$20 NLHE Full Ring: Trips on monotone board improving to FH

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.08/$0.16 - 8 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php
UTG: $36.73 (230 bb)
UTG+1 (Hero): $19.07 (119 bb)
MP: $17.40 (109 bb)
MP+1: $25.90 (162 bb)
CO: $17.59 (110 bb)
BU: $26.09 (163 bb)
SB: $2.48 (16 bb)
BB: $6.05 (38 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.24) Hero is UTG+1 with Jh As
UTG calls $0.16, Hero raises to $0.72, 5 players fold, BB calls $0.56, UTG calls $0.56
Flop: ($2.24) 5d 7d Jc (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $1.28, BB folds, UTG calls $1.28
Turn: ($4.80) Jd (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
River: ($4.80) Ac (2 players)
UTG bets $2.72, Hero?

UTG stats: VPIP 50 / PFR 9 / AF 1 over 231 hands

Two questions here:

1) Bet turn for value or check back to avoid vomit feeling, if he check-raise?
2) Obviously raising the river but what size do we choose?

my opinion> I think Hero need to bet in the turn something like $2,40, and if villain go to check-raise, you pay, why not? I don't think he had a strong flush draw, because if he had he would raise in the flop, however, a luck hand like, 55-77 is always in his range(slow playing), since he just limp/pay pre-flop. but always has the river card and things can change....
the way this hand was played, I would raise to $7.52 in the river. gg gl

I like the turn x. I'd rather barrel an Ad turn than the Jd turn. Once the board pairs many draws that missed will give up. Many under pairs will also go away. We are repping trips, boat, flush, over pair at the least if we barrel this turn. So little hands can continue without having us beat unless we bet super small. I go about $6 on the river with no reads. More if I think V is strong or sticky.

The Leveling Wars, Episode I: The Fish Menace

fundiver199 said:

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.08/$0.16 - 8 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php
UTG: $36.73 (230 bb)
UTG+1 (Hero): $19.07 (119 bb)
MP: $17.40 (109 bb)
MP+1: $25.90 (162 bb)
CO: $17.59 (110 bb)
BU: $26.09 (163 bb)
SB: $2.48 (16 bb)
BB: $6.05 (38 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.24) Hero is UTG+1 with Jh As
UTG calls $0.16, Hero raises to $0.72, 5 players fold, BB calls $0.56, UTG calls $0.56
Flop: ($2.24) 5d 7d Jc (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $1.28, BB folds, UTG calls $1.28
Turn: ($4.80) Jd (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
River: ($4.80) Ac (2 players)
UTG bets $2.72, Hero?

UTG stats: VPIP 50 / PFR 9 / AF 1 over 231 hands

Two questions here:

1) Bet turn for value or check back to avoid vomit feeling, if he check-raise?
2) Obviously raising the river but what size do we choose?

Click to expand...

1) Betting turn for value is a clear option, but we are blocking most of Jx combinations, besides Villain is very loose passive having 50% VPIP, so if we do check we might induce some river bluffs from UTG using nonsense 50% VPIP calling freak range.
Aggression factor of 1 over 231 is a bad sample and can make us do a lot of mistakes: it seems that this player "never bluffs", or only bets this river with "AA", when this is not true.
A decent aggression factor volume of hands should be something between 500 and 1000 hands, but for this case, given how weak this Villain looks like, it is clearly value betting some Ax that decided to call preflop, and being a weak player of course that it can has AK, AQ, AT, A7, you name it, a lot of hands.

2) I don't know if raising River here is so obvious as it seems. Unless we are pretty confident that UTG is going to call here with Ax, or even worst, we don't see many reasons to be making the pot grow when Villains only calls with best hands. (in this case it will never have best hands so).
Well, I will remember very soon how fishy some players are behaving at the pool, for now I'd stay attached to the question reasoning.
Since Hero checked the Turn, there is a great chance of UTG to have bet anything for bluff, even some 22, 66, whatever and know when we re-raise River UTG can realize we were trapping, although I saw so many weak players at those mid-limits that I am starting to believe that anything is correct.
Yeah, lemme reconsider my thoughts, given how fishy these players are, and rephrase that it is possible for us to be raising this river and getting paid by bluffs or spaz Ax, or PP.
If we are trying to look like a bluff I believe a snap-jam would work very fine, because we polarize our range, and it will be more difficult for UTG to fold its trappy AK, AQ, because of the polarization. It looks more like a bluff when we go all-in, IMO.
IT UTG thinks at least one second about the game and we make a small raise OTR, we are giving information that we want/need to get called, because we are giving excellent odds for our opponent and poker players don't distribute gifts for nothing.
Considering that maybe UTG is one of those no-brainers, I guess anything would be pretty correct here, calling, jamming, raising small ,etc, depend on your actual reading on UTG.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

Aballinamion said:

2) I don't know if raising River here is so obvious as it seems. Unless we are pretty confident that UTG is going to call here with Ax, or even worst, we don't see many reasons to be making the pot grow when Villains only calls with best hands. (in this case it will never have best hands so).
Well, I will remember very soon how fishy some players are behaving at the pool, for now I'd stay attached to the question reasoning.
Since Hero checked the Turn, there is a great chance of UTG to have bet anything for bluff, even some 22, 66, whatever and know when we re-raise River UTG can realize we were trapping, although I saw so many weak players at those mid-limits that I am starting to believe that anything is correct.
Yeah, lemme reconsider my thoughts, given how fishy these players are, and rephrase that it is possible for us to be raising this river and getting paid by bluffs or spaz Ax, or PP.

