$20 NLHE Full Ring: Two pair counterfeited on the river

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.08/$0.16 - 8 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php
UTG: $16.00 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $6.36 (40 bb)
MP (Hero): $16.00 (100 bb)
MP+1: $4.89 (31 bb)
CO: $14.49 (91 bb)
BU: $14.68 (92 bb)
SB: $23.53 (147 bb)
BB: $14.08 (88 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.24) Hero is MP with Ac Qd
UTG calls $0.16, UTG+1 calls $0.16, Hero raises to $0.88, MP+1 calls $0.88, 4 players fold, UTG calls $0.72, 1 fold
Flop: ($3.04) Ah Qs Kc (3 players)
UTG bets $0.16, Hero raises to $1.77, MP+1 folds, UTG calls $1.61
Turn: ($6.58) 7h (2 players)
UTG bets $1.28, Hero raises to $5.70, UTG calls $4.42
River: ($17.98) Kd (2 players)
UTG bets $7.65 (all-in), Hero?

Villain stats: VPIP 60 / PFR 0 over 5 hands

Ok so time for another hand from my "going back to my roots", which is the cash games on PokerStars. Small sample but Villain is pretty clearly a fish. Fish love to do this donk betting (leading into previous street aggressor), and its always extra fun, when they do it on all 3 streets.

This one is a bit rough though, since my hand got counterfeited on the river. The cool thing is, you wont find hands like this on expensive training sites run by famous high stakes pros, and a solver has no clue, what this dude is up to. So here there is only you and your poker instinct to make the decision: Hold` em or Fold` em?

Only below 3 premium combos, but we don't block 16 combos that would give the villain a straight. His sample really is negligible and I don't think the villain calls with too much trash in his range. You have increased x5.5; x11.06 and x4.45 respectively. You're basically involved with the pot, but if you ask me about rank v, I don't expect to see minor pockets to J-J here. Maybe we should call this place, but this line is too disproportionate in my opinion.
Greetings.

OK...I think you had to call here, otherwise you wouldn't have known the fish's cards.

And I also think you won the hand. He had a naked gutter with either a lone J or lone 10 and was trying to make his straight, then donk spazzed the river when he missed. Am I even close?

The Leveling Wars, Episode I: The Revenge of the Fish

fundiver199 said:

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.08/$0.16 - 8 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php
UTG: $16.00 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $6.36 (40 bb)
MP (Hero): $16.00 (100 bb)
MP+1: $4.89 (31 bb)
CO: $14.49 (91 bb)
BU: $14.68 (92 bb)
SB: $23.53 (147 bb)
BB: $14.08 (88 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.24) Hero is MP with Ac Qd
UTG calls $0.16, UTG+1 calls $0.16, Hero raises to $0.88, MP+1 calls $0.88, 4 players fold, UTG calls $0.72, 1 fold
Flop: ($3.04) Ah Qs Kc (3 players)
UTG bets $0.16, Hero raises to $1.77, MP+1 folds, UTG calls $1.61
Turn: ($6.58) 7h (2 players)
UTG bets $1.28, Hero raises to $5.70, UTG calls $4.42
River: ($17.98) Kd (2 players)
UTG bets $7.65 (all-in), Hero?

Villain stats: VPIP 60 / PFR 0 over 5 hands

Ok so time for another hand from my "going back to my roots", which is the cash games on PokerStars. Small sample but Villain is pretty clearly a fish. Fish love to do this donk betting (leading into previous street aggressor), and its always extra fun, when they do it on all 3 streets.

This one is a bit rough though, since my hand got counterfeited on the river. The cool thing is, you wont find hands like this on expensive training sites run by famous high stakes pros, and a solver has no clue, what this dude is up to. So here there is only you and your poker instinct to make the decision: Hold` em or Fold` em?

