$200 NLHE 6-max: QJ flop ch-r bluff, I hit turn

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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$200 NL HE 6-max: QJ flop ch-r bluff, I hit turn

Villain is 21/16/2, cbets %78 and folds almost %50 to check-raises, so I go for a bluff.

1) pf is icky, w/e. I call because I know I'm ahead of his range, know he cbets too much, and know I can check-raise bluff when I miss. like/dislike?

2) flop ch-r you likey? Pretty standard looking to me given his tendencies.

3) the tough spot on the turn. We bink, but I'm not sure he plays for stacks with 77-JJ anymore, but I think there are enough draws and stuff to maybe just bet it?

If we check do we ch-r or ch-c?

poker stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BTN: $208 (104 bb)
SB: $225.10 (112.6 bb)
Hero (BB): $209.05 (104.5 bb)
UTG: $57.50 (28.8 bb)
MP: $31.10 (15.6 bb)
CO: $295.40 (147.7 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with Q
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J
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3 folds, BTN raises to $7, SB folds, Hero calls $5

Flop: ($15) 4
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5
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3
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(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $9, Hero raises to $28, BTN calls $19

Turn: ($71) Q
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(2 players)
Hero ...
 
Jagsti

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1) pf is icky, w/e. I call because I know I'm ahead of his range, know he cbets too much, and know I can check-raise bluff when I miss. like/dislike?

2) flop ch-r you likey? Pretty standard looking to me given his tendencies.

3) the tough spot on the turn. We bink, but I'm not sure he plays for stacks with 77-JJ anymore, but I think there are enough draws and stuff to maybe just bet it?

If we check do we ch-r or ch-c?

1. I will mix this up with calls/3bets, but calling is fine as long as there's a plan for the hand post flop. It get's pretty costly if we play fit or fold though.

2. Chk/r is fine, so I likey.

3. Now, I'm pretty passive here. I suppose playing for stacks is meh now. I usually go into chk/call mode here, but then we leave ourselves wide open to nasty river stuff and him shoving as well.
 
vanquish

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If we lead turn is it a bet/fold or we playing for stacks?

i think you just have to make a read as to whether or not the guy has it if he's raising (i think he probably has us beat), so you can bet/fold both turn and river i think? it depends what the river card is obv but i think you can get turn value and river value out of this, because ffs he's never gonna put you on a Q!
 
ChuckTs

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But I'm not sure what he does with 77-JJ on the turn, and I'm not sure we can fold to a shove should we bet.

Stack sizes mean we're playing for stacks if we bet this turn. $71 in pot, $170 behind.

So can we really fold turn if he shoves over our bet?

I'm just unsure what kind of range we can put him on and if we get paid off. Are we thinking this is mostly those middle pairs? Maybe 67 type hands?
 
widowmaker89

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Whats his button steal %? If it is as high as I would guess it is I dont think we can b/f here as there are too many 65 type hands, or 6x for that matter, that could possibly raise. Has he been raising his draws? I probably bet and unenthusiastically call if he unfortunately pushes.
 
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I'd just bet/call shove. If he cbets 80% and only folds 50% of this to a c/r then his range is pretty weak. I'm a little out of touch with 6max, but i'd presume that QJ is near the top end of your range here (33-55 shouldn't really be in range tho i spose they could be, but its like 67 and maybe 66-99, etc and tons of whiffed overs). If villain folded like 90% to c/r then i'd just c/f since his range would be strong/wouldn't be floating/wouldn't bet worse than a Q, but 50% isn't folding that much...not sure what history there is tho. And how does a Q change anything for 77-JJ...i'd love it if i could get ppl to fold pps when a random over that is almost never in your range pops up.

Fact is, if villain shows up with a set/67 here then you either got super coolered, or there is no way in hell that 80% cbet/50% fold to cbet raise are correct stats.
 
F Paulsson

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Not a fan of checkraising this flop, because it's way too easy for him to peel in position, and I want him to have serious doubts that his outs are good AND that it's unlikely you're doing this as a semibluff (parlaying him not having an ace with thinking that YOU can't have an ace).

Then there's bet sizing, where you're risking $28 to win $24, meaning that you need a success rate of more than 50%. For reasons mentioned above, I'm not sure you can hope to achieve that.

I like betting/folding the turn. I can't come up with many worse hands that would be likely to raise you here (maybe some kind of combo draw, like Ad6d) so I don't think you're folding the winner often enough when he raises to make betting unprofitable.
 
Jagsti

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Not a fan of checkraising this flop, because it's way too easy for him to peel in position, and I want him to have serious doubts that his outs are good AND that it's unlikely you're doing this as a semibluff (parlaying him not having an ace with thinking that YOU can't have an ace).

So if your not chk/r flop, are you calling and looking to take it away from him on the turn/river, or do you not call pf?
 
dsvw56

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I like betting/folding the turn. I can't come up with many worse hands that would be likely to raise you here (maybe some kind of combo draw, like Ad6d) so I don't think you're folding the winner often enough when he raises to make betting unprofitable.

Question. If the turn goes bet-call, what's your river line? If the draws miss, are we ch/calling?
 
F Paulsson

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So if your not chk/r flop, are you calling and looking to take it away from him on the turn/river, or do you not call pf?

I don't mind the preflop call at all. I'm probably 50/50 between 3-betting and calling vs this type of opponent with QJs. But I also don't think there's anything intrinsically wrong with check/folding this flop. We don't have to show a profit on every flop to play QJs like this, just enough of them.

Question. If the turn goes bet-call, what's your river line? If the draws miss, are we ch/calling?

I don't have a default line for that. Pot size, river card and opponent all weigh in. If it's an opponent who's very passive on the river (low bet-river%) I probably make a small value bet, unless the remaining stacks are really awkward. If it's an opponent who likes to bet rivers, I check/call.
 
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