Originally Posted by Sysvr4
You get paid off a lot when villain has QQ or TT-77 and when he puts you on air on that river bet. You can say it doesn't happen, but I can assure you it does. The piece of information we need to definitively determine the liklihood of this is what are the *hero's* stats. How does our villain perceive us here?
In June, my style was roughly 19/16, my opening range for MP (although it's doubtful he'd know this to this great a detail) is 22+, KJs+, JTs+, ATo+. At the time I c-bet 80%+, went to showdown 29%, double barreled 40% of the time. I have no idea how often I fold to turn raises (and I therefore expect that he didn't either).
And I'm not saying it doesn't happen, but here's four things that have to be true for it to happen:
1. He has to not 3-bet preflop with QQ.
2. He has to not raise the flop with 77-TT and QQ.
3. He has to raise the turn with said hands.
4. He has to call a river shove with those hands.
Since probabilities get multiplied, and all of these have, in my opinion, at the very least less than an average of 50% probability each, it seems like he'd play one of these hands this way only 6-12% of the time.
Compare that to a set. Arguably, it's perhaps a bit odd for him to slowplay a set on this flop, but even if he does that only 30% of the time with a set, that STILL makes a set more than twice as probable as 77-TT,QQ.
And, to top it off, in order for this to be better than just bet/shoving the turn, it would also have to be true that he'd rather call a river openshove than a turn 3-bet. It's probably true that there are players that would rather call a river openshove (hoping to pick off a busted flushdraw, I guess) than a turn 3-betshove, but then you have to weigh that probability versus the probability that he himself has a flushdraw (small but probably bigger than the combined probability that he'll both fold to a turn shove BUT call a river shove).
And I note you edited the part where I said c/c the river is reasonable, so I'll reiterate that here. I think we get paid enough that donking the river is more profitable at this level.
I didn't edit it in order to misrepresent what you were saying, I hope you didn't take it that way. I tend to quote the parts that I'm interested in discussing and since I don't disagree with c/c river being reasonable there was no particular reason for me to quote it.
Being out of position, I have no problem with bet/raise. It's probably the better play than bet/call here in general, but depending on his perception of you, they're both very close.
I disagree with bet/calling being close to bet/shoving.
Villain's range, roughly (ignoring the weighting and combinatorical size of each):
1. Unimproved PPs.
5. Pure floats, e.g. AhTx, or similar hands.
Bet/calling, shove river and bet/shoving the turn has the same value versus sets (we stack off) and pure floats (he folds either way).
Bet/calling probably wins a little extra versus PPs that raise the turn. I think this is a small part of his range.
Bet/shoving wins a lot of value versus flushdraws that raise the turn. I think this is a small part of his range as well.
Bet/calling loses at least a little value vs J-x when the river is a third heart. Since we're not openshoving a heart river, we will only win the same vs. J-X the times the river is a heart if he shoves when checked to. If he bets anything less than his entire stack (or checks behind) we miss out.
Originally Posted by sindri_93
Villain is aggressive he isnt checking back the turn with flushdraw or stuff like 88.
"Isn't" is a strong word. Some non-zero percentage of the time, he will. But the percentage of the time he'll call a bet with those hands is 100%. So c/r:ing versus those hands is only better if he'll either shovebluff over our raise or call our checkraise, and while that will ALSO happen some non-zero percentage of the time, I think it's (much) more likely for him to try to snap off a bluff with mid PPs by calling two more streets rather than bet/calling the turn with 88 and then calling a river shove.
He also probably has some random overs/backdoor draws that decited the float us on the flop all of witch we should probably get most value from with a c/r.
If we think that this is a significant portion of his range, then it's better to take the line I took (c/c two streets) rather than c/r the turn, bet river, because this range is folding to a turn c/r anyway. I mean, some portion of the time he's going to spazz out and try to 3-bet bluffshove the turn with air, but then we're back to multiplying small probabilities, namely
1. he peels the flop with a weak hand,
2. he bets the turn when checked to, and
3. he spazzes out and shoves when he gets checkraised.
1. and 2. are pretty likely, but even if he peels the flop with 80% of his "air" (random overs etc, like you said), and bets it when checked on the turn 80% of the time, and spazzes out and 3-bet bluffs as often as 10% of the time when he gets checkraised, then we're still only dealing with a ~6% chance of him doing this with his air. This can still be a decent chunk of combos if he can have a lot of air but I'm not so sure he can. How much air does a 17/12 show up with?