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By experience we do already know that this kind of loose passive recreational player doesn't bluff to much and doesn't fold too much, when it believes it has a strong value hand.
In scenarios like this loose passive can show up with almost anything, since it never raises preflop. Don't you feel yourself odd, when a fish comes leading on a flop where you 90% of times have range advantage and fish doesn't have it? Besides, considering the real meta-game, I am 99% sure that fish has no ideia about this. So it is very spooky and scares the hell out of me when I see a player who clearly doesn't know how to play well, investing so much where we are almost always eliminating/destroying its ranges.
One thing it is hard for me to believe is that loose passive fish is bluffing with air here, or with some mid pocket pair.
Consider that you have AQ and the flop comes AQK, so you are blocking most of the combinations of AQ and AK, so what the heck a loose passive out of position is donking/representing when it decides to donk-call in a scenario where it is clearly that OOP, it doesn't have range advantage?
Second, players like this demonstrate a lot of strength by calling your preflop high preflop raise, plus your high raise x donk, so on the turn, given that I am blocking almost everything I would not go bluffing.
Why? Because my hands are well protected (AA, QQ, KK, AQ, AK), plus if loose passive decided to bluff a draw (which are not likely when they are way too passive), it is not going to fold its draws not even under a hammer, thus, forcing us to play like him/her: into huge pots/high variance spots.
When this passive guy calls OTT I am giving up (if I am not already commited) if loose passive 'ish' forces and pushes OTR.
IMO, fish is donking here KK, KQ, KJ, KT, the flopped straights, 77, AA, QQ and AK.
If we do block AA and QQ and AK, fish can present a slight better range advantage on a River like this.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

Sidetracked said:

OK...I think you had to call here, otherwise you wouldn't have known the fish's cards.

And I also think you won the hand. He had a naked gutter with either a lone J or lone 10 and was trying to make his straight, then donk spazzed the river when he missed. Am I even close?

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Thank you very much for your comment, and without further duo or any disrespect to your form of thinking, talking professionally this subject of Poker/Cash Games, we can go a little further with your ideia:
If we are "guessing" and "assigning" only one group of hands on Villain's range, we are making a mistake: a huge mistake, because Villain can very a lot of hands on its range, and sometimes we just want to see that group of hands that is more comfortable for our conscience and then we hero call OTR and lose a big pot for a massive whale, we feel ourselves sad. Why? Because we assigned only one group of hands on Villain's range OTR, and Villain can has these very groups you mentioned, but it will also has a lot of more groups and we must have the patience to count them when we are off the tables.
The player fundiver199 plays everyday and it is a regular of the tables, a player with only 5 hands played jumped into a higher NLHE stake because it was having a lot of luck in the short-run, and even with a winrate of 0 bb/ 100, fish can still have very profitable periods, between 10 K and even 100 K hands! Yes, it is possible and many of them do it and believe they are killing the pool/field, when they are just breakeven, on the bright side of variance, as our friend's OOP/Villain/Recreational.
So, it is correct to assign as a bluff a loner Jack or a loner Ten that was trying to make a straight, but this is the worst spot ever for bluffing because there is great chance of Hero/IP to pay with a lot of Full-Houses on its range.
Okay, recreational players has no ideia about range advantage: when fundiver199 raises two limpers coming from EP, it is not a way too larger range than its 3-bet range, containing AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, maybe 99 and 88, T9s+ KTs+ QTs+, AJs+, so we know that this range completely crushes and combines with Hero's raising range, and not so much with fish calling range.
The fish doesn't know about the meta-game and we know it. It is totally possible that fish is trying to represent a straight, when it doesn't have, we must count the combo bluffs and we must count the value combos that could be doing it, and given that no algorithm could precidc a fishes action, we are also not possible to figure it out. It seems that fish is trying to represent the top of its range, and being so passive, I have my doubts if it would be value betting even a flopped straight when it double pairs. Yes, if we are talking about passive players, this is the very subject! Passive players usually are not raising in situations where they know they could be losing already given the actions OTF and OTT. For example, many passive players will never shove a straight when it completes a flush OTR, and it makes a little sense on their part.
SO, if we are assigning a range that bluffs like that, for a loose passive, perhaps it is not a loose passive Villain but a more loose aggresive with tendencies to limp preflop. We have no ideia about Villain 5-hands sample, so I am speculating a lot, guessing a lot, not being the owner of the truth.
Let it be clear that the perceived range of Villain is of the loose passive player, otherwise we would be dealing with the aggro donkey, a more likely player to try to bluff us out of position when we do have the entire galaxy and aggro donkey has just a system of planets or merely a mitigated grain of sand and it is trying to make us fold the top of our ranges.
Is this Villain Aggro Donkey or "semi" Loose Passive?

