$200 NL HE 6-max: KQs in 3b pot, OOP, deep.
This hand gave me lots to think about on virtually every street. It's quite possible I'm getting some of the details wrong, but even in that case, I think the hand is interesting as presented.
Villain is a reg with decent seeming stats; 22/19/4.4, 3-bets 7% and is aggressive on most streets postflop.
We're almost 200BBs deep; if memory serves I think the effective stack was $370.
I open KdQd UTG, and villain 3-bets me on the button. Blinds fold. I consider 4-betting, but he doesn't fold to 4-bets very often. I think folding is out of the question when we're this deep. So I call.
Flop comes Kc7c4d. He c-bets 80% of the time, double barrels 45% and bets river 35%. I decide to check/call the flop, because I'm really only behind to AK and KK and I can't really expect to make much money from JJ/QQ by being aggressive on the flop.
Pot is $52. He bets $42. I call.
Turn is the eight of diamonds, which changes virtually nothing. I think he will check back AK and QQ. I think he will bet AA and KK. I think he puts me on 99-JJ or AQ/KQ. I think he will bet a second barrel with his weaker hands. I don't think I'll ever get calls from worse hands if I check/raise. So I check/call the turn.
Pot is $136. He bets $88. I call.
What's my plan for a non-ace river? Here's what I think:
Pot is 176 + 136 = $312, and we have about $220 left in our effective stacks. Here is where I toyed with the idea of making a small bet and calling a shove
. I didn't; I ended up checking, but I like thinking about funky stuff like betting $70 and call if he raised. Here's why:
His range is now either a bluff that tried for two streets to push me off 99-JJ, or it's AK (somewhat discounted because I don't think he'll bet the turn always with that, but ok), KK or AA. I would be extremely surprised to find him with QQ or KJ, or any other set but KK.
I believe he'll bet AA if checked to. He might even bet AK, but perhaps slightly less likely. I think he'll be nervous about betting missed A-high hands, because if I've called two barrels things look dicey for him and he must suspect that I might not want to let go, and his next bet has to be pretty much all-in to work.
If I make a $70 bet, I think there's virtually a 0% chance that he'll raise AA or AK. Against those hands, my $70 bet might save me a little money because I think that his river value bet (had he made one) will be bigger than that.
He will obviously shove KK.
What will he do with AT/AJ/AQ/QJ? Will he give up? Probably. Or will he think that he has enough left in his stack to say "hey, that's a blocking bet, surely he's going to bet/fold" and shove? If we accept that the only legitimate hand that will shove this river is KK and there can be as many as 60 combos of bluffs
in his range (discount as you like based on the action), he only needs to bluffshove a very small percentage of the time for me to profitably call (and feel like a genius) the shove. The idea behind the small river donk is to look weak
. What would make it work?
Now, as I said, I ended up checking. Part of this is because I'm trying to make my game a bit "simpler" as I have a knack for overthinking things (can you tell?) and the other big part, of course, is that if he wants to bluff the river, surely he can do that without me first betting in to him. Perhaps my block bet will discourage him from bluffing
rather than encouraging him. Quite likely.
Thoughts on preflop? Flop? Turn? And omgriver?