$20 NLHE Full Ring: QQ vs. Half Stack Nit

$20 NL HE Full Ring: QQ vs. Half Stack Nit

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 14/5/4.5

poker stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

Hero (BB): $27.95 (111.8 bb)
UTG: $25.85 (103.4 bb)
UTG+1: $29.65 (118.6 bb)
MP1: $25.35 (101.4 bb)
MP2: $4.65 (18.6 bb)
MP3: $25 (100 bb)
CO: $5 (20 bb)
BTN: $14.05 (56.2 bb)
SB: $82.45 (329.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with Q Q
6 folds, BTN raises to $0.75, SB folds, Hero raises to $2.75, BTN raises to $5

Easy Fold?

I don't know about the easy part, he min re-raises you which is begging for a call. What is your image at the table at this point? How about call, shove any non A, K flop??? do you have 3 bet stats on villan?

Whats his attempt to steal, and fold to 3bet?, sample?
Usually i'm willing to get this in like almost every time vs a button raise, esp half stacked. I'd want a pretty good reason not to to consider folding.

His steal % is 2.

The Shrog said:

His steal % is 2.

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If thats over a pretty large sample, you might be better off setmining

His fold to 3bet, 4bet range, and the sample size is important here. I can't imagine really folding this unless we've got thousands of hands on the guy that say he doesn't stack anything but AA/KK preflop. Even then I'd have trouble getting away from QQ bvb.

He's on the btn.

I would call to see the flop. Then you're first to act and have another decision based on what you see on the flop.

Alright, for example...

we call and flop is Jh10s3c

Thought one of the nlhe wizards would have answered this by now, but guess not. To that flop I would make a pot bet, or possibly shove. A pot bet would mean he would either have to fold or shove himself being pot committed if he flat called at that point. There's nothing really scary in that board.

But then, I'm not a nlhe regular either, so what do I know ...

Fwiw i would flat call, looking to set mine or push on a non AK flop tbh but then again i usually stack QQ pf at 5nl, but it is 5nl lol

He's quite aggressive i guess, could be the button trying to push around someone who's oop, especially if he knows that you play position correctly.

ChuckTs said:

His fold to 3bet, 4bet range, and the sample size is important here. I can't imagine really folding this unless we've got thousands of hands on the guy that say he doesn't stack anything but AA/KK preflop. Even then I'd have trouble getting away from QQ bvb.

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this pretty much. There's pretty much no way I'm ever folding QQ in a bvb situation vs. a half stack. You'd need a rather large sample on him to convince me that folding is ever correct here. Plus with it being 25NL, you have to throw in the "F-it Factor", where seemingly tight solid players suddenly show up with like J5o for stacks PF.

dsvw56 said:

Plus with it being 25NL, you have to throw in the "F-it Factor", where seemingly tight solid players suddenly show up with like J5o for stacks PF.

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Hahaha.

Off the BTN with a little more than half a stack to start I'm probably shoving on this opponent PF and not thinking twice about it. His hand range has to be greater than AA,KK unless you have a really large number of hands on him that tells you otherwise.

I don't find any benefit in seeing a flop as a lot of the hands he might call an all in preflop with he might not commit after the flop depending on the board, and he might be able to bluff you off yours. The times he does have AA,KK you're probably paying him off on a lot of flops anyway.

My Vote: He's got about 9 dollars left, put him in.

orangepeeleo said:

Fwiw i would flat call, looking to set mine or push on a non AK flop tbh but then again i usually stack QQ pf at 5nl, but it is 5nl lol

He's quite aggressive i guess, could be the button trying to push around someone who's oop, especially if he knows that you play position correctly.

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You're not getting odds to set mine.

Likminutz said:

You're not getting odds to set mine.

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I dont think my math sucks that bad so i must've not read the hand right.

Unless you want to set mine for 4 or 5x the raise, which a lot of players at 5nl actually do, then no, you cant set mine here

I think I'll fold here, primarily because he's pot committed if I call. Of course he can be playing this against you - eg. I want him to see me pot committed as this represents strength, so I bet with air - and if he does this then kudos to him. I would have rather he pushed here

Um, snap shove? Short stackers burn in hell and you have the ladies facing a button raise. This is a spot I'm pretty much never folding in, unless we have a significant sample size for his 3-bet and 4-bet stats as Chuck mentioned.

His steal % is 2??? That can't be right can it.

FWIW, I snap shove this. You can't consider folding and flatting here is horrible. With the $$ already in the middle it's profitable even if he only does this with JJ+. Throw in AK and a random bluff and it's a clear shove.

ChuckTs said:

His fold to 3bet, 4bet range, and the sample size is important here. I can't imagine really folding this unless we've got thousands of hands on the guy that say he doesn't stack anything but AA/KK preflop. Even then I'd have trouble getting away from QQ bvb.

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I agree. You're only in trouble against AA or KK. AK is a race so only 2 hands to be worried about. Hard to fold it here. I'd call and play it based off flop. The min raise is suspicious though, don't think i'm folding this just yet.

WVHillbilly said:

His steal % is 2??? That can't be right can it.

FWIW, I snap shove this. You can't consider folding and flatting here is horrible. With the $$ already in the middle it's profitable even if he only does this with JJ+. Throw in AK and a random bluff and it's a clear shove.

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^^ yeah this...

If his steal % is really only 2% (that's absurdly low for anybody...i don't see how that can possibly be right from someone with a PFR of 5%) over any sort of decent sample (esp combined with a low (under 3%) 3b% you can probably find a fold or at least flat it and set mine as opposed to raise/get it in.

In general agaisnt a 14/5/4.5 half stack BVB I'm putting QQ in every single time though.


And I forget who it was early who was advocating flatting... and then getting it in as an overpair on something like JT2. Frankly that's terrible... Doubly terrible on that board. His most likely hands are of course AA/KK/AK but after those 3 his next two most likely hands are JJ and TT and you gave AK 2 extra outs against you as well... basically none of his range is gonna fold a shove there and your equity will suck.

Either fold it now or get it in now.. and I lean towards getting it in without a very good read. also if you are going to fold it to a 3b vs a half stack you shouldn't have raised it at all.