€20 NLHE Full Ring: Are you ever folding this?
iPoker - €0.20 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (BB): 107 BB
UTG: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 12.31, PFR: 8.72, 3Bet Preflop: 5.69, Hands: 393)
UTG+1: 77.3 BB (VPIP: 12.49, PFR: 5.01, 3Bet Preflop: 4.40, Hands: 4,226)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 14.81, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 2.30, Hands: 278)
MP+1: 136.4 BB (VPIP: 23.89, PFR: 15.04, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 116)
MP+2: 121.2 BB
(VPIP: 14.66, PFR: 8.40, 3Bet Preflop: 3.04, Hands: 4,602)
CO: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 20.54, PFR: 16.52, 3Bet Preflop: 6.76, Hands: 224)
BTN: 126.45 BB (VPIP: 16.20, PFR: 12.85, 3Bet Preflop: 6.56, Hands: 181)
SB: 146.3 BB (VPIP: 28.74, PFR: 19.54, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 89)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero
posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero
UTG raises to 3.5 BB
calls 3.5 BB, fold
calls 2.5 BB
Flop: (11 BB, 3 players)
checks, UTG bets 13.75 BB
, MP+2 raises to 31 BB
I don't remember the last time I felt scared having flopped a set on a board with no flush and straight. I mean set over set happens but usually by the time you give it a thought you have already put so much in that you can do nothing about it. But this is different.
We are talking about the nits of nits here. Not just pre flop but this guy plays very passively post flop and I know it. He could have KQdd but I don't think he would raise so much IP with it. The only flush draw he might play that aggressively is QJdd and we have 59% EV against that.
The only hand that we are crushing here is ATs and he is definitely playing that very aggressively. But given the UTG raise is ATs in the MP+2's range of calling?
To me it really feels like TT more than anything else. The UTG most probably has AK but he could also have AA? I know this is all so negative thought but what I am saying is that having put only 2.5 BB into this pot could we just fold it?