$20 NLHE Full Ring: TPTK with a nut flush draw

Bozovicdj

Bozovicdj

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Hand Information
, 0.2 BB (9 handed).
Hand History converter courtesy of pokerhandreplays.com


Table Information
Seat: 1 seat 1 ($20) Small Blind
Seat: 2 seat 2 ($20) Big Blind
Seat: 3 villain1 ($37)
Seat: 4 seat 4 ($20)
Seat: 5 seat 5 ($20)
Seat: 6 seat 6 ($20)
Seat: 7 villain2 ($55.5)
Seat: 8 seat 8 ($20)
Seat: 9 hero ($52.5) Dealer
Dealt to hero
AH.png
9D.png



Preflop (Pot:0.3)
villain1 RAISE $0.45
seat 4 FOLD
seat 5 FOLD
seat 6 FOLD
villain2 CALL
seat 8 FOLD
hero RAISE $1.75
seat 1 FOLD
seat 2 FOLD
villain1 CALL
villain2 CALL


Flop(Pot: $4.7)
9H.png
6D.png
6H.png



villain1 CHECK
villain2 BET $3.5
hero CALL
villain1 CALL


Turn(Pot: $11.7)
9H.png
6D.png
6H.png
8H.png



villain1 CHECK
villain2 BET $9
hero RAISE $22
villain1 ALL-IN
villain2 ALL-IN




I don't have the exact stats on the villains but V1 is a regular player, very tight and passive, while V2 is a recreational player, doesn't come to the game often, but plays rather solid poker, nothing too fancy.


My question is, what do you do on the turn here, what do you put opponents on?
Also, do you feel pot committed enough to call here?


After a few replies, will post villains hands..
 
R

RakeMyLife

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Assuming he's a tighter, standard-type player, I'm putting him on 10-10 or J-J.

Preflop is fine, flop is fine, but turn... when he double barrels into two opponents the chances of him bluffing go way down. That only puts him on a number of hands (overpair or a random 6). You would also have to worry about player 3 who could have hit the flush.


If you assume your flush outs are good (they probably are), that gives you about 23% to win (flush cards & two 9s). He is not giving you odds to call.
 
WhereDidMyEVGo

WhereDidMyEVGo

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I don't think I make it to the turn. I don't think I raise preflop. I don't think I raise turn. I don't think I raise/fold half my stack.
 
Bozovicdj

Bozovicdj

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If you assume your flush outs are good (they probably are), that gives you about 23% to win (flush cards & two 9s). He is not giving you odds to call.

My thinking was an overpair too, which means I have 14 outs (including three aces). So that's around 30% to win, and i have to pay 25BB to win total of 142BB which is about 17%..
Shouldn't thad be +EV?


I don't think I make it to the turn. I don't think I raise preflop. I don't think I raise turn. I don't think I raise/fold half my stack.


I am playing my image here a lot. I have shown some very very good calls and folds that night, you might say I was on fire. So against a tight player I expect to win with aggression, and I also expect a rec player to not have a strict range. In my mind, I know that I can represent AA-KK on so many different flops, especially if checked to me, and being in position also works in my favor. Once i had TPTK, and got some showdown value, there is no need for me to continue with the aggression, more so, knowing I have a nut flush backdraw.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Looks like you're bluffing pre and the turn against 2 players and you got 0 folds both times.

Trying to blow rec players off overpairs sounds like a terrible strategy.
 
Ryan Laplante

Ryan Laplante

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Fold preflop, want to use better hands as 3b bluffs. (AJo, 56s, etc)

Fold turn.
 
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