This is a discussion on $200 NLHE 6-max: Relatively uk opponent not sure I love my fold? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; He's literally repping 55 66 or 56s (which I don't think he calls with often at all). This hand has bothered me for a while
$200 NLHE 6-max: Relatively uk opponent not sure I love my fold?
He's literally repping 55 66 or 56s (which I don't think he calls with often at all). This hand has bothered me for a while now 500 hands and villain isn't overly aggressive, but way more aggro on the river than the average villain again though small sample size. Could he possibly be turning a sd hand into a bluff that gets me to fold an overpair that has a diamond qqs+?
Position Name Stack BB
$184.17 (92.1 bb) MP
$150.89 (75.4 bb) CO Hero $224.83 (112.4 bb) BTN
$262.22 (131.1 bb) SB
$229.06 (114.5 bb) DETAILS:
User:Anonymous Played Date:09/02/2016 Limit:No Limit Hold'em Cash Site:Cake Poker Stakes/Buy-In:$1/$2 Players:5 Profit:-$87.97
Preflop: Hero is CO with A J
MP folds, Hero raises to $6, BTN folds, SB calls $5, BB folds
River: ($76.26) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $50.84, SB raises to $191.93 and is all-in, Hero folds
8th September 2016, 11:11 AM
He can definitely be repping the flush with a weak Jx hand that obv can only beat a bluff at SD.
How often do we expect him to be aggro with his sets here? I doubt he calls 56 from the SB. So it's 3 combos of 66 and 1 combo of 55.
I just don't believe it.
8th September 2016, 2:41 PM
re: Poker & $200 NLHE 6-max: Relatively uk opponent not sure I love my fold?
No stats? I'm calling here against everyone but the most straightforward players.
8th September 2016, 4:18 PM
Online Poker at: Pokerstars
Hi jsh169. These are my thoughts.
Pre-flop: Obviously it's a standard open in the CO with AJs. It's kind of hard to put the SB on a range here because different players have vastly different flatting ranges from the SB. You say he's not overly aggressive, but I'd still expect him to 3-bet a fair amount from the SB (if he has any idea about position). We'll keep his range fairly wide for the moment (mainly because I'm not entirely sure what it consists of). 55+, AJo, AQo, A2s-AQs, KQo, KTs+, QJo, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s. There's a good chance it'll be tighter than that, but it's a start.
Flop: I like your standard size c-bet. We can get value from plenty worse. Now, I don't really think he has too much in his range with which to call this bet, so we can narrow it down a fair bit when he does. Firstly, seeing as there are some draws on board, I think he raises with a set straight away (except maybe JJ because it crushes the board, but you block that anyway). I think he probably also raises if he has AcXc, because the NFD and at least one over is a strong draw, and you often make this bet with a weak hand (AJ is near the top of your percieved range here). I think we can almost (not quite) rule out flush draws, because even a hand like KcTc is a strong draw with 2 overs, and he hasn't got many lower cards in his range. I think the vast majority of the time he calls this bet with medium pocket pairs, or weaker Jx. Occasionally he can have a flush draw, maybe some AcXc, KcTc, Qc9c, stuff like that, although as I say, the board does block quite a few possibilities as well.
Turn: This is obviously great for you, I doubt the 5 ever hits him (because you have the Ad and Jd, he's never turned a flush draw either). I think your bet size is good, I'm betting in the $18-$22 range to try and get a call from Jx and 77-TT. The board hasn't changed much, so I don't expect him to fold much of his flop calling range.
River: I'm not sure we're often getting called by 77-TT again, so I like the fact you've sized it on the large side, because we can certainly get calls from Jx. If he has a hand like JT, he can certainly put us on a missed club draw (makes sense with the line we took, and the big river bet as a bluff) and he might try to hero-call.
Now, this is just an odd shove. The CCR line is usually super-strong, and he's only realistically repping a boat or quads. On a flop with flush and straight draws, where you would struggle to fold TP, I really think he would have raised 55 or 66. And you're right, I doubt he's calling with 65s pre-flop here, and even if he did, I'm certain he would raise this on the flop because it's very vulnerable on that board. The only hand I think he realistically has here that beats us is JJ. I think what's happened here is he's made a good read (that we had a Jx), and he's seen an opportunity to try and bluff us out of the pot with a hand that he doesn't consider to have SDV. I'm tempted to say he's more often got a hand like 99 or TT, but he might have JT or QJ here too.
I think this is a call though, although I appreciate it's harder for you to reach that conclusion in the heat of the game. He's occasionally got you beat with JJ (maybe 66 or 55, but less likely), but most often he has a weak Jx or medium pocket pair. This makes sense as well, because you have said he's especially aggressive on the river, so maybe he looks for spots where he can bluff off opponents.