€20 NLHE Full Ring: Are you ever folding this?

Thinker_145

Thinker_145

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iPoker - €0.20 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 107 BB
UTG: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 12.31, PFR: 8.72, 3Bet Preflop: 5.69, hands: 393)
UTG+1: 77.3 BB (VPIP: 12.49, PFR: 5.01, 3Bet Preflop: 4.40, Hands: 4,226)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 14.81, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 2.30, Hands: 278)
MP+1: 136.4 BB (VPIP: 23.89, PFR: 15.04, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 116)
MP+2: 121.2 BB (VPIP: 14.66, PFR: 8.40, 3Bet Preflop: 3.04, Hands: 4,602)
CO: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 20.54, PFR: 16.52, 3Bet Preflop: 6.76, Hands: 224)
BTN: 126.45 BB (VPIP: 16.20, PFR: 12.85, 3Bet Preflop: 6.56, Hands: 181)
SB: 146.3 BB (VPIP: 28.74, PFR: 19.54, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 89)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8:heart: 8:spade:

UTG raises to 3.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 calls 3.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2.5 BB

Flop: (11 BB, 3 players) T:diamond: A:diamond: 8:club:
Hero checks, UTG bets 13.75 BB, MP+2 raises to 31 BB, Hero :eek:

I don't remember the last time I felt scared having flopped a set on a board with no flush and straight. I mean set over set happens but usually by the time you give it a thought you have already put so much in that you can do nothing about it. But this is different.

We are talking about the nits of nits here. Not just pre flop but this guy plays very passively post flop and I know it. He could have KQdd but I don't think he would raise so much IP with it. The only flush draw he might play that aggressively is QJdd and we have 59% EV against that.

The only hand that we are crushing here is ATs and he is definitely playing that very aggressively. But given the UTG raise is ATs in the MP+2's range of calling?

To me it really feels like TT more than anything else. The UTG most probably has AK but he could also have AA? I know this is all so negative thought but what I am saying is that having put only 2.5 BB into this pot could we just fold it?
 
T

tomnovember

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I can hardly fold here. Shove and be not afraid of set over set. QdJd, Jd9d, AT, A8 or even T8 will reraise here
 
Thinker_145

Thinker_145

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I can hardly fold here. Shove and be not afraid of set over set. QdJd, Jd9d, AT, A8 or even T8 will reraise here
The MP+2 pretty much never has A8 or T8 and very unlikely he has J9dd.
 
Figaroo2

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Ok lets look at the combos then.
for UTG lets give him
AA =3 KK =6 QQ =6 AK =12
MP is calling 6% of his range. Id include everything including AA as if he three bets the utg then he may as well turn them face up.
99=6 TT =3 JJ=6 QQ = 6 KK=6 AA=3 AK=12 Aqs=3

As there are two players we can't double count
We are ahead of 39 combos and behind 6.
UTG probably cbets 100% so we are only behind his aces which is too unlikely to fold yet.
So what does MP raise with TT AA AK. We are behind 6 and in front of 12.
I think its too early to fold...call and see what UTG does.
He is folding his KK and QQ and calling with AK and calling or raising with AA.
if he shoves easy fold.

Its actually equally likely that you are facing 2 players with AK as facing a set.
call and fold to a shove from either.
 
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Thinker_145

Thinker_145

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Thanks for the analysis but really we just call? I feel we have a shove or fold decision here no? I am honestly not too worried about UTG as I would not expect him to have over bet the pot with top set.
 
atlantafalcons0

atlantafalcons0

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Set vs set happens so rarely I'm getting the money in here always. If your opponent(s) have a set here it's a cooler. Don't fold sets on the flop with no possible straight or flush. Ever.
 
Figaroo2

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Thanks for the analysis but really we just call? I feel we have a shove or fold decision here no? I am honestly not too worried about UTG as I would not expect him to have over bet the pot with top set.

We are in a wa/wb scenario. MP has shown a ton of strength and you want to shove into it with bottom set. We either crush his AK and he folds or we are crushed by a higher set and although you say you aren't worried by utg he is still in the hand. Use your position and gather as much info as you can to assist your decision making. By shoving you are losing the value of position and making his hand easy to play
Imo if utg has AK he may still call behind you which is more money in the pot for you . There are still two betting rounds to go what is the rush with these tight ranges its unlikely anyone is improving their hand here.
 
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hffjd2000

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The only hand he probably has which we are beat is TT. All other hands we win.

Without hesitation, shove.
 
TheGodson

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Yeah no way you can fold. Call or shove. Calling is good against an opponent who will bet all 3 streets with AK, but fold to a re-raise. Also if your opponent will barrel when he misses on his draws then calling is best.

Shoving is probably standard though.

Never fold.
 
suby_rafael

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Shove here all day long for value. You have both of them crushed - one of then could be drawing as there are straight and flush draws out there.

Make em pay for their draws, we have enough money in the pot to win and by shoving we don't mind if they fold their draws.

But if they do not have a draw, we want them to think that we have a big draw and hence they will be enticed to call with worse. :D
 
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tomnovember

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Thanks for the analysis but really we just call? I feel we have a shove or fold decision here no? I am honestly not too worried about UTG as I would not expect him to have over bet the pot with top set.

Whatever, have to shove here.
 
Thinker_145

Thinker_145

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Whatever, have to shove here.

Ya you guys are right it really can never be folded.

Now let me ask one more thing. How does the situation change if this was a rainbow board?

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk
 
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suby_rafael

suby_rafael

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Now let me ask one more thing. How does the situation change if this was a rainbow board?

Then you can simply flat call the 3bet made by MP+2 on the flop and lay a trap. Atleast that's what i would do on a dry board.:p
 
Thinker_145

Thinker_145

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The result of this hand.

I shoved, UTG folded and MP called with TT. Oh well couldn't do anything about it although honestly I did have a strong feeling I am beat before shoving so like I was mentally prepared lol.
 
H

hffjd2000

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The result of this hand.

I shoved, UTG folded and MP called with TT. Oh well couldn't do anything about it although honestly I did have a strong feeling I am beat before shoving so like I was mentally prepared lol.

Your action is totally right. In this particular hand, its just that both of you hit the flop.

In the long run though, your play is profitable.
 
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GWU73

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You hit your hand on a board where hands like AK, AQ, and AT will play aggressively on the flop, possibly stacking off. Big cards that have made a draw may put it in too. Poker is a gambling game and you fear exactly 2 combinations of cards. Ship it. It is ok to lose a stack even vs that player in this situation. Good play!
 
skrsh76

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exact same situation I was in today when I new a NIT (original UTG raiser) raised my 3/4 donk bet in a MW single raised pot on a dry board. I had middle set and he had JJ for a top set :(
 
shomy21

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It's really hard to somebody have set too, so good push for sure. I had the situation that somebody had set too but I never can't fold there.
 
Aces2w1n

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shove 1+


Just remember we are out of position with 88s.. sometimes you can 3bet light and it's a good spot for a squeeze/steal



Just remember the tighter the player, the higher chance he'll fold most flops... as long as we cbet and represent a strong hand.
 
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