Originally Posted by slycbnew
I'm not viewing betting here as a means to split the pot, it'd have to be w the intent of scooping the pot after everyone checks to us by getting both better hands to fold if the better hands are marginal (A3xx type hands and 78xx type hands) - the idea that we could split the pot is a fallback if one way or the other we're dominated and get called (A2xx may not raise out of fear of being quartered, a fh should raise, unless it's a lousy fh that's afraid of a better fh). But the idea is to represent a hand like A26x, which might get better hands to fold (and might not).
If they aren't marginal (i.e., A2xx and a fh), we're going to get raised and we're going to have to fold I think - this play would really be better w a deep stack than a short stack, that's why I think the shove as a ss isn't nec bad here - like BBB, I think this should be a 2/3psb to full psb, and I def think it's a bet/fold.
If nobody has anything at showdown, we scoop. +$11
If someone is passively playing a better low or a straight, we split. +$5.50
If 2 players are passively playing 2nd nut highs/lows, we lose. +$0
Nobody has anything, they all fold (same result as checking). +$11
Someone was passively playing a better low or a straight, they call, we split. +$5.50
Someone was passively playing a better low or a straight, they fold, we scoop. +$11
Someone raises, we fold. -$ (the size of our bet).
I'm horrible at math and I don't know if I'm looking at the outcomes properly. But, I think we'd need to get someone to fold a second nut high/low more than 60% of the time for our bet to be profitable. Our bet only gets us an extra 2.5 big blinds "some times".
With 4 other players and 1 left to act, I don't like it.
I hate bet/fold. I think it's bad for our image. I'd rather get a cheap showdown, and maybe scoop, with a hand I maybe should've bet. Then I'd feel like I could bet spots like this and get one way/2nd nut hands to fold... but that might be a different egg all together.
I really do see what you're saying and I'm not trying to be argumentative but, I sense a learning opportunity here. So, I'm going to press the issue.