$200 NLHE 6-max: EP suited connectors against raise/calls
Live game in NYC, started full ring but it's late, so only 6 of us left. I have $110 left, all others are very deep (between $400 and $1000). I have been playing TAG, not so much by choice, but because the others are playing very LAGgy (e.g. 35/20 I'm guessing). It's 1/2 but standard raises are $12-$15. I started deeper but had to lay down a couple times, so even at 55 BBs, I'm playing a short stack strategy (given the standard raise size). The others see me as tight, probably around 14/10 or so.
I am UTG with 89s. I limp, Hijack raises to $15, CO calls, Button calls, blinds both fold. What should I do? I think I'm too short stacked to call here, although that's not an indefensible play. If I hit my hand hard (5% chance), I could potentially double-up plus a dead $30 (assuming one caller). So 5% of $250 = $12.50 EV, but it costs me $13 to go for it, so negative EV (and that assumes I double up when I hit).
What's the EV of a shove? With my image and original raiser's image, I figure to get everyone to fold about 40% of the time. If I get a caller, I figure I'm usually 40/60 against one or two overcards--on the action, I'm probably not up against an overpair, but it's possible. So EV=
40% x $50 = +$20 (if everyone folds, and pre flop there is no rake)
60% x (40% x $248) = -$6 (with one caller with two overcards, and a $5 rake).
So a shove looks good, if I can scoop the pot PF 40% of the time (and there is no overpair).
What do you think? Shove or fold?