$200 NLHE 6-max: J high flush on paired board, Value Bet this River?

$200 NL HE 6-max: J high flush on paired board, Value Bet this River?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 24/16/1.5

Any value in jamming this river?

Full Tilt, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

UTG: $200 (100 bb)
Hero (MP): $272.85 (136.4 bb)
CO: $336.45 (168.2 bb)
BTN: $170.05 (85 bb)
SB: $340.95 (170.5 bb)
BB: $500.85 (250.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with J T
UTG folds, Hero raises to $7, 2 folds, SB calls $6, BB folds

Flop: ($16) 9 9 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $11, SB calls $11

Turn: ($38) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $24, Hero raises to $65, SB calls $41

River: ($168) 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ?

I think 9's might be the only hand that calls such a large bet that you still beat. I don't think poorly played pocket pairs can call such a large bet here, even if he is a borderline passive/caller.

I think I like reraising a little larger on the Turn to be able to get it in on the river easier. He might still call with overcards, 7.8, & pp's especially if he has a spade in them....

At this point I think I like value-betting around 80-100 althought I'm honestly not sure it's optimal... someone else help out here...

Yeah I'm not seeing anything you beat that would call a shove here. Over pair should be scared of this board and villain is a decent player. Yup I think value-bet is the only way to go here.

Shoving is fine. Smaller flushes, stubborn 9s, random other one pair hands will all call.

If he thinks a little bit he can realize that you can be semibluffing turn/bluffing river with something like AsKx here quite a bit.

Yea, im always kind of out thinking myself at 200NL. I shoved and he flipped A5s for the higher flush. Just a cooler, but they always have me second guessing when its for $270

ChuckTs said:

Shoving is fine. Smaller flushes, stubborn 9s, random other one pair hands will all call.

If he thinks a little bit he can realize that you can be semibluffing turn/bluffing river with something like AsKx here quite a bit.

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There's only one smaller flush that I see possible and just calling the turn is a really weird/terrible way to play that hand.

Just wondering why shoving is better than value-betting smaller. I think I have trouble betting over the pot in these situations. Is this something that get's called by worse hands often enough that I should start doing it, and against what types of opponents?

bw07507 said:

Yea, im always kind of out thinking myself at 200NL. I shoved and he flipped A5s for the higher flush. Just a cooler, but they always have me second guessing when its for $270

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wow, is it just me or did he play this hand pretty bad? i know it worked out for him, was there some history that made this the right move for him?

Against people who will call with worse, lik I do this when I'm playing agaisnt fish and bad tags who can't lay down trips or 88 just because they suck, and when I've got history with a 'good' reg who can put me on a lot of missed draws.

Just to be clear I don't think this is a slamdunk shove; it might actually be better to bet small. It's at least closer than my first post makes it sound mostly since (as you pointed out) there really aren't any flushes he can have.