$200 NLHE 6-max: Overpair deepish in two scenarios

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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$200 NL HE 6-max: Overpair deepish in two scenarios

I remember being very laggy this session. UTG+1 is a decent reg who hates my guts after having stacked him once or twice and stealing his blinds and stuff a lot. He's raised my cbet like every time after I stacked him, and I think I picked up KK here like right after he raised one of my cbets. Keep in mind we're 250 deep against him.

He's 22/17, 3bets 2% over 350 hands, but this session he's on my ass with the 3betting (like %10)so I assume he can open up. No real idea if he flats big pairs or just 3bets them pf, if he's bad enough to raise like 88 after flatting pf on this flop, so I'm not really sure what we do.

BB is kind of unknown, seems like an ok reg, and I have no real numbers on his flop play.

Two scenarios:

1) If we cbet, UTG+1 raises a 'normal' amount and BB folds, what's our line?

2) What's our line when this happens?

IPoker Network $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 250357
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

U3betIFold (CO): $205.25
Donkosauros (BTN): $207.00
Hollywooood (SB): $244.51
NinjaThis (BB): $279.90
Hero (UTG): $486.47
AvoidTheSystem (MP): $560.30

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is UTG with K
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K
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Hero raises to $8, AvoidTheSystem calls $8, 3 folds, NinjaThis calls $6

Flop: ($25.00) 3
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2
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7
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(3 players)
NinjaThis checks, Hero bets $19.00, AvoidTheSystem folds, NinjaThis raises to $39, Hero calls $20

Turn: ($103.00) 9
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(2 players)
NinjaThis bets $71.00, Hero ...

My first thoughts are that I don't really have history with Ninja guy, so I'm inclined to think he's just set mining and hit. I don't often see c/r from weak overpairs in spots like these, so I assume he's pretty much got a very unlikely range of slowplayed overpairs, unlikely bluffs (which don't continue on this brick turn often if ever), and sets. Most likely sets.

For 1), 100bb deep I'm shipping it in while dancing, but 200 deep I'm inclined to flat then give up if he continues on just about any turn?
 
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Zybomb

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On a board this dry and a c/r this small followed by a turn barrel this is a set a whole lot. Unless I have reason to believe otherwise (i.e villain is tricky, would play a middle pair in this fashion, would play 7x in this fashion, bluffs a lot) I'd probably credit him for it on the turn
 
NineLions

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To clarify something for myself; the history relates to whether or not to c-bet the flop in middle position with the known opponent behind? If he's been raising your c-bets every time how much more credit are we giving him here if he raises just because the BB might CR and because of the threat of implied odds with our respective stack sizes? Enough to give up on the turn if he bets again?

And you're happy shipping 100bbs on the flop against the known opponent since he's been on your case, but not necessarily for 124 bbs against an unknown?

On this board the range seems pretty narrow for BB; QQ seems pretty unlikely since he flatted from the BB pre, 99 has us beat, JJ/TT would seem unlikely to take this line of collecting value. If this is a good rep of a set with air/overs/medium pair I think we have to give him credit.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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To clarify something for myself; the history relates to whether or not to c-bet the flop in middle position with the known opponent behind?

Well whether or not to cbet is definitely something to be discussed. Checking to UTG+1 will most likely get lots of bets out of him, but then my decision gets really tough if BB decides to c/r him, as I'd expect. Both BB's value range and his bluff range should widen here as the other guy is probably betting pretty wide. Still something to consider though. I mean c/c down is really odd but is completely unexpected from me with KK.

My question was more 'once we cbet, what do we do if he raises?' though.

If he's been raising your c-bets every time how much more credit are we giving him here if he raises just because the BB might CR and because of the threat of implied odds with our respective stack sizes? Enough to give up on the turn if he bets again?

Well yeah, I'm giving him a lot more, but I'm not sure if it's enough to fold to the flop raise, or call and give up on a blank turn, or whatever. The combination of being deep and having the guy in the middle should make his range for value raising much smaller. With our history, HU with 100bb stacks he might even raise TT for pure value on this board thinking I might spazz with overcards because he's raised me so often.

Here, I think a profitable value-raising range from him would basically only be KK+/two pair (though 32/73/72 aren't really in his range)/sets, but he may be raising stuff like 88-QQ/7x 'for value'. I'm just not sure how much of the latter he's doing (the wider his range, the further I go with the hand).

