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$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details


BB: $206 (103 bb)
CO: $200 (100 bb)
SB: $201 (100.5 bb)
Hero (MP): $205 (102.5 bb)
BTN: $287.78 (143.9 bb)
UTG: $439.94 (220 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with A
club.gif
J
diamond.gif

UTG folds, Hero raises to $6, CO folds, BTN calls $6, 2 folds

Flop: ($15) J
club.gif
5
heart.gif
2
heart.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $10, BTN calls $10

Turn: ($35) J
spade.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $22, Hero calls $22

River: ($79) 6
heart.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $45, Hero calls $45
 
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delfam

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Going into the turn you have every hand beat, the only hands that can beat you are someone hitting their flush. J5 and J2 beat you but no way he has that calling your raise pre-flop.

I think on the turn you have to shove. I know your trying to get as much money for your dominant hand, but those two hearts are scary, and the pot is already big enough where you'll win decent money if he folds.

Shoving the turn is probably the right play.
 
slycbnew

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FP, thanks for posting this - oddly enough, I was just trying to identify which of the four examples I have of pretty much this same hand over the last week to post (the villain type varies across the examples, couldn't figure out which one to post).

With this villain, I'm not expecting to see 55 or 22, I'd have expected a flop raise on the two tone board. Since he's calling flop, I'm assuming his range is pretty much fd's, mid pp's, and Jx.

We get in a sticky spot by checking the turn I think if the river is a heart, unless we're planning to ch/r (as played, I think ch/call the river is correct). Since I'm assuming we're ahead on the turn, we can expect mid pp's to fold and fd's/Jx to call or push to a ch/r.

I think I'd actually bet the turn (call the turn if raised) rather than ch/r and bet/fold the river (ch/f the river if the turn was raised). But that line is because I hate getting bluffed off the hand if the river is a heart (yes, I'm a huge chicken and calling station) and this line isn't the best Ev I think.

Looking forward to this discussion, obv I'm not comfortable w my analysis since I was going to post a similar hand, tks!
 
c9h13no3

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Check-raise or bet/shove the turn. I'm not sure which is better, probably check/raising since it gets the money in a little easier.

To me, since villain didn't 3-bet, his range consists of Jx, middle pairs, draws, and sets. You beat everything except a set, and sets raise the flop a lot. So I'm looking to cram the money in on the turn.
 
S93

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I asume where checking turn because villain is floating with a huge range?
I kinda like c/r the turn and hope he spazes with HH or 66-TT and obvs. Jx

Isnt the whole point of checking the turn to get value from his floating range but when he bets and we call is he really gonna fire the river again with nothing when we check call him on a relativly dry board?

I dont play these stakes so i dont know the standard villain but i just dont see what a decent villain can put us on after we check/call the turn that makes him want to bluff the river.
Where probably barreling 99 and flushdraws so isnt check calling just telling him we have a good hand?

I like crai on the turn to get some value from his float range and getting it in vs his Jx,FDs.


Kinda curiouse what others think since its seems like interesting hand.
 
F Paulsson

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I agree that it's the turn that sucks. The river, as played, is OK (an argument could be made for leading the river, but c/c river or betting river is a much closer decision compared to not check/calling the turn).
 
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Whoever mentioned SHOVING the turn is insane. Uh like we have trips w top kicker and like 5x the pot in our stack! This isn't a tournament, we are trying to extract max value out of every hand over protecting our stack

Yea on the turn the c/c is just kind of bizarre. I'd usually just bet again, but if I did check, I'd c/r. As played river seems fine to me. Villain will go to valuetown with Jx here as our hand looks like TT or similar. We could also lead a blocker sized bet of like $35 with the intent of folding to a raise if villain isn't very imaginative (i.e we don't have to worry about a bluff raise, although with this board the way it played out it's very unlikely anyway)
 
S93

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Zybomb, no one said open shove the turn.
C9 said it was close between check/raise and bet/shove(lead the turn and shove if raised.
 
kesza

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Button raised his flushdraw on the turn in position?? Anyway I would played the same way..
 
KardKlub

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Going into the turn you have every hand beat, the only hands that can beat you are someone hitting their flush. J5 and J2 beat you but no way he has that calling your raise pre-flop.

I think on the turn you have to shove. I know your trying to get as much money for your dominant hand, but those two hearts are scary, and the pot is already big enough where you'll win decent money if he folds.

Shoving the turn is probably the right play.


he did
 
KardKlub

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As well as made trips J (Full house 55 22) which seem unlikely with the betting and a flush draw he could also be playing with 3 4s for a straight draw.

When you check, he try's to steal the pot with a just over half the pot bet, incase you yourself were semi bluffing the flop with a flush draw.

He might also discount a J from your range seen as a second one arrived.

Your call on the turn scared him when the heart came on the end which completed his straight hence the just over half river bet when you checked into him again.


You would however maybe got him to throw away draws on the turn if you had bet a decent amount yourself lets say 90% pot. Had he called then i can't see how you can put anymore money in the pot.

If you had bet the turn, it would have been cheaper overall to find out where you stand by the river or folding the turn to a re-raise.

If he shows a bluff then maybe it's time to move tables!!!

im still learning so please no one take this advice too seriously ok
 
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To add onto my response F P what was your intent for the river when u c/c'ed the turn. Assume it blanks (not really too many cards I guess a non heart 9 8 or 7), what about a non heart broadway card like Kd or Qs?
 
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delfam

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If he is on a flush draw and you check the turn, he might check to get a free card so he can hit his flush. I don't see how checking will help at all on the turn. Maybe don't shove, but at least put out a healthy raise.
 
F Paulsson

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Turn c/c is OK, now go all-in

After check/folding the turn or the river, this comes in as a close third in terms of the worst way to play the last two streets of this hand.