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

This is a really gross river and a really tiny sample but I think it looks fishy enough to defend here. I know it's tough to apply logic to fishy lines but I really feel like JT would have 3 bet flop or turn and I'm largely discounting it. Maybe keep in the 4 suited combos for giggles. There's only one combo of AA, QQ, KK available. AK, KQ, KJ, KT got there. I think this guy can show up with enough AQ, AJ, AT and spaz to look him up here. We only need to be good 23% of the time to break even since the pot is so large and we're getting like 3.5:1. From above we have 27 value combos. If he has AQ, AJ, AT then we have 16 combos we beat and 4 chop combos. Even if we just give him AQ, AJ with no spaz we are doing better than 23% since we beat 8 combos and lose to 27 and will chop some of the time. Against anyone capable I think we can fold here but with what we have and against this line I think I pay to see, make a note, and move on. The odds are just too great and there are fish indications as well. 5 hands is so tiny this guy could show up with J9hh or T9hh for all we know.

c0rnBr34d said:

This is a really gross river and a really tiny sample but I think it looks fishy enough to defend here. I know it's tough to apply logic to fishy lines but I really feel like JT would have 3 bet flop or turn and I'm largely discounting it. Maybe keep in the 4 suited combos for giggles. There's only one combo of AA, QQ, KK available. AK, KQ, KJ, KT got there. I think this guy can show up with enough AQ, AJ, AT and spaz to look him up here. We only need to be good 23% of the time to break even since the pot is so large and we're getting like 3.5:1. From above we have 27 value combos. If he has AQ, AJ, AT then we have 16 combos we beat and 4 chop combos. Even if we just give him AQ, AJ with no spaz we are doing better than 23% since we beat 8 combos and lose to 27 and will chop some of the time. Against anyone capable I think we can fold here but with what we have and against this line I think I pay to see, make a note, and move on. The odds are just too great and there are fish indications as well. 5 hands is so tiny this guy could show up with J9hh or T9hh for all we know.

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We won 27 combos and there could be many more, if we think of a V ratio of 60% preflop. Imagine the Ax; Kx; Qx; etc. The problem is that hero raises are quite large and we honestly shouldn't consider those preliminary stats. 7h-8h; 9d-Td; Jd-xd have a better chance on a deep and very loose villain, but perhaps this could be the case. Noting the lines of play chosen by the villain on the flop and turn, when a card is folded on the river many of the combinations that we previously considered would now play the same way. And I think that's why we should just call in this place. 80% of the time the pot would be divided equally, if the villain thinks he can trick hero with a weak ace. Also the AK combo is less likely, but we are still below 3 premium combos that now this villain could easily have them in his range.

Sidetracked said:

OK...I think you had to call here, otherwise you wouldn't have known the fish's cards.


And I also think you won the hand. He had a naked gutter with either a lone J or lone 10 and was trying to make his straight, then donk spazzed the river when he missed. Am I even close?

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Spot on

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/124xJkXh0

fundiver199 said:

Spot on

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/124xJkXh0

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Thanks for revealing. Made me laugh before my 1st cup of coffee.

We need to let Aballinamion know about this result. He was quite disparaging to me about my analysis...

Sidetracked said:

Thanks for revealing. Made me laugh before my 1st cup of coffee.

We need to let Aballinamion know about this result. He was quite disparaging to me about my analysis...

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Hahahaha, thank you Sidetracked for remembering my poor analysis, lol, yes, I am very scared of passive players who decide to be aggressive in spots where I am dominating.
Your analysis is great, and you are right assigning that group of hands for Villains, but it seems that maybe fishy Villain is not loose passive but either semi loose passive or aggro donkey, anyways, sorry if I was rude, the intention is to make us grow!

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

Aballinamion said:

but it seems that maybe fishy Villain is not loose passive but either semi loose passive or aggro donkey

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Super unscientific but I tend to feel, that when you move from 2-5NL up to stakes like 10-25NL, one of the differences is, that the recreational players tend to bluff more. Maybe because they are not complete beginners, and they are tired of being pushed around by aggressive regulars, who always raise them. So they have learned to fight back, but they often pick some pretty bad spots and lines for it. Just my two cents

Aballinamion said:

Hahahaha, thank you Sidetracked for remembering my poor analysis, lol, yes, I am very scared of passive players who decide to be aggressive in spots where I am dominating.
Your analysis is great, and you are right assigning that group of hands for Villains, but it seems that maybe fishy Villain is not loose passive but either semi loose passive or aggro donkey, anyways, sorry if I was rude, the intention is to make us grow!

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

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No problem Carlos. I was kind of joking when I said that you should be alerted.