$200 NL HE 6-max: Set in blind battle - to lead or not to lead
This is prompted by me filtering for pots > 200BBs where I saw a showdown and AI preflop = false and noticing that I lost money over the last 30k hands in such spots. I looked through the hands and while I could have found better and/or alternative lines for some of the hands, I don't think my plays were fundamentally losing. So if it's not the case that I'm playing poorly in big pots, then perhaps it's the case that I fail to create
big pots for my big hands.
Or I'm just running like shit. Or all of the above. Take your pick.
A regular at Party 1/2 opens on the button. Sometimes I 3-bet small PPs, sometimes I flat (sometimes, although rarely, I just fold), depending on how they react to 3-bets, how sticky they are on the flop and how often they 4-bet.
This time, I decided to flat. I flop the second nuts. What would sway my decision between taking a check/call, check/raise or lead out line?
Stats are intentionally not included because I want to learn what you look for in stats or reads when you make a decision how to play monsters on dry boards.
$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
by Stoxpoker (http://www.stoxpoker.com/) - Hand Details (http://www.stoxpoker.com/pokertools/hand/29046/)
SB: $200 (100 bb)
CO: $184 (92 bb)
BTN: $401.94 (201 bb)
Hero (BB): $203 (101.5 bb)
UTG: $200 (100 bb)
MP: $263.97 (132 bb)
: Hero is BB with 5
3 folds, BTN raises to $7
, SB folds, Hero calls $5
: ($15) 5
T (2 players)
For instance, high WTSD and low c-bet might be arguments for leading out. High aggression on his part as well (hoping for a bet/call line on the flop, essentially). Recent history and other metagame stuff as well, of course, and how he reacts to check/raises, how often he folds to flop c-bets etc etc.