$200 NLHE 6-max: KQs in 3b pot, OOP, deep.

$200 NL HE 6-max: KQs in 3b pot, OOP, deep.

This hand gave me lots to think about on virtually every street. It's quite possible I'm getting some of the details wrong, but even in that case, I think the hand is interesting as presented.

Villain is a reg with decent seeming stats; 22/19/4.4, 3-bets 7% and is aggressive on most streets postflop.

We're almost 200BBs deep; if memory serves I think the effective stack was $370.

I open KdQd UTG, and villain 3-bets me on the button. Blinds fold. I consider 4-betting, but he doesn't fold to 4-bets very often. I think folding is out of the question when we're this deep. So I call.

Flop comes Kc7c4d. He c-bets 80% of the time, double barrels 45% and bets river 35%. I decide to check/call the flop, because I'm really only behind to AK and KK and I can't really expect to make much money from JJ/QQ by being aggressive on the flop.

Pot is $52. He bets $42. I call.

Turn is the eight of diamonds, which changes virtually nothing. I think he will check back AK and QQ. I think he will bet AA and KK. I think he puts me on 99-JJ or AQ/KQ. I think he will bet a second barrel with his weaker hands. I don't think I'll ever get calls from worse hands if I check/raise. So I check/call the turn.

Pot is $136. He bets $88. I call.

What's my plan for a non-ace river? Here's what I think:

Pot is 176 + 136 = $312, and we have about $220 left in our effective stacks. Here is where I toyed with the idea of making a small bet and calling a shove. I didn't; I ended up checking, but I like thinking about funky stuff like betting $70 and call if he raised. Here's why:

His range is now either a bluff that tried for two streets to push me off 99-JJ, or it's AK (somewhat discounted because I don't think he'll bet the turn always with that, but ok), KK or AA. I would be extremely surprised to find him with QQ or KJ, or any other set but KK.

I believe he'll bet AA if checked to. He might even bet AK, but perhaps slightly less likely. I think he'll be nervous about betting missed A-high hands, because if I've called two barrels things look dicey for him and he must suspect that I might not want to let go, and his next bet has to be pretty much all-in to work.

If I make a $70 bet, I think there's virtually a 0% chance that he'll raise AA or AK. Against those hands, my $70 bet might save me a little money because I think that his river value bet (had he made one) will be bigger than that.

He will obviously shove KK.

What will he do with AT/AJ/AQ/QJ? Will he give up? Probably. Or will he think that he has enough left in his stack to say "hey, that's a blocking bet, surely he's going to bet/fold" and shove? If we accept that the only legitimate hand that will shove this river is KK and there can be as many as 60 combos of bluffs in his range (discount as you like based on the action), he only needs to bluffshove a very small percentage of the time for me to profitably call (and feel like a genius) the shove. The idea behind the small river donk is to look weak. What would make it work?

Now, as I said, I ended up checking. Part of this is because I'm trying to make my game a bit "simpler" as I have a knack for overthinking things (can you tell?) and the other big part, of course, is that if he wants to bluff the river, surely he can do that without me first betting in to him. Perhaps my block bet will discourage him from bluffing rather than encouraging him. Quite likely.

Thoughts on preflop? Flop? Turn? And omgriver?

Well I see quite a few assumptions here that I don't necessarily agree with, and after thinking about it a bit I feel like you're making them based on assumption that villain is thinking like on your level (which I've noticed you do quite a bit , and is a mistake imo), but it's definitely a line to at least consider.

I'm also not sure about preflop; being this deep I'd think it's more of a reason to fold KQs since we're so often dominated and leveling ourselves into stacking with top pair. That or we can get (maybe unecessarily) tricky and potentially in a lot of trouble. Case in point

Like I said, I don't agree with a few things though: not that it's necessarily the optimal line, but I think he'd expect you to check-raise a set on a Kxx flop, and most probably will put you on a marginal made hand most of the way, so he'll just keep barreling TPTK/AA for value.

I don't see any reason why the hell he won't keep betting a <KK set, nor do I see how he won't shove those hands on the river.

Also, and again not because it's the optimal play, but I think he'll be shoving AK/AA on the river more than you think because I expect him to think you still have marginal KQd p) type hands in your range.

