Originally Posted by IveGot0uts
This spot makes me want to light myself on fire so I won't have to think about it anymore.
That being said, I am curious as to the reason why you called the turn if you're getting off it to the best card in the deck for you, as a previous poster had asked. Given what we know about this guy I don't think he's checking the river very often.
I think its probably a fairly close spot here, because his huge hands I would think will shove here, since its barely over pot, and will get a lot of bluff cred, but it gets a lot of bluff cred for a reason, this is a bluffy spot. What is he putting you on here? He sees the situation same as you probably, milking the fish, knows that you're looking to iso him, and decides to come along. This means his range for you has to open up as well. You suddenly have a lot of busted flush draws that were just cbetting, random king holdings, maybe weak sc flushes, of course the top of your range is in there too to temper the bluff desire. The more I look at this the more I think crying call. Put yourself in his shoes, I'm curious to see what you think he sees.
This is all correct, but the point you are missing is a lot of his range is showdownable and thus he wouldnt turn it into a bluff by shoving. He'd likely check and see if you'd bluff, or bet small.
Like I originally stated a reasonable check calling range for villain on this flop would be random kings, sets, flush draws, and occasionally 7x or random PPs like 88
Now based on this range, he now leads a club turn.... again what hands in this range would do this.... a reasonable range would be flushes, sets, Kings with no club in their hand and occasionally Ac7x or if villain is very creative 8c8x or something
Now he shoves the river.... out of the range that c/c'd the flop then bet the turn which hands would do this? Flushes absolutely. Sets no way (theyd either check or bet smaller) Kings with no clubs no way (they'd likely check or if not they'd bet small. Ac7x sure he'd bluff here since he doesn't expect to be able to showdown and win, or again if villain is very creative 8c8x or similiar which again he knows he can't win by showingdown.
Villain was described as a winning player, thus we can very likely eliminate A7o from his flatting range preflop out of the SB. Which leaves a random PP that villain is creative enough to turn into a bluff. If this were the unlikely case I think we'd have some read on him about this already, and since we don't i classify it as highly unlikely. Hence this is a flush a ton. The times it's not, villain setup some elaborate plan of c/cing this flop intending to bluff clubs and again if this were his MO we should have some read to indicate so thusfar...and we don't. Since his range once he shoves is bluffs and flushes, there arent too many bluffs that make sense (nothing whiffed)
Finally we'd be willing to call if villain bet smaller in this spot, since his range now includes hands we beat as opposed to just bluffs and hands that beat us, when he shoves.