$200 NLHE 6-max: I raise, then fold, river.

$200 NL HE 6-max: I raise, then fold, river.

Villain is a reg. We have not tangled much in this session, and the Party screenname I'm on is only a few days old so it's unlikely that he's managed to put the "spewtard" note that I'm sure most of my opponents have on most of my screennames.

I don't think there's a whole lot to analyze here; while playing and timing out on the river, I thought it looked close. Now I don't think so anymore. But if anyone wants to object, feel free.

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HAND 1
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$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details


SB: $73.75 (36.9 bb)
MP: $204 (102 bb)
Hero (BTN): $210.05 (105 bb)
UTG: $231.41 (115.7 bb)
CO: $238.60 (119.3 bb)
BB: $178.94 (89.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with T T
UTG folds, MP raises to $6, CO folds, Hero calls $6, SB calls $5, BB folds

Flop: ($20) 8 2 K (3 players)
SB checks, MP bets $12, Hero calls $12, SB folds

Turn: ($44) Q (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks

River: ($44) T (2 players)
MP bets $28, Hero raises to $70, MP raises to $186 and is all-in, Hero folds

hands that beat you and make sense here:

AJ and J9: 32 combos if he opens J9o. 20 combos if he only opens J9s and all AJ
oversets: 0 combos, he bets bets bets those.

Hands that you beat and make sense here:

two pairs with a T, i.e. KT, QT and T8? 9 combos if he opens all the offsuit ones, between 3 and 7 otherwise.
two pairs without a T, i.e. KQ. 9 combos. Possible if he has you tagged as a frequent floater, but weird nevertheless. you would expect a bet/bet/bet here.
AK/AA overvalued and weirdly played after trying to induce a float? 18 combos, but quite unlikely.
Pure air: almost never I guess.

you have to pay $116 for a $413 pot, so you need to be good 28% of the time. The only way you get there is if he spews sometimes with AA/AK here. Not super lilely for a reg.

Overall, i tend to agree with the fold. Not sure I'd make it myself, though.

Although unlikely because of the way the hand played out, we're also beat by KK and QQ. Perhaps he turned a set and was looking to check/raise a float.

A word on the timing tells, btw: He didn't think much before he shoved over my raise. While that means that he may have "overplayed" QQ and shoved without noticing that there was a straight on the board, I still don't beat QQ. And I really don't see him shoving KQ without at least considering what I might be up to, and he didn't seem to think for very long (2s, I estimate, although that's hard to gauge).

Maybe the real question here is: is there value for you in raising river?

I think a decent reg will double barrel this turn with almost all of his air and draws since you're repping basically kings, underpairs and floats, and it's a perfect barreling card. So on the turn I'm putting him on either like JJ/Qx/maybe a weak king, or a monster that's afraid you'll fold and is looking to ch-r, so KQ/KK/QQ. I think 88/22 will be slightly more inclined to bet because it would be more likely you have a king you can call down with.

So if we're looking at sets and KQ it would mean we're clearly ahead more often than not, and we call.

If we include J9s/AJ it more than flips in his favour and we can't call.

Include QT/KT and it's reeeeally close given our price; we're pretty much even money if I did my mafs right.

It's questionable if he shoves even two pairs (likely not KT/QT, but maybe KQ) over our river raise, and as such it looks like we're not good often enough to call.

The question of whether or not to raise the river at all is a good one. He might call with the semi unlikely KQ/KT/QT, but I don't expect lower sets to play this way too often, so maybe just calling is good.

I think there's value in raising the river. Although I think KQ can be discounted somewhat on account of him checking the turn (although he might have been going for a check/raise) it could also be AK looking for pot control and I'm also likely to be looked up by QT and KT. I intentionally made only a small raise as to entice calls from these hands, because I realize my river raise looks super strong.

Chuck, when you're looking at the range here, I think you need to weight it strongly towards AJ/J9. I mean, AJ will play this way most of the time (like you said, some players would double barrel his gutshot draw, but not all regs are aggressive enough for that) whereas it's a very small chance (risk) that he's doing this with KT. In fact, I'd be more inclined to believe he bluffshoves with a hand like a missed club draw rather than a two-pair hand.

Is this ever a naked bluff? Maybe. It's not common for someone to bet/3bet bluff the river, but I suppose it's doable. I still think that the 16 combos of AJ is by far the heaviest part of his range, though.

Fair enough. I don't agree that the average reg won't double barrel that turn more often than not (we're using the term 'reg' really vaguely), but w/e. Either way we're still saying we can't call the river right?

I really doubt anyone bet-3bet bluffs this river. Especially if we're assuming they're the same type who are passive enough to check back AJ/J9 on that turn.

Anyways I think we both agree it's a fold.

looks pretty good to me

I dont think the $6 preflop raise is a big pair, It almost 100% looks like QK...

I make the call here, he obviously has QK, checks the turn because he isnt good enough to bet two pair, doesnt want you out of the hand, then the bet on the river isnt even pot sized I dont think....

QK I guarantee it !!

10 10 10 was the winner... easy call...

oh ya it is party poker, those players are no goood

ChuckTs said:

Fair enough. I don't agree that the average reg won't double barrel that turn more often than not (we're using the term 'reg' really vaguely), but w/e. Either way we're still saying we can't call the river right?

I really doubt anyone bet-3bet bluffs this river. Especially if we're assuming they're the same type who are passive enough to check back AJ/J9 on that turn.

Anyways I think we both agree it's a fold.

Click to expand...

Oh, definitely. At this point I think it's mostly a minor dispute over how likely he is to have one of the different hands that beat me; not really that I'm beat

While it is tempting to go for a value raise on this board with TTT, I think there is more value to get to the showdown with what will often be the best hand.

After he checks the turn, then bets the river even with the str8 card, he'll show up with the str8 fairly often.

bfw0082 said:

I dont think the $6 preflop raise is a big pair,

Click to expand...

Well 3BB shouldn't look like anything but a playable hand if youre using the single raise or fold advice (or single raise by position advice).

GrantGreen said:

While it is tempting to go for a value raise on this board with TTT, I think there is more value to get to the showdown with what will often be the best hand.

After he checks the turn, then bets the river even with the str8 card, he'll show up with the str8 fairly often.

Click to expand...

I disagree with this. I think there's a lot of value to be had in raising, especially a small raise. He would bet the river with KJ, AK, KQ, KT, QT and he would call a small raise with most (if not all) of those hands.

Looks good. Tons of value in raising river and villain is *never* bluffing here (no dynamic and if you look at the board it is almost impossible for him to have complete air or even a weak made hand that has to turn into a bluff, not to mention that i doubt anybody at nl200 has the balls to 3B bluff here). Almost always J9/AJ as 88/22 should never check turn and should never shove river (and imo same goes for KK/QQ...QQ is almost never the case since prob doesn't even bet flop and combinatorially unlikely and KK also doesn't check turn/prob flats river raise, since you could even have AJ with an iffy flop call).

Btw, if you take a note on somebody at party does that note not stay with your new username (could be wrong, but if so some regs may know who you are).

notes don't carry over, no.