200 6Max - I get squeezed and see a flop w 99

Villain is 39/20, and although my sample was only a few hundred hands, his squeeze% was 8% for what that's worth. His stack was only $170. His postflop aggression factor was 1.9, I think.

A reg opens for $7 UTG, I call in the CO with 99, and the 39/20 raises to $30 from the BB. Reg folds. I tank for a little while and toy with the idea of shoving. I end up calling, because I have position and I think I can get away from my hand on broadway boards.

The flop comes T-3-3, pot is $65, and he bets out for $50. This is about as safe a flop as I can realistically hope for, and I try to decide how to proceed. I can shove here, trying to protect my hand from overcards, or I can peel the flop and see if I can get him to bluff all-in on the turn.

The turn is an 8, he shoves, offering me 255:90 (or a little less than 3:1).

I run through my options again, try to decide if I'm overplaying my pair but decide that it looks like he's trying to get me to fold, so I don't.

Good? Awful?

If he plays all his bluffs and all his made hands the same way, I have a clear call, because his range includes AK and AQ (of which there are 32 combos) and JJ-AA (of which there are 24). But is AQ as likely as JJ or AA?

cbet% and turn cbet% (too few hands to that?) ? If it's high enough i like. Not a huge fan of ending up playing for stacks, but i think every street is fine on its own.

also, your hand converter (love it, btw) left out the suits. Any flushiness ?

No; rainbow flop. Sorry, I should have mentioned that.

His c-bet% and double-barrel frequence WAS high (which helped me in my decision) but I'm wary about the usefulness of those numbers in 3-bet pots. Thoughts on that? Do they apply?

F Paulsson said:

His c-bet% and double-barrel frequence WAS high (which helped me in my decision) but I'm wary about the usefulness of those numbers in 3-bet pots. Thoughts on that? Do they apply?

Click to expand...

Not literally, but they do give indications on the player's style.

A player with a high cbet% is probably cbetting 100% of his squeezing range now that he has to play OOP, and i do think you're a ahead of his squeezing range on that flop. And then the odds are just too good on turn.

Villain showed up with JTs, i guess?

I really don't like defending 99 the way you did because you're not deep enough. Way too many bad flops will hit.
I think you're supposed to ship this preflop if you feel his squeezing range is reasonably wide. 8% isn't particularly wide btw.

When he bets $65 on the flop, does he only leave $75 behind? In this case I'd just stick it in right there. You can't fold that board after calling pre.

Yeah I'm shipping this pf most of the time unless the original opener is really nitty, and therefore the squeezer's range will probably be a lot tighter.

Postflop we really aren't getting very many good flops, and are most of the time in a pretty shitty spot equity-wise.

Doing this with KQs on the other hand and shoving flops like these or flops where we have like overs+GS or OESD is much better. When we get called with the 9s we're usually drawing to 2 outs.

I'd just ship it in pre. Way to hard to know which flops are good or bad. If he is squeezing light then you just fold way too much on K or A flops even tho he probably doesn't have either all that often (KQs, AK, AQ is about it for value). + you are good vs these hands preflop and you are going to get stacked if villain has TT+ anyways on alot of flops.

Shoving pre is +EV, says my 1337 maths (assuming 8% is the true number, and that he calls with TT+, AQ+)


Fold equity: (3.3/8)(44) = 18.15
Equity versus his range when I'm called: (4.7/8)(0.6*(-163) + 0.4*(184)) = (4.7/8)*(-97.8 + 73.6) = -14.1

EV = $4.

And yeah, I agree with all your other points, Chris... And Taylor and Feitr.

By the way, this is the sort of passive/FPS tilt that starts creeping into my game when I run like shit. Seriously, **** february.

Grawr.