$200 NLHE 6-max: River CRAI bluff?

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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$200 NL HE 6-max: River CRAI bluff?

Villain is a 30/20 lag who has a really passive 3bet/4bet game, hence my 3bet. He never bluff raises postflop, and when he calls he usually has it. When he calls flop I expect him to mostly have AJ type hands, and occasionally a monster (which I expect to bet the turn, so we can mostly discount AT/sets on the river).

Thoughts on CR the river? I realize AJ filled, but he has to give us credit for a backdoored flush/KQ/set/whatever doesn't he?

poker stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

CO: $224 (112 bb)
BTN: $365 (182.5 bb)
SB: $248.25 (124.1 bb)
Hero (BB): $375.50 (187.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with 7:heart: 2:heart:
CO folds, BTN raises to $6, SB folds, Hero raises to $23, BTN calls $17

Flop: ($47) A:heart: 2:diamond: T:spade: (2 players)
Hero bets $30, BTN calls $30

Turn: ($107) 4:spade: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($107) J:spade: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $65, Hero ...
 
Infamous1020

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I think if you CR the river here he's most likely calling. The overall line seemed pretty weak to me with the check on the turn and river so I'd be calling a check raise with top pair in this spot.
 
Infamous1020

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Sorry misread stack sizes.

I just think the river check was kinda weird. Considering how passive the villian has played the hand, I think a river check is kinda bad. If you had a made hand, why would you check the river? He hasn't been the aggresor since preflop so considering how passive he is, I personally wouldn't risk letting him check it down if I had a hand there

The checkraise on the river just doesn't seem like a credible move to me, and it would be one of those spots where I know its either air or a hand, which is why i would strongly consider calling.

to me he played the hand like he has somethin like AQ, AK, somethin like that. and I'm pretty sure I'd call in that spot due to your line
 
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feitr

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kq/flushes make sense, since you'd take this line, though if villain has the As (AJ/AT, whatever) it sucks since it is hard to put too many big flushes into your range other than KsQs. I don't think you'd ever get credit for a set, since you'd basically have to have JJ, and i'm not sure JJ would even shove the river (i'd expect you to raise smaller, but maybe not).

So i guess if villain can make big folds and gives you at least a good amount of respect it is ok, but i don't really like the odds you lay yourself all that much. Although, that said, it makes it harder for him to call it off with a hand like top 2, since you have nothing worse in your value range. But you're risking something like $310 to win $170 ish, so it has to work alot, but i do think you probably get alot of credit here. Alot of it comes down to how light villain can value the river, and obviously the lighter he can the better this is. So if he can bet A9 for value on the river and will fold a good chunk of his range, then i think this is probably +EV. It's hard to evaluate a hand like this in a results-oriented manner, since unless villain snaps you with A3 you will probalby just be shown the top of his range or he'll fold and you won't really know how good a hand you folded out.
 
vanquish

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vanquish theorem #7: no one ever folds to river c/r's
 
ChuckTs

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really you think so?

I fold almost always without the nuts because of

chuckts theorem #0: nobody ever checkraises the river as a bluff at 200nl

I think I'm repping too thin of a range though here even though I disagree with you Infamous in that I am for sure taking this exact line with spades and KQ.
 
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feitr

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Yea i don't think that bluff shoving the river is common at nl200. If i was in villain's spot w/ even top 2, the main thing going through my mind would be whether or not villain is actually capable of bluff shoving this deep. It is easy to figure out what hands villain is repping and where his value shoving range ends, but it is damn hard to know how much of his range is composed of bluffs when you aren't even that sure if they can bluff shove the river, ever. It just totally sucks when you call in a spot like this and villain shows up with exactly what they are repping and you are left with nfi whether or not it was just a case where villain had the top of their range or whether or not you were on the completely wrong wavelength and they are thinking you are a complete donkey coz they would never bluff there.

And i'm pretty sure alot of ppl just can't bluff shove on the river. It is a good bet almost everybody can 3B light, 4B light, c/r bluff, etc. but not as easy to figure out whether or not they are capable of bluff shoving, especially in a case like this where the line is rather opaque and consistent with a backdoor draw hitting.
 
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