We also have to assume that all those hands he can bluff the river with are both cbetting and double barreled the turn, which isn't too outlandish given his barreling %s. However, that turn is a really bad card to bet, so I think he'll barrel considerably less than his stats suggest on this board.

There's also something to be said about exactly what card drops on the river. I assume a club changes your plan, right? I'm thinking check-fold. Also, out of curiousity, what do you do if you hit your backdoor flush?

I'm not really sure what he'll think about you blocking a blank river. Has to think it's exactly what you have right? Are we really doing this with an underpair? A set? He has to a) think well enough that he understands you're mostly on a marginal made hand here, b) thinks we can fold it to a shove, and c) has the balls to shove the river.

Lots of assumptions.

nobody else? FP has a pretty interesting thought process here...

Overthinking things is definitely a fault of mine. I got some of the stuff in this hand wrong, btw, when I checked the actual hand history. Specifically this: The turn was a 9 and the river was a T. This is kind of important, since it gives at least one of his light 3bet hands a legitimate hand: QJs will have rivered a straight. How big that part of his range happens to be is perhaps something that can be discussed, but it removes KK from being the nut hand which I think changes the argument somewhat.

I'm with you on the problem of being dominated preflop, but I also think domination is a much bigger worry when we're only 100BBs deep. I agree that it's perhaps hard, in reality, to put me on a hand that can beat AK when I only check/call the flop but would you really bet again with QQ on the turn? Bet 3 barrels?

I discussed this hand in quite some detail with Alan today, but I'll say more about that later.

I prefer to have pictures in my thread. Hand histories posted in words are serious weaksauce, because everyone ignores them. Case in point: this thread.

EDIT - I agree with Chuck that KQ top pairs play like trash in a 3-bet pot OOP. Furthermore, he's 3-betting an UTG raiser, so unless your PFR is 20+, I'd expect him to show up with something legit here. I also think its super rare for villains to grow balls enough to shove over a blocking bet on the river, but then again, I never make blocking bets against regs.

c9h13no3 said:

I prefer to have pictures in my thread. Hand histories posted in words are serious weaksauce, because everyone ignores
them. Case in point: this thread.

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I've noticed that a lot of people tend to look at the posted hand history and completely ignore whatever else is written. So sometimes, I like the verbose mode, especially when I have a lot of thought process to convey and also when I'm not interested in someone's one-liner advice. If that makes you less likely to post in this thread, it's a blow I can deal with.

EDIT - I agree with Chuck that KQ top pairs play like trash in a 3-bet pot OOP.

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So you're advocating what? Folding preflop? Folding the flop? I don't think either of those are viable options. Domination can be an issue, but it's an issue chiefly for shorter stacks. ~200 deep, suited connectors have plenty of value.

Furthermore, he's 3-betting an UTG raiser, so unless your PFR is 20+, I'd expect him to show up with something legit here. I also think its super rare for villains to grow balls enough to shove over a blocking bet on the river, but then again, I never make blocking bets against regs.

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Never? Why not?

F Paulsson said:

So you're advocating what? Folding preflop? Folding the flop? I don't think either of those are viable options. Domination can be an issue, but it's an issue chiefly for shorter stacks. ~200 deep, suited connectors have plenty of value.

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well first let's recognize that you wouldn't for even one second consider making this call pre w/ KQo. that much we can all agree on. i think you're overestimating the suited potential just because we're 2 stacks deep instead of one. suited connectors play badly out of position. i think you'd really have to outplay your opponent in a lot of situations where you don't connect with the board in order to make this profitable

since you're OOP, when you do flop a draw your best option is often going to be to c/r, since there are a lot of boards where c/c-ing defines your range as being weak. in this way, being deeper can actually hurt you because when you get all the money in on a draw you're going to be in pretty bad shape against his range, for 2 buy-ins. it's just so different when you're last to act. you only really like the depth when you flop a straight or flush, which is so ridiculously hard to do compared to flopping a set with a pp

essentially you're putting yourself in a spot where you're out of position with a lot of chips behind against a solid player with a hand that, in terms of pair potential, fares really poorly against his range and won't yield much of a return when you do actually make the best pair (and he'll even make you fold it sometimes). that's a lot going against you. the suited thing is just not enough to make up for that with how badly draws play out of position. IMO

just wondering, would you call with 78s? 66?

combuboom said:

just wondering, would you call with 78s? 66?

