$200 NLHE 6-max: Classic semi-bluff at 200NL
I played an interesting hand on Bovada
200NL. Let me know what you guys think of my line. I really don't have many reads on these players, but none of them have done anything too wacky. I'd say that they are all standard-ish players maybe around 23/18/4.
Hero (UTG): $507.51
Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is UTG with QcTc
Hero calls $2.00, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to $10.00, Button folds, SB folds, SB folds, BB calls $8.00, Hero calls $8.00
I'd usually open for a raise here (or maybe fold on tighter days), but I decided that I'd definitely not want to face a 3bet so I planned on limp calling given that my hand plays well multiway.
Flop: ($31) 2d Ac Kc (3 players)
BB checks, Hero (UTG) checks, UTG+2 bets $27, BB folds, Hero raises to $57, UTG+2 calls $30.
My reasoning here is that on with aggression on multiple streets - I can certainly get an average player to fold an Ace or a King. Once UTG+2 c-bets, I put him on something like AxJx, AxTx, or AxQx maybe AKo. All of these things cannot take too much heat. On top of this, I have tons of equity against these hands with 9 clubs and 3 non-club jacks = 12 outs or about 47-48% against these hands. With villain at a pot-sized bet remaining (about $147) My plan is to shove all non-club, non-jack turns (figuring that I can maybe siphon more money if I hit)
Turn: ($145) Qs (3 players).
Hero bets all-in $147, UTG folds
I figure with this shove I can represent A2, 22, and maybe even JcTc. Even if he calls, I am most likely live to 2 queens, 3 tens, 4 jacks, and 8 other clubs (14 outs).
Do we think this plan is +EV? Or should I just call turn and look to value-bet my flush/straight when I hit?