€20 NLHE Full Ring: Should I have bet the flop?

I am posting the result because I just want an overall opinion on this hand and whether I should be making plays like these or not.

iPoker - €0.20 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: 14.75 BB (VPIP: 61.29, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 31)
MP: 131.3 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 15.71, 3Bet Preflop: 7.55, Hands: 140)
MP+1: 127.05 BB (VPIP: 15.47, PFR: 9.40, 3Bet Preflop: 2.67, Hands: 6,433)
CO: 48.7 BB (VPIP: 42.90, PFR: 1.27, 3Bet Preflop: 0.65, Hands: 320)
Hero (BTN): 118.55 BB
SB: 205.65 BB (VPIP: 15.82, PFR: 12.84, 3Bet Preflop: 0.84, Hands: 337)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 18.01, PFR: 4.21, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 526)
UTG: 120.5 BB (VPIP: 42.49, PFR: 0.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.49, Hands: 3,030)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:club: Q:heart:

fold, UTG+1 calls 1 BB, MP raises to 4 BB, fold, CO calls 4 BB, Hero raises to 18.5 BB, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls 13.75 BB, MP calls 14.5 BB, fold

Flop: (57.25 BB, 3 players) K:spade: 2:heart: K:heart:
MP checks, Hero bets 30 BB, MP calls 30 BB

Turn: (117.25 BB, 3 players) 4:diamond:
MP checks, Hero checks

River: (117.25 BB, 3 players) 2:spade:
MP bets 82.8 BB, fold

UTG+1 shows 9:spade: J:heart: (Two Pair, Kings and Twos)
(Pre 36%, Flop 2%, Turn 0%)
MP shows A:heart: K:club: (Full House, Kings full of Twos)
(Pre 64%, Flop 98%, Turn 100%)
MP wins 194.2 BB

I was pretty confident here I have a better hand than the short stacks so basically I wanted the MP to fold and I wouldn't mind the short stacks staying in the hand. The MP 4 bets and its an easy fold. But he just calls so I dunno what he has. Should I have bet that flop? If I fold the hand anytime I'll still get to see his hand anyways.

Do you think he is folding TT/JJ on that flop? What I am asking is whether that flop bet a profitable thing to do?

I don't think you need to bet here, as it is a 3-way pot

tomnovember said:

I don't think you need to bet here, as it is a 3-way pot

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Ya but the 3rd player is all in and there is a reasonable chance I am ahead of him as I was.

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This is a classic way ahead/way behind scenario, checking is always optimal in these kind of spots and no, no competent player is ever folding TT/JJ on this flop, the only option you have is either hope to get to showdown cheap or try and turn this into a crazy bluff, MP's stats aren't too crazy so I think we have to give him credit here a lot of the time.

thatgreekdude said:

This is a classic way ahead/way behind scenario, checking is always optimal in these kind of spots and no, no competent player is ever folding TT/JJ on this flop, the only option you have is either hope to get to showdown cheap or try and turn this into a crazy bluff, MP's stats aren't too crazy so I think we have to give him credit here a lot of the time.

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But what is he beating in my 3 bet range to keep calling with TT/JJ? I don't think those hands should be calling pre OOP so that's another thing.

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Thinker_145 said:

But what is he beating in my 3 bet range to keep calling with TT/JJ? I don't think those hands should be calling pre OOP so that's another thing.

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True, I see where you're coming from, it just depends on how good of a player he is honestly and what his assumption is of you, I think he's definitely folding TT/JJ to a double barrel on the turn, It just so happens you got unlucky that he has the one hand that you can't out represent.

Generally speaking against this kind of opponent I would check the flop. Typically speaking they will check the turn also, so at least you have a decent chance to get to showdown. But with this kind of 3-bet sizing, and assuming you're not a maniac, what is going to fold out on that flop? AQ? It's doubtful he has suited connectors in his range, although his vpip/pfr is kind of wide.

If you're betting the flop, then I think you need to commit to double barreling imho. That's the only way for the play to potentially be +EV.

Yes true my play does necessitate a double barrel because TT/JJ might just be inclined to call the flop with the intention of folding the turn. In this case I obviously avoided complete disaster by shutting down but definitely not optimal play.

I think I should never bet the flop against a good player because AK is like the only hand that would just call that sort of a raise OOP, even with QQ its 4 bet or fold. The price is not right for set mining so a good player isn't calling with a medium pair. But then again its rather difficult to give your opponent credit for AK on that sort of a flop.

Now that I think about it I was going to be in a world of trouble on an A high flop with 2 rags or even more so if the turn comes an ace I am toast.

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You can bet the flop as it was virtually a heads up situation as one player was already all in. But after villain donk leads so strongly on the turn we have to fold.
That was a mistake by villain leading so strongly on the turn. Almost gave away his hand.

He is not folding TT/JJ or any pair on the flop so you should have considered this while making a continuation bet on the flop.

suby_rafael said:

You can bet the flop as it was virtually a heads up situation as one player was already all in. But after villain donk leads so strongly on the turn we have to fold.
That was a mistake by villain leading so strongly on the turn. Almost gave away his hand.

He is not folding TT/JJ or any pair on the flop so you should have considered this while making a continuation bet on the flop.

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He checked the turn and shoved the river.

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Thinker_145 said:

He checked the turn and shoved the river.

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Sorry my bad. Still a fold on the river. I won't call there with Ace high.

Only if we hit the river will be considering that call.