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No and yes. I'd call with JTs, though.

KQo is an obvious fold, as you say. And preflop seems obvious to me, but perhaps it isn't. Does anyone have a large sample of hands of this kind of situation and can show that it's unprofitable? My sample is tiny.

Personally I'd prefer calling 3 bet with 78s than KQs unless villain is just super aggro.

EvilEmperor said:

Personally I'd prefer calling 3 bet with 78s than KQs unless villain is just super aggro.

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What do you think qualifies as super aggro, and how does the stack size change things for you?

I just hate preflop so much. 7% 3-bet rate is not terribly high. And I don't care how you try to justify this, by calling, you're essentially saying a few things:

1) I'm going to play a big pot, super deep, out of position, with a hand that is mostly just going to flop top pair bad kicker. Just like chuck said, this is a recipe for getting your stack owned. I went through a stage where I played nothing but 200 deep, and you just don't play big pots with top pair this deep, it will own you.

2) KQ is not a dominating hand, so we're not going to flop a king and get KJ to spew a stack to us. Thus, we need to win pots when we miss, and probably a good number of them. And making moves OOP can really suck.

3) We're oop, so even when we flop a bomb-ass draw, its going to be hard to get maximum value when we hit, or we're just going to have to use it for the fold equity and jam it on the flop. But either way, those aren't big money plays last time I checked, and I don't think that's going to make up for when we stack off with KQ to AA/AK/KK on an Kxx board and other situations like that.

c9h13no3 said:

I just hate preflop so much. 7% 3-bet rate is not terribly high. And I don't care how you try to justify this, by calling, you're essentially saying a few things:

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Care or not: I'm putting in $14 more to see a flop versus an aggressive player with KQs, when there's $350 left behind. Now, to get more specific, I think you have some fairly flawed assumptions here, starting with how wide you think 7% is. On a K-high flop, I'm dominated - beat - by 19 combos out of the 90 hands that he 3-bet me with. He's going to c-bet a K-high flop near 100% of the time, because he either has it (e.g. AA) or he doesn't (ATo and wants to bluff), so when I flop a king, I get to call a bet with 72% equity. Not bad.

1) I'm going to play a big pot, super deep, out of position, with a hand that is mostly just going to flop top pair bad kicker. Just like chuck said, this is a recipe for getting your stack owned. I went through a stage where I played nothing but 200 deep, and you just don't play big pots with top pair this deep, it will own you.

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Either the pot is big, or the stacks are deep. But from the preflop call, you can't claim that the pot is going to be big while the stacks are deep. In big blinds, this pot will be big. But when you talk about a "big pot" it is mostly only meaningful in terms of % of a stack, at least when someone argues that you don't want to "play a big pot with KQ."

2) KQ is not a dominating hand, so we're not going to flop a king and get KJ to spew a stack to us. Thus, we need to win pots when we miss, and probably a good number of them. And making moves OOP can really suck.

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Your "thus" here is not a "thus" at all. Your B doesn't follow your A. We don't need to win a stack the times we outflop him, we just need to win enough on average to offset the $14 that we invest in calling his 3-bet. But more on this further down.

3) We're oop, so even when we flop a bomb-ass draw, its going to be hard to get maximum value when we hit, or we're just going to have to use it for the fold equity and jam it on the flop. But either way, those aren't big money plays last time I checked, and I don't think that's going to make up for when we stack off with KQ to AA/AK/KK on an Kxx board and other situations like that.

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And here is another B that doesn't follow A. It's not OK to assume that he has us dominated on the one hand, but that he won't pay us off if we outdraw him on the other. He either has a big hand and we'll lose money on our top pair, but win money on our draws, or he has a weaker hand and we'll win money on our top pairs but not get paid off with our draws. Him costing us our entire stack while simultaneously not be willing to stack off does not compute.

Your arguments don't make a strong enough case for this being a trivial fold before the flop (I assume that's your conclusion since you "hate preflop so much," otherwise I find that to be an odd choice of words). It's difficult to get a decent sample for these situations in HEM, but I'm a big winner when flatting 3-bets OOP with KQs and QJs with deep stacks. If someone has a database that shows something different, I'd be interested in seeing more of it.