$200 NLHE 6-max: KJs. I river top-two and fold.

F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Total posts
5,799
Awards
1
Chips
1
$200 NL HE 6-max: KJs. I river top-two and fold.

--------------------
HAND 1
--------------------

$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details


SB: $211.20 (105.6 bb)
CO: $271.08 (135.5 bb)
UTG: $190.12 (95.1 bb)
Hero (BTN): $200 (100 bb)
BB: $200 (100 bb)
MP: $200 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with J
diamond.gif
K
diamond.gif

UTG calls $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $8, SB calls $7, BB folds, UTG calls $6

Flop: ($26) K
club.gif
2
spade.gif
7
club.gif
(3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $16, SB calls $16, UTG folds

Turn: ($58) 5
club.gif
(2 players)
SB bets $39, Hero calls $39

River: ($136) J
heart.gif
(2 players)
SB bets $148.20 and is all-in, Hero folds

Results (listed below in white, highlight to see): $136 pot ($3.50 rake)
Final Board: Kc 2s 7c 5c Jh
SB mucked and won $132.50 ($69.50 net)



The limper is a big fish. 44/15 and pretty aggressive over a decent sample. SB plays 21/17, but is really tight (folds 92% to steal in SB) in the blinds. I've been playing fairly ABC tag today and I don't think he views me any differently, if he has many hands on me at all.

The fact that the fish is in the pot widens his range. But the only way I could get myself to find a call on the river is if I think it can be a bluff at least some of the time. But I can't find a bluff in his range that I think makes sense, unless he peeled something like 99 on the flop and then turned it into a bluff on the turn and river. And that just doesn't seem right.
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
He could have AA or AK, but his range is mostly sets (trying to keep the fish in) I think.
 
S

Skidmark

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 16, 2008
Total posts
383
Chips
0
tough spot obviously need more info but dont you think that if his plan on the turn is to shove the river for value (sets and flushes) he would bet slightly bigger on the turn so that he wouldnt need to over bet on the river? (unless he puts you exactly on KJ which is unlikely) What is his won at showdown rate? is he a winning player? do you think he is capable of turning AcJx into a bluff or making a thin value shove with it?
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Total posts
5,799
Awards
1
Chips
1
He's a winning player. I don't know about his W$@SD; over the 5k hands or so I have on him, I don't think that value would mean anything significant.

He might turn AcJx into a bluff, but I don't see how he got to the turn with it. That's really the problem: I don't think he can have many missed flushdraws (if any at all).
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
I changed my mind on this...I think he never has a set so he has only flushes and one-pair hands, likely with a high club.

Given his tendencies, he can't have many flushes in his range other than precisely AcQc, so I think this is a call. I mean, if he had AA or AK with the Ac he could play this the same way.

Question Frederik: Why did you call the turn bet if you're going to fold the river on what has to be the best card in the deck for you?
 
Deco

Deco

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2009
Total posts
2,544
Chips
0
I hate these spots.
Theres next to nothing in his bluffing range and next to nothing in his value range.

Sets are next to never here (maybe JJ with a club in)
There is only AcQc and AcJc for two combos of flush.

Yet the aint many bluffs. Best I can think off is as you said a middling pocketpair with a club in taking us to town.

**** it I call. There are around 8-12 combos of pocketpairs that could do this. If there seeing having the club in their hand as an opportunity to donk they'd need to be doing this 20% of the time for us to make this call.
Yer I suck but I just can't fold when the range their representing is 2combos large. You got any postflop aggression reads/stats on him?
 
Deco

Deco

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2009
Total posts
2,544
Chips
0
He could have AA or AK, but his range is mostly sets (trying to keep the fish in) I think.

You would be correct and this would be a piss easy call if these were in fact in his range but they are not.
He'd have 3bet them preflop.
 
Deco

Deco

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2009
Total posts
2,544
Chips
0
I didn't notice the fish in the hand. Do people actually do this with sets?
I dunno I can't see him shoving that river with a set.

The slightest possibility would nudge me towards a fold though as the set combos possible compared to the flush combos is huge.
lol this spot is truly horrible:D
 
S

Skidmark

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 16, 2008
Total posts
383
Chips
0
his bet sizing doesnt fit for anything that beats you other than JJ which has only one combination.
also you say that it unlikely backdoor flush draws dosnt get to the turn but the flop is so dry that he may easily be floating with all of his range.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Total posts
5,799
Awards
1
Chips
1
Question Frederik: Why did you call the turn bet if you're going to fold the river on what has to be the best card in the deck for you?

The turn bet can be (often will be) a defensive bet with a weaker hand that doesn't want to get sucked out on, e.g. 88-JJ, and I expect those hands to check almost any river.

