$20 NLHE Full Ring: can tptk be good?

I haven't played with villain too much before but he seems fairly solid and the notes I have on him are that he plays sets strongly, raising and betting big, have also seen him raise flop cbets with a gutshot.

UTG - Hero ($20.83)
UTG+1 - Villain ($47.45)
MP ($21)
CO ($20)
BTN ($14.80)
SB ($24.43)
BB ($20)

Hero is dealt AKs
Preflop ($0.30)
Hero raises to $0.60, villain calls, 4 folds

Flop ($1.43) is K,8,6 with two diamonds
hero bets $1, villain raises to $3.77, hero calls

Turn ($8.59) is a 3 (offsuit)
hero checks, villain bets $6.98, hero calls

River ($21.48) is a 7 (offsuit)
hero checks, villain bets $9.48 to put hero all in, hero calls

How do you think I played the hand, based on my reads should it be a fold on the turn? I think the turn is where I could have got away from the hand since by the river I am getting more than 3 to 1 on a call but then again what are we beating here? Part of my thinking was that I'd seen him make sets and play them similarly twice in the last 20 minutes or so (more or less the only hands he's played) and I thought surely he can't have it again, probably a stupid way of thinking though. What are your thoughts?

I think you should be folding turn if not river, there are no hands that you are beating that he would play this way, only bluffs, and based on what information we have it doesn't seem like hes likely bluffing with a hand like AQd etc on this board. It is a lot more likely he has a set, it may seem annoying that he has a set yet again but sometimes people can't miss and this is all part of varience. Maybe folding the turn isn't as easy but by the river im defo folding here. As regards to the way you played the hand, you played it fine but should be folding turn if not river.

What did he have in the end?

Yea i agree with you, I am beating nothing but a bluff here so I should have folded the turn or if not the river. I think I was just thinking too much about the fact he has had a set twice recently and just couldn't believe he had one yet again. Sure enough he did have a set of 8's

I think I fold the flop here. Villain is competent and called our UTG raise, so its very unlikely he's running a bluff in this spot, especially on this flop texture.

Villains VPIP/PFR stats are vital here. How we fare against a 12/10 and a 20/12 varies greatly here.

Someone with little gap between there Vpip and PFR will be very heavily weighted towards pocket pairs EP vs EP so I can fold the flop knowing they only hold one or two flush draws and upto 6 sets.
Anyone with a wide range who happens to raise gutshots on the flop is not getting a fold out of me here when there are many flush draw out there and they rep a mere 6 combos.

When he raised the cbet with a gutshoot did he triple barrel air?

Deco said:

Villains VPIP/PFR stats are vital here. How we fare against a 12/10 and a 20/12 varies greatly here.

Click to expand...

I don't use a hud so I don't know those stats

JOEBOB69 said:

When he raised the cbet with a gutshoot did he triple barrel air?

Click to expand...

That is a good point you make, I should have included that in the original post. No he didn't he checked back on the turn and made it on the river so obviously bet the river. When I was playing the hand I didn't pick up on this, vital information missed from me here