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Thanks for keeping this post shorter than usual. I often see a wall of text and just skip to the next post when I don't have lots of time to go through threads. I found this portion amusing though. You could make your posts even shorter if you modified it without typing out your whole thought process of how you changed your mind and got to a final answer. I strongly disagree that raising river for value when exactly one combo of AA has us beat since we expect good players to fold isn't obvious. We just have to raise here every time and stack off if need be in this spot. Not raising would be a bigger mistake than calling a jam in my opinion. Aside from the hands you listed, many players will call down with the flush even on a paired board. So we can target the case Jx, smaller sets that boated on the turn, flushes, and sticky Ax. The thought of not raising here is criminal and I hate to see my forum friends in trouble with the law lol.

c0rnBr34d said:

Thanks for keeping this post shorter than usual. I often see a wall of text and just skip to the next post when I don't have lots of time to go through threads. I found this portion amusing though. You could make your posts even shorter if you modified it without typing out your whole thought process of how you changed your mind and got to a final answer. I strongly disagree that raising river for value when exactly one combo of AA has us beat since we expect good players to fold isn't obvious. We just have to raise here every time and stack off if need be in this spot. Not raising would be a bigger mistake than calling a jam in my opinion. Aside from the hands you listed, many players will call down with the flush even on a paired board. So we can target the case Jx, smaller sets that boated on the turn, flushes, and sticky Ax. The thought of not raising here is criminal and I hate to see my forum friends in trouble with the law lol.

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Hello dear friend, I appreciate very much your words. I am working on making shorter texts, making the reading more easy, but sometimes I am kindda nerd and get very excited with the hand that I cannot even control myself, and when I see there is a huge portion of lines.
I was making a lot of mistakes here because I was assuming players to be at least level 1 of thought, but most of them are not even level 0, so, given all of that it is okay to be raising any kind of river like this, to extract for whatever huge non-sense range of river hands to be paid off.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

Thanks for the input. On the turn my thought process was very much in line with c0rnBr34d. While my absolute hand strength improved to trips, it was also a very polarizing card, where the Villain now either has trips as well, a flush, a full house, or complete garbage. And this should make it a little difficult to get a lot of value. However he was a fish, and I think, I underestimated the ability of fish to make incredibly bad calls. So against this particular player I think, it was a mistake to check back turn.

On the river I went for the overbet jam, and Aballinamion pretty much nailed why. When fish have a certain hand strength like trips or better, they typically just can not fold. Then will convince themselfes, that overbet is a bluff, and since they dont want to be bullied, they are going to make the call with their QJ. Turned out I put a bit of a cooler on him, which is of course always fun, when you are on the good side of it

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/824xTTpyH

c0rnBr34d said:

I strongly disagree that raising river for value when exactly one combo of AA has us beat since we expect good players to fold isn't obvious. .

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Fine, Villain will never have AA in a situation like this out of position. Villain would be 3-betting all of its combos of AA versus UTG, since EP is very strong most of times.
Second, we are not scared of Villain to have AA, we are scared of Villain to have nothing and simply FOLD right on the spot. This is why fundiver199 asked if he should be raising this river and how much, if it was so obvious, fundiver199 wouldn't bother asking for us.
Of course that in this case Villain had a made nut flush and I guess that nobody is folding these type of hands at mid-limits, but there are several hands that could get into this river and fold to a river jam, and this is our concern, where we should be putting money on the pot just to get folds.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

fundiver199 said:

Two questions here:

1) Bet turn for value or check back to avoid vomit feeling, if he check-raise?
2) Obviously raising the river but what size do we choose?

Click to expand...

Aballinamion said:

I don't know if raising River here is so obvious as it seems.


This is why fundiver199 asked if he should be raising this river and how much, if it was so obvious, fundiver199 wouldn't bother asking for us.

Click to expand...

No hard feelings buddy, had to mess with you a bit on this one though lol.

fundiver199 said:

Thanks for the input. On the turn my thought process was very much in line with c0rnBr34d. While my absolute hand strength improved to trips, it was also a very polarizing card, where the Villain now either has trips as well, a flush, a full house, or complete garbage. And this should make it a little difficult to get a lot of value. However he was a fish, and I think, I underestimated the ability of fish to make incredibly bad calls. So against this particular player I think, it was a mistake to check back turn.

On the river I went for the overbet jam, and Aballinamion pretty much nailed why. When fish have a certain hand strength like trips or better, they typically just can not fold. Then will convince themselfes, that overbet is a bluff, and since they dont want to be bullied, they are going to make the call with their QJ. Turned out I put a bit of a cooler on him, which is of course always fun, when you are on the good side of it

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/824xTTpyH

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I have been loving river overbets here a lot lately too. Maybe I sized a bit conservatively OTR, nice hand. I think your line was optimal. Let's not underestimate all of the fish in our assumption of how they will respond to the turn barrel. I think x turn also has the added benefit that it can induce river bluffs from more marginal hands that would have folded to the scary turn card. Getting x/r on the turn would be super gross too as you mentioned. I don't hate a turn bet but I prefer a x back and I would want solid fishy reads to change that preference to triple barrel this run out in a 3 bet pot.

And it wasn't that bad of a suck out. Poetic justice if you ask me. We had him dominated pre and he hit bingo OTT but we still had 10 outs and luckily the turn went x/x. If he had 77 I'd call that a suck out! Just read your post again, you called it a cooler rather than suck out but you get my drift. Either way, nice to be on the good side of them! I got 1 outted set over set all in on the flop for over 290 BB (total pot, V was about 145BB effective) yesterday...