Had he bet small(er) on the river, I'd have called, btw. The overbet just doesn't make sense to me as a bluff, but then again, people have started overbet bluffing the river more. But that brings me back to the original quandary, which is that I don't see many bluffs in his range to begin with, unless he's being super sexy and turning 88 into one.
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
You would be correct and this would be a piss easy call if these were in fact in his range but they are not.
He'd have 3bet them preflop.

This would obviously be standard but he may be trying to keep the UTG limper fish in the hand.

As you said he's repping soooo thin I think it's a call.
 
Sysvr4

Sysvr4

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 17, 2009
Total posts
277
Chips
0
Random thoughts...

I would have made a slightly larger bet on the flop. Not because I worry that 2.6-1 to the first caller is denying them sufficient odds, but if SB calls, we're then laying almost 4-1 to the guy behind him with this size bet. To prevent that, this is a good time to bet the pot or close to it, IMO.

I'm folding the turn. SB is tight, he's not bluffing here nearly often enough to make calling with a hand that doesn't contain a club profitable, since 24% of the time, your hand is completely worthless on the river. If you honestly don't think he's got it here on the turn, then raise for value and/or a free showdown. Seems to me calling is the worst option.

Finally, his river bet isn't that much of an overbet. It's only slightly larger than the pot, which is something that would merit consideration before you call the turn. You won't always have to call off your stack on the river once you call the turn, but it definitely happens often enough to warrant consideration. I agree that as played the river is a fold.
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
I just think that if he's never making this play with 1-pair and the bare Ace of clubs then him value shoving the nut flush is just bad. If he has AcKx he can shove the river fully expecting you to fold a chop.
 
Z

Zybomb

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 12, 2009
Total posts
372
Chips
0
This is a flush very very often. The times it isn't it's complete air or something like Ac7x.

Given the flop call/turn lead/river shove line, not a lot of air makes sense.

What c/c's the flop? Random Kings, Sets, flush draws, occasional pocket pairs/7x.

What then leads the turn? Flushes, Kings with no clubs, sets and occassional Ac7x or something weird

What then shoves the river? Flushes and occasional Ac7x type nonsense

Villain is a winning player, he isn't flatting a raise from the SB with A7o. This is flush a ton. Fold

To add a comment to the poster who asked why hero called turn if he planned to fold the river when he improved, like was already said the turn bet is a wide range, but the river shove polarizes his range to mostly bluffs and flushes... and given the flop cc few bluffs make sense.... if there was a straight draw or something else possible that whiffed it might be a different story, but his bluffing hands are just too few and far between unless villain is setting up some FPS with his turn c/c 3 handed, which I wouldnt default to.
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
But if he doesn't have bluffs in his range the only flushes he might have are AcQc or maybe AcJc. Given the presence of the fish in the pot, he might call wider and NEVER 3-bet pre and thereby also widening the range with which he might c/c the flop, imo.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Total posts
5,799
Awards
1
Chips
1
But if he doesn't have bluffs in his range the only flushes he might have are AcQc or maybe AcJc. Given the presence of the fish in the pot, he might call wider and NEVER 3-bet pre and thereby also widening the range with which he might c/c the flop, imo.
Only AcQc and AcJc? I don't know exactly how much the presense of the fish widens his range, but surely more than this?
 
Deco

Deco

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2009
Total posts
2,544
Chips
0
Only AcQc and AcJc? I don't know exactly how much the presense of the fish widens his range, but surely more than this?

AcTc at a push?
Remember the Kc is on the flop so KQ is never here.
 
Deco

Deco

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2009
Total posts
2,544
Chips
0
also you say that it unlikely backdoor flush draws dosnt get to the turn but the flop is so dry that he may easily be floating with all of his range.

He's out of position with UTG still to act.
He is never holding air here otherwise we could snap call this bad boy.

The lack of air in his range is what makes this a tough spot.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Total posts
5,799
Awards
1
Chips
1
AcTc at a push?
Remember the Kc is on the flop so KQ is never here.

Anyone should really be pretty happy to be in this flop with quite a few speculative hands given the (likely) presence of the fish. I might just flat every suited ace in this spot, quite a few suited connectors, and I know that I'm not the only one doing this. I'm tighter than most versus steals, and I still widen my range drastically at the prospect of playing a threeway pot with a fish.
 
Deco

Deco

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2009
Total posts
2,544
Chips
0
Anyone should really be pretty happy to be in this flop with quite a few speculative hands given the (likely) presence of the fish. I might just flat every suited ace in this spot, quite a few suited connectors, and I know that I'm not the only one doing this. I'm tighter than most versus steals, and I still widen my range drastically at the prospect of playing a threeway pot with a fish.

