$200 NLHE 6-max: Set in blind battle - to lead or not to lead

F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Total posts
5,799
Awards
1
Chips
1
$200 NL HE 6-max: Set in blind battle - to lead or not to lead

This is prompted by me filtering for pots > 200BBs where I saw a showdown and AI preflop = false and noticing that I lost money over the last 30k hands in such spots. I looked through the hands and while I could have found better and/or alternative lines for some of the hands, I don't think my plays were fundamentally losing. So if it's not the case that I'm playing poorly in big pots, then perhaps it's the case that I fail to create big pots for my big hands.

Or I'm just running like shit. Or all of the above. Take your pick.

Anyway.

A regular at Party 1/2 opens on the button. Sometimes I 3-bet small PPs, sometimes I flat (sometimes, although rarely, I just fold), depending on how they react to 3-bets, how sticky they are on the flop and how often they 4-bet.

This time, I decided to flat. I flop the second nuts. What would sway my decision between taking a check/call, check/raise or lead out line?

Stats are intentionally not included because I want to learn what you look for in stats or reads when you make a decision how to play monsters on dry boards.

--------------------
HAND 1
--------------------

$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details


SB: $200 (100 bb)
CO: $184 (92 bb)
BTN: $401.94 (201 bb)
Hero (BB): $203 (101.5 bb)
UTG: $200 (100 bb)
MP: $263.97 (132 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with 5
diamond.gif
5
spade.gif

3 folds, BTN raises to $7, SB folds, Hero calls $5

Flop: ($15) 5
heart.gif
4
club.gif
T
diamond.gif
(2 players)
Hero...

For instance, high WTSD and low c-bet might be arguments for leading out. High aggression on his part as well (hoping for a bet/call line on the flop, essentially). Recent history and other metagame stuff as well, of course, and how he reacts to check/raises, how often he folds to flop c-bets etc etc.
 
vanquish

vanquish

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 26, 2007
Total posts
12,000
Chips
0
if a guy has high aggression factor i will sometimes c/c, c/c, c/r in this spot (obv depending on what kind of draws the turn card brings/completes) because it works as an awesome tarp
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
Chips
0
Can't really answer this. I never play oop... :D

Seriously, i barely ever flat preflop in this spot.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
Chips
0
Flatting's fine, we just have to have a read on btn to know we can exploit him somehow (ch-r bluffs, donk bluffs, he gives up easily after cbetting flop etc). I don't think flatting for pure set mining is any good here.

As for how to play the hand with stats etc, I'm mostly looking at his barreling numbers (something like 76/50+/50+ and I love the c/c c/c c/r line since we can rep a small pair and get him to barrel off, hopefully hitting TP along the way to commit himself). If I'm donking I mostly just look at the donk popup numbers if I have lots of hands on him and only lead if he either calls lots or raises lots.

How he reacts to check-raises on a board like this is pretty important too. I'll check-raise this flop knowing my opponent has nothing if he's aggro enough, since most of the time we can't have anything on this board and he'll both make moves with his air and stack his overpairs/strong top pairs.

I dunno, depends on a lot of things :)
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Total posts
5,799
Awards
1
Chips
1
For a showdown monkey like myself, I think c/c, c/c, c/r can often be the best line vs. regulars, yes. Some of them have learned that I call down fairly light (at least vs. some opponents) and will 3-barrel me with stuff like KT on this board for value.

In regards to balancing issues, I should point out that I (sometimes) lead this flop with small pairs that missed as well, intending to fold to a raise, versus someone who doesn't c-bet often. The idea being that I don't want to give him the chance to check back the flop and take a free card, and it's going to take some cojones to raise this dry of a flop with bluffs since sets are in my range when I do it.

Versus some opponents who like to spew, I like check/raising. They'll virtually never fail to c-bet a flop this dry, and they're going to trip over themselves trying to play the levelling game when I play back at them.

If an aggressive opponent flats my check/raise, what do you like for the default play on an insignificant turn? Let's say it's the 8s. Go for a second check/raise? I'm talking vs. someone who folds vs. flop raise 35% of the time or such, where there's bound to be a large chunk of trash in his range. Give him the chance to "sense weakness" and bet, or just bet out myself and hope he'll level himself into shoving?

I like the "**** you" part of check/raising them twice, but I'll concede that it might not be the most +EV line.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
Chips
0
I like the double ch-r against someone who floats a flop ch-r lots. Most aren't smart enough to play the 'float flop ch-r, ch back turn, bet riv' as a bluff repping a marginal showdown hand (which is awesome vs chronic flop ch-raisers btw), and most of the time are just betting out on the turn. And I think they're doing that WAY more often than they're shoving over our turn bet.

edit: on a bigger turn card like Q or J+ I like betting more since they often try to jam draws/rep pairs/etc, but on a blank turn I like ch-r.
 
Top