$20 NLHE Full Ring: Villain doesn't make much sense

T

ThunderPT

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 40/13/1.2

Allright, I just can't put this guy on a range:

full tilt poker $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - View hand 1045588
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $2.90
UTG: $10.00
UTG+1: $10.00
MP: $3.20
CO: $10.81
Hero (BTN): $24.06
SB: $12.44

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with Q
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K
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3 folds, CO calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, SB calls $0.35, 1 fold, CO calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.30) T
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4
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K
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(3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $0.80, SB raises to $2.60, CO folds, Hero calls $1.80

Turn: ($6.50) 2
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(2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($6.50) 2
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(2 players)
SB bets $9.44 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds


Should I 3bet the flop? (Probably not)
Should I bet the turn? (Probably)
Should I call the river? (I have no idea...)

My decision would be a lot easier if I hadn't been so passive especially on the turn. On the river, there's so much he could have and I have no idea how I should distribute the probabilities of each possible group of hands. AK, TT, KT, busted draws (QJ, flush draws), other bluffs... he could have all of these. He was at the table for a short time, so no reads on him.

Am I good here at least 28% of the time?
 
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ComplexPlaya

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I think he has a boat by now on the river, due to him not being an aggressive player by your stats. Doesn't seem the type to c/r draws, although it is of course possible, but shoving the river with air is highly unlikely from this type of player.

I've seen these wtf moments before too, usually a monster that tries to trap you and convince you you have the best hand.

Right play is fold the flop, you're almost never going to see K9 and worse or draws raise the flop when a passive player is involved. As played absolutely fold river.
 
GotaLovePoke

GotaLovePoke

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probably KJ or something. He definatly might habe a boat, but you can dimiss the better pairs. I guess 2 pairs is likely. Given that, your range really isn't huge, I think the main problem is you check the turn, I've seen so many fish shove bad hands on river just because turn was checked.
 
vanquish

vanquish

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i think this is played completely fine
 
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ComplexPlaya

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probably KJ or something. He definatly might habe a boat, but you can dimiss the better pairs. I guess 2 pairs is likely. Given that, your range really isn't huge, I think the main problem is you check the turn, I've seen so many fish shove bad hands on river just because turn was checked.

You can and should dismiss one pair hands. There's no KJ or something, there's no such thing as a 'fish' that we play set rules against. Every player is different, but we can put him into categories. This guy is the passive type.
 
JOEBOB69

JOEBOB69

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I think your good over 28% of the time.Very strange line villian made by checking turn.If he is raising the flop for value he is betting the turn to make flush draws pay.Seems like a strong missed draw has to be more of his range than made hands to me something like AhQh,AhJh,QJ,also Ah2h would be sick here.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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I think your good over 28% of the time.Very strange line villian made by checking turn.If he is raising the flop for value he is betting the turn to make flush draws pay.Seems like a strong missed draw has to be more of his range than made hands to me something like AhQh,AhJh,QJ,also Ah2h would be sick here.

We need to be good here more than 37% of the time for this to be a river call and I don't think we are. Honestly I doubt you're good very often as soon as he raises the flop. He's pretty passive to be raising FD or TP hands. I think you can fold to the flop ch/r against this villain.
 
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ThunderPT

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We need to be good here more than 37% of the time for this to be a river call

I was getting 2.45-to-1, that's about 29% (in the original post I must have rounded to 2.5-to-1), are you taking into account what's gonna be lost in rake (and if so, how?)?
 
WVHillbilly

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I was getting 2.45-to-1, that's about 29% (in the original post I must have rounded to 2.5-to-1), are you taking into account what's gonna be lost in rake (and if so, how?)?

What? He bet $9.44 into $6.50 right? So it cost us 9.44 to win $15.94 or 1.69 to 1 or 37%. Figured another way price to call / total pot + price to call or 9.44 / 15.94 + 9.44 = 9.44/25.38 or 37%.
 
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ThunderPT

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What? He bet $9.44 into $6.50 right? So it cost us 9.44 to win $15.94 or 1.69 to 1 or 37%. Figured another way price to call / total pot + price to call or 9.44 / 15.94 + 9.44 = 9.44/25.38 or 37%.

Nevermind, I switched the bet amount with the pot size... twice! lol
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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What? He bet $9.44 into $6.50 right? So it cost us 9.44 to win $15.94 or 1.69 to 1 or 37%. Figured another way price to call / total pot + price to call or 9.44 / 15.94 + 9.44 = 9.44/25.38 or 37%.

Just to clarify that I obviously wouldn't be trying to do the math during the hand. But I know that to call a PSB I need to be good 33% to BE and to call a bet of 2x the pot I need 40% so here it's pretty close to in the middle of a PSB and a 2x PSB so I'd just go 1/2 way between 33 and 40% or 37%!
 
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