$200 NLHE 6-max: EP suited connectors against raise/calls

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Teppersinger

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Live game in NYC, started full ring but it's late, so only 6 of us left. I have $110 left, all others are very deep (between $400 and $1000). I have been playing TAG, not so much by choice, but because the others are playing very LAGgy (e.g. 35/20 I'm guessing). It's 1/2 but standard raises are $12-$15. I started deeper but had to lay down a couple times, so even at 55 BBs, I'm playing a short stack strategy (given the standard raise size). The others see me as tight, probably around 14/10 or so.

I am UTG with 89s. I limp, Hijack raises to $15, CO calls, Button calls, blinds both fold. What should I do? I think I'm too short stacked to call here, although that's not an indefensible play. If I hit my hand hard (5% chance), I could potentially double-up plus a dead $30 (assuming one caller). So 5% of $250 = $12.50 EV, but it costs me $13 to go for it, so negative EV (and that assumes I double up when I hit).

What's the EV of a shove? With my image and original raiser's image, I figure to get everyone to fold about 40% of the time. If I get a caller, I figure I'm usually 40/60 against one or two overcards--on the action, I'm probably not up against an overpair, but it's possible. So EV=
40% x $50 = +$20 (if everyone folds, and pre flop there is no rake)
60% x (40% x $248) = -$6 (with one caller with two overcards, and a $5 rake).
So a shove looks good, if I can scoop the pot PF 40% of the time (and there is no overpair).

What do you think? Shove or fold?
 
rssurfer54

rssurfer54

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Don't limp. Don't play short stacked. \thread.
 
jbbb

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WTF at limping 89s. Playing 89s atall with $110 left and $15 average open raise is pretty disgusting.
 
bgomez89

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Live game in NYC, started full ring but it's late, so only 6 of us left. I have $110 left, all others are very deep (between $400 and $1000). I have been playing TAG, not so much by choice, but because the others are playing very LAGgy (e.g. 35/20 I'm guessing). It's 1/2 but standard raises are $12-$15. I started deeper but had to lay down a couple times, so even at 55 BBs, I'm playing a short stack strategy (given the standard raise size). The others see me as tight, probably around 14/10 or so.

I am UTG with 89s. I limp,

I literally stopped reading there.

Most FR nits will say to fold this preflop and I agree. I would also agree because you're to short to be playing 89. Lastly, don't limp if you're the first one in, you need to raise
 
WVHillbilly

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I literally stopped reading there.

Most FR nits will say to fold this preflop and I agree. I would also agree because you're to short to be playing 89. Lastly, don't limp if you're the first one in, you need to raise
+1
 
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Teppersinger

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Guys,
I understand the argument not to limp, but I do it for balance VERY occasionally, because I am also limping QQ+ UTG every time against these LAGs. When they raise and call behind premium hands, the EV is great, and I avoid the problem of open-raising to $10 and getting 4 callers, where I'm an underdog even with AA and I can't lay down on the flop because of their range.

So when i limp 89s, If they all limp as well, I am getting 55:1 implied odds. When they raise, I fold or shove. 55 BBs isn't that short, unless I open $15 myself, which I won't do.
So let's agree that you would open-raise, fine. I didn't. My question was: fold or jam after the raise/calls?
(does anyone read the EV analysis?)
 
bgomez89

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Guys,
I understand the argument not to limp, but I do it for balance VERY occasionally

stopped reading there.

1)You don't need to balance at 200nl, people are lolbad and don't notice
2)You can't make this play profitably mainly because of your stack size(correct me if i'm wrong guys)
 
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baudib1

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Don't play shortstacked in this game ffs.
 
seachicken

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Playing short stacked in general isn't always bad but in this game i don't think it would be the best but i will get to that later. Why are you short stacked? Do you feel you are out matched? or is this a case of not bringing enough money?

I play a lot of live poker and i bet you played your 89 hoping to limp in with this hand the triple up not double up. If that was the case than i could see the play but you state in your post you only think you will double up. Problem is given your stack you are UTG and will not have position the rest of the hand so calling wouldn't be good at all.

You must fold. You are missing several things in your ev. What if you get 2 callers or if you are facing an over pair or even an under pair plus what if all three call. I think you are missing some key information to really make this play. What do you know about the three players in the pot. What you are basically saying is that you are trying to balance your play but why. This could be a profitable move if you were doing just that, making a move. Say you know the Hijack likes to raise too much when someone limps and the the co and button both know this and will call with mediocre hands and raise with solid hands. You also know that the Hijack will lay a hand down given pressure. If all this was the case you could have made this play but then you wouldn't be asking the question. Has this group seen you limp with KK, AA and then shove? Are all three players left aware you are a nit?