Fook me that's a big adjustment.
Is this standard? I don't make any adjustment at all here other than add all pps to my range.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Total posts
5,799
Awards
1
Chips
1
I don't know how standard it is, but I feel pretty confident it's +EV. I obviously don't have a ton of hands to filter for that satisifies the condition that a fish limped in and the button raised while I'm in the blinds holding a suited ace, but I do know that I'm showing a profit flatting with A2s-ATs versus a button steal and I can only assume that the presence of the fish makes it even better.

(I don't have a ton of hands where I flat either since if it's just a reg opening I'm much more prone to 3-betting a hand like A2-A5 rather than flatting it but it's happened a couple of hundred times this year at least)
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
i agree that flatting a wider range vs. button and a fish limper is likely profitable but we start with the read that this guy is an ultra nit in the blinds, even to LP raises. so i'm not sure how wide this guy is calling even with the fish.
 
IveGot0uts

IveGot0uts

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 15, 2008
Total posts
444
Chips
0
This spot makes me want to light myself on fire so I won't have to think about it anymore.

That being said, I am curious as to the reason why you called the turn if you're getting off it to the best card in the deck for you, as a previous poster had asked. Given what we know about this guy I don't think he's checking the river very often.

I think its probably a fairly close spot here, because his huge hands I would think will shove here, since its barely over pot, and will get a lot of bluff cred, but it gets a lot of bluff cred for a reason, this is a bluffy spot. What is he putting you on here? He sees the situation same as you probably, milking the fish, knows that you're looking to iso him, and decides to come along. This means his range for you has to open up as well. You suddenly have a lot of busted flush draws that were just cbetting, random king holdings, maybe weak sc flushes, of course the top of your range is in there too to temper the bluff desire. The more I look at this the more I think crying call. Put yourself in his shoes, I'm curious to see what you think he sees.
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
I think Fred's recent posts are pretty interesting because I want to call this and can't fold QQ in 4-bet pot fast enough. That's probably because I'm a donkey.
 
Z

Zybomb

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 12, 2009
Total posts
372
Chips
0
This spot makes me want to light myself on fire so I won't have to think about it anymore.

That being said, I am curious as to the reason why you called the turn if you're getting off it to the best card in the deck for you, as a previous poster had asked. Given what we know about this guy I don't think he's checking the river very often.

I think its probably a fairly close spot here, because his huge hands I would think will shove here, since its barely over pot, and will get a lot of bluff cred, but it gets a lot of bluff cred for a reason, this is a bluffy spot. What is he putting you on here? He sees the situation same as you probably, milking the fish, knows that you're looking to iso him, and decides to come along. This means his range for you has to open up as well. You suddenly have a lot of busted flush draws that were just cbetting, random king holdings, maybe weak sc flushes, of course the top of your range is in there too to temper the bluff desire. The more I look at this the more I think crying call. Put yourself in his shoes, I'm curious to see what you think he sees.

This is all correct, but the point you are missing is a lot of his range is showdownable and thus he wouldnt turn it into a bluff by shoving. He'd likely check and see if you'd bluff, or bet small.

Like I originally stated a reasonable check calling range for villain on this flop would be random kings, sets, flush draws, and occasionally 7x or random PPs like 88

Now based on this range, he now leads a club turn.... again what hands in this range would do this.... a reasonable range would be flushes, sets, Kings with no club in their hand and occasionally Ac7x or if villain is very creative 8c8x or something

Now he shoves the river.... out of the range that c/c'd the flop then bet the turn which hands would do this? Flushes absolutely. Sets no way (theyd either check or bet smaller) Kings with no clubs no way (they'd likely check or if not they'd bet small. Ac7x sure he'd bluff here since he doesn't expect to be able to showdown and win, or again if villain is very creative 8c8x or similiar which again he knows he can't win by showingdown.

Villain was described as a winning player, thus we can very likely eliminate A7o from his flatting range preflop out of the SB. Which leaves a random PP that villain is creative enough to turn into a bluff. If this were the unlikely case I think we'd have some read on him about this already, and since we don't i classify it as highly unlikely. Hence this is a flush a ton. The times it's not, villain setup some elaborate plan of c/cing this flop intending to bluff clubs and again if this were his MO we should have some read to indicate so thusfar...and we don't. Since his range once he shoves is bluffs and flushes, there arent too many bluffs that make sense (nothing whiffed)

Finally we'd be willing to call if villain bet smaller in this spot, since his range now includes hands we beat as opposed to just bluffs and hands that beat us, when he shoves.
 
Folding in Poker
Top