$200 NLHE 6-max: Hypothetical situation

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RAFC24

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$200 NL HE 6-max: Hypothetical situation

Hey guys,

This is not a real hand that was played per say but it is an example I got from one of these million websites that deal with poker, and it highlights a typical situation that I would like your thoughts on.

Middle position player raises and we call on the button with AKo. (a good argument could be made for re-raising but it wasnt the case)

Villain is a decent TAG

Both stacks are deep.

Flop: Ks Th 7h

First question: Do you guys consider this board to be coordinated?

I would say yes...at the limit of coordination. It's not like a 8h 9h jh coordinated board but I would say so.

pfr bets into us (pot size)

Option # 1 fold: I dont think so we have a good hand here. And we have to expect the pfr to make a c-bet here. So its pretty standard so far.

Option # 2 Call: IMO calling gives us no real advantage. We are taking heat with tptk and we are building a pot without a big hand or one that can improve to a bigger hand.

Option #3 Raise: Since it's a pretty coordinated board, our opponent likely could be drawing to a straight, a flush or has a weaker pair than we do.

Raising protects our hand and makes it more expensive for him to draw and possibly we draw value from a weaker pair.

How do you guys view the options at our disposal here??


If this post gets some comments I'l post the exact theme of the example the website was trying to convey.

But their conclusion differs slightly from some reliable theory from another source.

Note:Im not trying to judge the quality of the source of different information, its just that this seems like a very common situation that it cant hurt that we talk about it.

Thanks!
 
trewtrew

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raise flop because its likely you have the best hand and we want to protect it from a draw. Also raise for value (they could have KJ, KQ and we want to extract money from them). Calling is OK but you don't gather any information. He could have KK or A2o. Folding is not an option (not for one bet anyway)
 
trewtrew

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just re read post - if he's TAG then he probably not got A2o, could still be air though.
 
slycbnew

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Cool idea for a post - though I think maybe it should go in either the learning or strategy forums? Doesn't really matter, just a suggestion.

Can we assume 100bb's effective stacks?

pfr makes a psb - is the size relevant to the overall analysis, or is that a placeholder? It's a bit large for a cbet, that's why I ask.

So, first question - I consider this coordinated w straight and flush draws present. It's not as wet as the J98 flop you describe, but yeah, coordinated.

I don't suppose our AKo includes the Ah? I assume not, since it might change how we intend to play the turn.

So, w the options, yeah, folding is out.

If we're thinking his range pf to open MP is say 12% (prob too tight, but...), and that he's less likely to cbet QQ/JJ, that leaves a few sets, two pair hands, and lots of draws/pairs/air - we're pretty solidly ahead of his range, I think. Raising is my kneejerk play here. There are a bunch of turn cards I'm not going to be happy seeing (esp 9's through A's, I'm not too worried about a TAG holding 98 in MP, and hearts). In addition, there are some solid draws on the board, so there are worse hands that'll call a raise. I don't think there are a lot of weaker pairs that are calling a flop raise - the worse hands I'd think might call a flop raise are maybe QQ/JJ and the draws, all other hands that call or re-raise a flop raise have us beat.

I don't like allowing pfr to set the price for drawing, but I want pfr to draw. I don't like to think of betting to "protect my hand" so much as to charge draws - but he's already made a psb, which is higher than the price I would've charged for him to draw, so I have mixed feelings about the protection justification for raising.

The main argument to call instead of raise would be (I think) to keep in worse hands that won't call a flop raise and to allow pfr to fire a second barrel - if the turn is a blank, we're still ahead of his range and can shove over another psb.

All this is off the top of my head, looking forward to the discussion.
 
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Reraise pre.

Ok so we didn't.

"Both Stacks are deep". Does this mean standard 100 BB stacks or Deep as in 200+.

Is the Ace of hearts in our hand? Is the King of hearts in our hand?

These details left out are important.

Merits of Calling: Basically the standard for calling when we only have one pair, folding will likely push out most hands we beat and only keep hands that beat us around, allows opponent to double barrell us on the turn, might c/c a turn bet etc etc

Merits of Raising: Board is pretty wet, our hand is underrepped preflop, since board is drawy we may get action from lesser Kings.

So assume he pot opens to 7 and we call, the blinds fold putting 17 in the pot. He then pots the flop for 17 leaving him with 176 left if he is playing 100 BB stacks and 376 if he is playing 200 BB stacks.

My standard would be to raise/call (raise and call if he shoves) if were are 100 BBs deep and probably just call if we are 200 BBs deep. Reasoning being that although I normally dislike raising with TPTK, this board is wet enough and we are not the preflop aggressor that he should 3 bet shove most draws 100 BBs deep and occassionally spaz out with KQ. We'd raise to 65 or so, so he'd have another 125-130 to 3 bet shove ontop (enough to make us fold) which should convince him that it's a profitable play with most draws. This should more than make up for the times that he has AA TT 77 KT or KK.