Look at this hand a different way. Say you raised to $6 from UTG and high jack raised to 15-20 then if you shoved you have a more believable story as a tight player with a short stack. Also just because everyone Else is raising 6x-8xbb's doesn't mean you should. If you want to limp in this case a raise of 3x would be a limp and could build a pot worth limping with 89s.

To play 89s short stacked you need to know that you will have a high probability to not just double up but triple up. I play in a card room in a deep stacked tough game. I will buy in lite because i know i will triple up when i do hit my hand if i am short stacked but i will not extract the same value full stacked. My stack size doesn't scare away the completion and i will get action but that is only one game and one group of people. I can tell you that i will not be playing 89s from utg in that game.
 
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Teppersinger

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Thanks SeaChicken! That's extremely helpful.
I like the idea of a $6 raise, since that doesn't make the play -EV if called (I can still make 20x the bet, so the effective stack isn't too shor\), and I agree it makes the story better for an overshove. With my $2 limp, they could figure I was getting cute with a small pair or suited connectors (which I was), but with the 3x raise, they can't feel as comfortable with that assumption. And even though I would indeed limp with QQ+, I can't be positive they all know it.
To your point, it was 3:30am and I had been playing with the same guys for 5 hours, so we knew each other's images (at least for that session). The Hijack was raising 25% of hands, so clearly he's light a lot, and the other guys are calling in position because they are so deep and figure to put OOPs to tough decisions. Which is why it's not so bad to be shorter-stacked--they make their raises and calls based on the other deep stacks, and if I'm patient with a short stack (which I guess I wasn't in this case), I can just feast on the dead money.
That's also why I didn't chip up--when it gets that late and I'm tired, and I'm behind a bit (I had been up to $350 in the session, then down to $110, so it felt like I was stuck by over a buy-in), I tend to play a little shorter, just because I'm afraid I'm not playing my best poker. (You could argue I should stop playing, but I only get to play once a week, so....)
For the guys who think live-game 200nl players are bad and you don't need to balance: please come join us on Bleecker Street in NYC. There are plenty of fish but the guys still there at 330am are tough LAGs (which is also why they are so deep at that point).
 
bgomez89

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If its too tough, why are you playing there?
 
seachicken

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Thanks SeaChicken! That's extremely helpful.
To your point, it was 3:30am and I had been playing with the same guys for 5 hours, so we knew each other's images (at least for that session). The Hijack was raising 25% of hands, so clearly he's light a lot, and the other guys are calling in position because they are so deep and figure to put OOPs to tough decisions. Which is why it's not so bad to be shorter-stacked--they make their raises and calls based on the other deep stacks, and if I'm patient with a short stack (which I guess I wasn't in this case), I can just feast on the dead money.
That's also why I didn't chip up--when it gets that late and I'm tired, and I'm behind a bit (I had been up to $350 in the session, then down to $110, so it felt like I was stuck by over a buy-in), I tend to play a little shorter, just because I'm afraid I'm not playing my best poker. (You could argue I should stop playing, but I only get to play once a week, so....

I can completely understand why you were short stacked and really not a reason to leave. I am about an hour away from local casino and will stay longer than i should too. Sounds like in this case playing suited connectors with position could be even more profitable with multiple callers looking to hurt other deep stacks. Thats like a game i play in. Its a crazy 5/10 or 2/5 game that always plays bigger because of raising and people with 300-500bb's.

Playing short stacked for a reason is normally +ev. I like to play short, well medium stacked, and go after other medium stacks in live games. You can put a lot of pressure and win more per hour and not have to worry about losing a larger buy in. Another plus is you will get a large stack to look you up and can double up on a hand they would have ran from otherwise.

I like the small out of the ordinary raise in a live game because it makes everyone question what you are doing. I don't think it would work as well online but live its like you are saying i have a big hand. Most competent players will at least think about what you are doing and only call if they have a hand or raise with great hands. You just can't do it that often.
 
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baudib1

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Playing shortstacked in what you consider to be a tough game at 3 a.m. is beyond retarded.
 
rssurfer54

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I take back my initial suggestion.

Open shove pre :)
 
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