And you're happy shipping 100bbs on the flop against the known opponent since he's been on your case, but not necessarily for 124 bbs against an unknown?

Yep. Sample size is an issue, but this guy's raised like 5/5 of my cbets and hates my guts. The other guy I have zero history with.

On this board the range seems pretty narrow for BB; QQ seems pretty unlikely since he flatted from the BB pre, 99 has us beat, JJ/TT would seem unlikely to take this line of collecting value. If this is a good rep of a set with air/overs/medium pair I think we have to give him credit.

Yeah I think I agree. I mean he basically either has to be value betting worse (QQ-TT,88,7x,9x flop bluff raise that turned a pair) which is really unlikely imo, or bluffing tons which is also pretty unlikely. QQ-88 aren't in his range often, but I guess he flats the lower part of that range then thinks it's good enough to c/r the flop with, not sure about that though.

He's seen me fold to pretty much every flop raise against the other guy, but I'm not sure if he's the type to notice that and take action with JTs or something. I mean me cbetting after raising utg and having a guy who's raised every single one of my cbets flat behind, I just don't see him going for a bluff raise here.
 
NineLions

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Thanks for the clarifications, Chuck.



And this is other other thing that crossed my mind in this hand, but I think it's pretty hard to guess how observant other players are about hands that they weren't involved in. Even watching coaching vids the coaches don't always keep up with the hands they aren't involved with, though that's probably partly due to talking/explaining while playing.

He's seen me fold to pretty much every flop raise against the other guy, but I'm not sure if he's the type to notice that and take action with JTs or something. I mean me cbetting after raising utg and having a guy who's raised every single one of my cbets flat behind, I just don't see him going for a bluff raise here.
 
F Paulsson

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I was completely confusing the action and who had what stacks when I wrote my first reply to this post. Discovered it in time and now starting over:

1. By "normal amount" I'm guessing you mean to something like $50? Either way, I hate folding. On a flop this dry and ragged, his range for raising probably includes not just bluffs but also a very sizable chunk of "value" hands that you beat. And yes, sets. Since I think the former outnumber the latter quite a bit, my most likely line on this board would be to call the flop, because

a) I don't want to fold, and
b) unless I think I can get him to get super-spazzy and shove-bluff, raising only shuts out bluffs and weaker hands and lets him stack us when he has a set.

I think "wa/wb" is a decent way to think here. I think check/calling the turn is okay, and depending on board texture I think check/calling the river or bet/folding the river can both have merit. I'd be a lot more inclined to bet/fold the river if he bets the turn and the river puts 9, T, J or Q on the board because that'll let him pair up some of his "bluff" hands and we'll get a crying call from hands that likely check back if we check.

If he checks back the turn, we clearly have to bet the river. If we think he knows how to bluffraise the river at all, we can and should call a raise, because unless he rivered a set or the board in some other way makes a monster realistic by the river, there's virtually no hand in his range that he can honestly raise the flop with, then check back the turn and again represent a monster on the river with. People who can bluffraise rivers tend to overdo it.

2. No way you can fold the flop. Even nitty players have some bluffs and defensively played PPs in their range when they checkraise a flop this dry. Add to that the rare times that you turn a set and stack his set and you can safely call. However, I fold the turn. The medium-strength part is now very likely no longer a part of his range and that leaves sets and bluffs - and specifically, bluffs that dare to continue betting (excluding, among other things, any hand that he bluffraised the flop with that has a 9 in it).
 
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1) We call the flop, clearly, seeing as UTG+1's range is almost exclusively split between bluffs and big hands that beat us (smaller overpairs being the only feasible exception). Regardless, if we have reason to believe he is spazzing out then I'm happy to call/call/call, betting the river in the unlikely event that the turn is checked behind, of course.

2) I'm almost tempted to say fold the flop seeing as 99% of the time we're simply going to face a turn bet that we can't call, but this leaves us really open to silly near-minraise bluffs in the future assuming others are paying attention. Two outs plus the minute chance that BB is just getting funky with air and will slow down on the turn - which really can't be stressed enough is a minute chance, plus ridiculous odds (both immediate odds and those implied from the fact that we stack him near-enough every single time if we hit our set) means I suppose we have to call the flop. After the turn bet, nothing but a set makes much sense at all, so we fold.
 
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