At 200 BBs Deep it might change things around. We don't really like putting 200 BBs in with one pair very often, which can lead us into some uncomfortable spots if villain 3 bets us. I'd rather flat and look for a safe turn and see what happens. If he bets again we can just call again if he checks we'll naturally bet. If he does bet the turn and we call and the river flushes out and he leads anything besides a blocker looking bet we can comfortably fold (since our hand looks so much like a draw it's highly unlikely villain will bluff this river). If it blanks again, we can call down a third time (we can't fold since again our hand looks like a draw so villains can easily fire a third bullet in a spot like this. Flatting allows us to keep inferior hands around, allows villain to double and or triple barrell into us and also doesn't put us in weird spots if we are 3 bet deep. The only real downside is that we don't protect our hand against draws, but I think that is outweighed if we are this deep by being able to control the pot size and allow villain to misread our hand strength and put money in the pot with hands that would fold to a raise

As far as the "is the ace of hearts in our hand" question... that can change a lot. If it is it means that 1) we arent too worried about a turn flush since we can redraw to the nuts on the river and 2) it eliminates alot of his strong drawing hands that would 3 bet semi bluff (nut FDs and gut shots). With this card in my hand it'd make me lean toward calling a lot more since it seems raising will just pick up the pot most of the time and not get us any more value, but flatting may let us be c/c'ed or bet into again... and of course if the turn does flush we can bet if checked to or call a bet again easily knocking that villain doesnt have the nuts and that we can redraw to them. If the King of hearts is in our hand, although we are now drawing to the 2nd nuts, it does still eliminate KhXh hands which villain would consider monsters on this board.

Edit: I also have to respond to this part of the post

Option # 2 Call: IMO calling gives us no real advantage. We are taking heat with tptk and we are building a pot without a big hand or one that can improve to a bigger hand.

Option #3 Raise: Since it's a pretty coordinated board, our opponent likely could be drawing to a straight, a flush or has a weaker pair than we do.

Raising protects our hand and makes it more expensive for him to draw and possibly we draw value from a weaker pair.

This is very wrong. By calling we arent building a pot, we are CONTROLLING the pot. Raising is building the pot! Sure it protects against draws, but it also likely folds out all inferior pairs and a lot of KJ hands that will call and c/c a blank turn (and possibly river) but can not continue for a flop raise since they don't want to play a ballooned pot. Basically these hands WANT to get to showdown but can be blown off their hand, so if we don't blow them off of it they will get to showdown by calling bets and not playing for stacks. You describe our hand as not a big one or one that can improve to a big one, but then why would we want to actively balloon the pot (and possibly play for stacks) with it? And if raise/folding is being suggested, then calling is billion times better.

The main point is that a lot of the times hands that will continue for raises are big draws and hands that beat/crush us (AA KK KT TT 77) and the hands that we are trying to draw value from (smaller draws and inferior pairs/outkicked Kings) will generally not give us the value we are trying to get.

If this were a tournament where stack preservation was more important than extracting max value, I'd be more inclined to "raise to protect my hand" in some spots, but in a cash game extracting max value trumps stack preservation since we can always reload, thus we should be playing each hand trying to extract the max value out of it
 
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R

RAFC24

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Hi guys,

Lots of interesting stuff to mull on in your responses. I got some additional details to clear up a few of your inquiries.

slycbnew:

1) Yes let's assume it's a deep stacked cash game with 200 bb's per player. We could maybe re-do the example with either or both beeing a ss but the way the example played out, it looks like they are both deep, although it doesnt specifically mention it in the example.

2) There was no info on the size of the c-bet but in my experience a c-bet is typically 3/4 to pot size so I made it pot size. Of course we can discuss the diffferences in either size c-bets.

3) Our AK suits. Sorry didnt include it but in the example they are Ad Kc. So no hearts in our hand.

Zybomb:

1) In the example they didnt 3bet preflop with the Ad Kc, they just called.

2) Yes 200 bb's. The example doesnt specify stack sizes but I believe it played out like a deep stack.

3) Ad Kc

Also he's a TAG, the example doesnt specifically mention it but lets assume we are up against a reasonnably intelligent opponent and the decent TAG is pretty common out there, if im not mistaken.

Zybomb, I'm offering the call, raise fold options because..well these are the range of moves we can make. :)


This is very wrong. By calling we arent building a pot, we are CONTROLLING the pot. Raising is building the pot! Sure it protects against draws, but it also likely folds out all inferior pairs and a lot of KJ hands that will call and c/c a blank turn (and possibly river) but can not continue for a flop raise since they don't want to play a ballooned pot. Basically these hands WANT to get to showdown but can be blown off their hand, so if we don't blow them off of it they will get to showdown by calling bets and not playing for stacks. You describe our hand as not a big one or one that can improve to a big one, but then why would we want to actively balloon the pot (and possibly play for stacks) with it? And if raise/folding is being suggested, then calling is billion times better.