Explain your reasoning.
 
F Paulsson

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To add onto my response F P what was your intent for the river when u c/c'ed the turn. Assume it blanks (not really too many cards I guess a non heart 9 8 or 7), what about a non heart broadway card like Kd or Qs?

Bear in mind that this hand played out in June and I don't closely recall my line of reasoning. However, the only thing that makes sense to me now was that I determined his range after the flop to consist almost entirely of slowplayed sets, middle pocket pairs and weak top pairs and that the second jack made weak top pairs more unlikely and therefore his range was now weighted towards mid PPs and sets. Here is where I thought a bet would fold out the hands that I beat while being called (or raised) by hands that beat me. Since my relative hand strength wouldn't really allow me to make a heroic bet/fold on this turn, I probably felt like I'd just end up getting money in bad.

I don't remember what my plan for the river was. Check/call or bet/fold are the most likely, depending on the exact river card (I'm obv. bet/calling an ace or any other card that gives me a boat).

straight draw for the villan!
There's exactly one straight draw combo in villain's range, and that's 8h7h. I consider a (non-heart) 9 an almost entirely safe card. In fact, a nine is twice as likely to give him a full house as it is to give him a straight.

KardKlub said:
He might also discount a J from your range seen as a second one arrived.
Indeed!

Going back to my thinking that his range consists mostly of heart draws, mid PPs, weak jacks and sets, if he peels the flop with, say, 77, then this jack looks like a good card to him. The likelyhood of him taking another card off with a mid PP goes up significantly. This is a good reason to bet. It's somewhat less likely that he'd bet those hands himself if checked to, instead looking to get to showdown.

Secondly, I'm committed with this hand. Even though he could have a set (9 combos since I think he could/would have peeled with 66), there's still more jacks in his range than there are sets, assuming he can (at least sometimes) have KJo or QJo. Because of that, it's better for me to bet/shove than to check/raise/call, as his range for raising a second barrel is generally wider than it is for him to shove over a check/raise.

Versus a set, I'm losing my stack and I have no way of avoiding that (because folding at any point would be pretty bad), so the question becomes how I make the most out of the parts of his range that I beat. And I think the answer to that is "bet the turn" since so much of his range that I beat will call another barrel or even raise, but many of the same hands will also check back the turn if I check to him.

If I lead the turn and am called, I would bet this river, too, with the intention of folding to a shove. I don't think he'll ever bluff trying to represent a heart here, at least not often enough, as I don't think there's very many hands in his range that he'd turn into a bluff.
 
Sysvr4

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I guess I don't understand why the debate here is anything other than bet/call or bet/raise on the turn. A c/r is a risky play with no more information than we have, and villain's position bet on the turn gives us exactly no more information than we had before we checked.

Villain's range here is probably something like AK-ATs, JJ-22, and given the number of different combinations of each, the two groups are probably equally likely. That said, I would probably play this as a bet/call on the turn and open shoving any card that doesn't complete an obvious draw on the river. Check/calling the river is also very reasonable, depending on how often our villain will value bluff with something like 99 here.
 
F Paulsson

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That said, I would probably play this as a bet/call on the turn and open shoving any card that doesn't complete an obvious draw on the river.

What does that accomplish? Sounds to me like we're stacking off to sets, forcing mid PPs and busted draws to fold and not getting the money in vs. draws on the turn?
 
S93

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I guess I don't understand why the debate here is anything other than bet/call or bet/raise on the turn. A c/r is a risky play with no more information than we have, and villain's position bet on the turn gives us exactly no more information than we had before we checked.

Villain's range here is probably something like AK-ATs, JJ-22, and given the number of different combinations of each, the two groups are probably equally likely. That said, I would probably play this as a bet/call on the turn and open shoving any card that doesn't complete an obvious draw on the river. Check/calling the river is also very reasonable, depending on how often our villain will value bluff with something like 99 here.
Villain is aggressive he isnt checking back the turn with flushdraw or stuff like 88. He also probably has some random overs/backdoor draws that decited the float us on the flop all of witch we should probably get most value from with a c/r.
 
slycbnew

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I was originally thinking bet/call the turn, but we'll end up w over 1/3 of our stack in after a bet/call. If we think our hand is ahead of villain's range on the turn after he raises our bet, wouldn't we want to just get our money in as the favorite given that we'd have to commit a third of our stack just to call?

EDIT: nvr mind, what FP said...
 
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Sysvr4

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What does that accomplish? Sounds to me like we're stacking off to sets, forcing mid PPs and busted draws to fold and not getting the money in vs. draws on the turn?

You get paid off a lot when villain has QQ or TT-77 and when he puts you on air on that river bet. You can say it doesn't happen, but I can assure you it does. The piece of information we need to definitively determine the liklihood of this is what are the *hero's* stats. How does our villain perceive us here?

And I note you edited the part where I said c/c the river is reasonable, so I'll reiterate that here. I think we get paid enough that donking the river is more profitable at this level.
 
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Sysvr4

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Villain is aggressive he isnt checking back the turn with flushdraw or stuff like 88. He also probably has some random overs/backdoor draws that decited the float us on the flop all of witch we should probably get most value from with a c/r.

I have stats close to villains and I'll definitely take a free card on that turn with a flush draw. TT-88, probably not.
 
Sysvr4

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I was originally thinking bet/call the turn, but we'll end up w over 1/3 of our stack in after a bet/call. If we think our hand is ahead of villain's range on the turn after he raises our bet, wouldn't we want to just get our money in as the favorite given that we'd have to commit a third of our stack just to call?

Being out of position, I have no problem with bet/raise. It's probably the better play than bet/call here in general, but depending on his perception of you, they're both very close.
 
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