The main point is that a lot of the times hands that will continue for raises are big draws and hands that beat/crush us (AA KK KT TT 77) and the hands that we are trying to draw value from (smaller draws and inferior pairs/outkicked Kings) will generally not give us the value we are trying to get.

To answer your comment, i'l explain how I see a hand like TPTK. If we raise with it, all weaker hands like Kj and weaker pairs will indeed likely fold out before the turn and we are missing out on additional streets of value. Allthough we did win his pfr and his c-bet

But tptk while a decent hand, isn't really that great IMO. I would rather make a raise that makes it just too expensive to chase draws and folds out weaker pairs and win the pot right there. Calling will, as I mention not give us any additional info on villain's hand and it lets him see his draw-completing turn card. I mean it's just a pair, a good one yeah, but still just a pair. So that's why im trying to balloon the pot by raising with it.

If we are re-raised, then yeah, I would dump my hand at this point.

Point im making, and btw I think your view of the hand is very very valid, is im simplifying my decision making process as much as possible. With my raise I will either win the pot, or lose it. I'd rather make this a simple decision with a hand like top pair top kicker and know exactly where I stand.

If you guys see a flip side to my reasoning or something just plain wrong with it, please let me know.

I will also take some time to digest the rest of your comments before i comment more.

Thanks!
 
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Z

Zybomb

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But tptk while a decent hand, isn't really that great IMO. I would rather make a raise that makes it just too expensive to chase draws and folds out weaker pairs and win the pot right there. Calling will, as I mention not give us any additional info on villain's hand and it lets him see his draw-completing turn card. I mean it's just a pair, a good one yeah, but still just a pair. So that's why im trying to balloon the pot by raising with it.

If we are re-raised, then yeah, I would dump my hand at this point.

If you guys see a flip side to my reasoning or something just plain wrong with it, please let me know.

The problem with this thinking is that we are effectively treating our AK as if it is 4s3s.

How?

Well we are raising our PFRs c-bet, hoping to fold out weaker kings smaller pairs and drawing hands -- in other words, we're bluffing. If they decide not to fold and reraise us back we're done and we fold.

This is fine with 4 high, when with AK we have a very important part that 43 does not -- showdown value.

If we can get to showdown, we have some value in showing down TPTK where as 4 high has none. So why are we treating the two hands identical? We aren't trying to win the hand right here, we're trying to lose as little as possible when behind and win as much as possible when ahead.

You mentioned that we gain no information by just calling... but sure we do. We have position. We get to see what he does on the turn. And even blind to that, information isn't worth letting us get blown off our hand

Like I said, 100 BBs deep I'd probably prefer raise/calling and 200 BBs deep I'd prefer calling. If I did raise, there's absolutely no way in the world I'd be raise/folding though, particularly now that you've mentioned that we don't have the A or K of hearts in our hand.... Easily AK, AhQh AhJh KhQh, KhJh QhJh will 3 bet if we raise the flop all hands that we beat or tie with (QhJh would be a tiny statistical favorite). We can probably add in AhXh and KhXh (although there arent many combos a TAG will raise K2s-K9s) as well as occassionally a spaz out with KQ convinced you are on a draw.... then of course he'd also likely 3 bet hands that crush us KT TT 77, with AA he'd probably just call. Thats roughly an equal aount of combos he'd raise as he'd call with (depending how many AhXh show up). With inferior hands like JJ KJ KQ or even AQo AJo, they may fire blanks on blank turns putting you on a draw and trying to win the hand right therer, giving us additional value out of our hand that we lose if we raise.

Bottom line: Villain is a tag. Chances are the majority of his preflop raising hands that flopped a draw of some kind on this board FLOPPED A BIG DRAW. Hence raising isn't going to "protect" our hand since their draw is probably big enough to 3 bet, let alone being too big to fold to a raise... And if our plan is to raise/fold, then it's just suicide.

If we raise we have to be willing to go all the way. 200 BBs Im not, 100 BBs I am, hence why I don't mind raising 100BBs deep (and at 100 BBs people will obviously stack off lighter so villain can show up with hands that we crush once in a while also) and I do mind it 200 BBs deep.

We are also in position, thus the rest of the streets are easier to play. If the turn blanks and he bets, it's an easy call. Yea he could have KT 77 TT or AA but he also will double barrell a lot of cards bc we look like we're drawing and a double barrell will take down the pot a large enough % of the time to be profitable. If then the river flushes and he bets large, it's an easy fold, since ther vast majority of villains will not bluff this card. If it blanks and he bets large we'll fold since most villains will bluff smaller if they are going to triple barrell this river since we appear to be on a busted draw and thus can not call any bet at all regardless of the size. This large bet usually means he has a big hand and expects to win the pot uncontested a lot bc u have a draw but occassionally you might have a hand that can call but he can beat and his bet looks bluffy. The only problem here is villain might occassionally bet large with big draws that missed but more often that will fall into the next scenario where if it blanks and he bets medium, it's an easy call since it can be a 3rd shell hoping to fold out all whiffed draws
 
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