$20 NLHE Full Ring: Playing PP in position

nabmom

nabmom

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 48/21/47

Hoping to redeem myself from my poor description of a hand earlier, here's one more that asks the following question:

How would you optimally play this PP, in position, against a loose player? How do you interpret his post-flop behavior? What should have been my move?

Only 30 hands of stats on villain (I'm enjoying my PT3 trial at the moment). He's VPIP/PFR/AgFreq of 48/21/47.

Cereus Network - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

MP: $6.71
Hero (MP+1): $10.09
LP: $8.22
CO: $2.71
BTN: $10.00
SB: $3.25
BB: $5.59
UTG: $19.03
UTG+1: $9.85

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 8 8

UTG calls $0.10, UTG+1 raises to $0.30, fold, Hero calls $0.30, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.20, UTG calls $0.20

Flop: ($1.25, 4 players) 9 5 9
BB checks, UTG bets $0.70, fold, Hero ??
 
JohnBoyWWFC

JohnBoyWWFC

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This seems like one of the best flops you can see without hitting a set. I can't see UTG would bet into a pre flop raiser if he's flopped a set. You can RR here or just float one and see how he reacts on the turn. I certainly can't see why he would flop trips then bet into the PF raiser.
 
TylerN

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FD's are in his range as well too

The only 9 you have to worry about here is A9 and thats not often but with a loose maniac it could be.

I RR here for value to 2.05 and try to get stacks in on further streets vs a FD
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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The only 9 you have to worry about here is A9 and thats not often but with a loose maniac it could be.
What? If you take the bottom 27% of his range (supposedly the hands he limps), you get these hands that include a nine: Q9s, J9s, T9s, 98s, 97s, 96s, Q9o, J9o, T9o, 98o

Oddly enough, A9 is NOT in those hands, because that is included in the top 21%, which he raises. Course, his raising range is probably slimmer than 21% UTG, so I think you can probably add a lot MORE hands with a 9 in them than just those that I listed.

I'm not sure if I raise this flop (I probably just flat & see a turn card), but your statement that A9 is the only 9 in his range just struck me as so ridiculously wrong.
 
TylerN

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am i overestimating these guys playing ability? how do u limp with those hands utg?
 
H

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I personally would just flat his bet on the flop. You are very likely good here and I don't think you want to scare him off by raising (this obviously is no the case if he is calling a lot of raises oop, then you want to get additional value from your hand). See how he reacts on the turn and act accordingly. Try to get a feel for how many streets of value you can get from him.
 
Sysvr4

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I also like a call on the flop. This is a pretty decent flop for your hand, and you're ahead way too often to fold, but when reraised you're very frequently drawing almost dead. If there weren't two diamonds this would be a lot more obvious flat call, but I think we have to fade that risk in order to get to attempt a cheap showdown with this hand.
 
nabmom

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As always, I really appreciate folks taking time to look at hands. If you don't mind, I have some follow-up questions: Is it obvious that I'm good here and that my hand is too good to fold?

How likely do you think that he has a higher pair than 88? Do you think not likely because he limped into the pot initially?

His raise made the pot $1.95 making my call with pot odds (if PT3 has it right) of almost 3:1. Does this mean I have to be good 1/4 times to make this profitable?
 
c9h13no3

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Is it obvious that I'm good here and that my hand is too good to fold?
No, you can fold if you like. We're not super pumped about this hand, and our opponent is very aggressive and will likely make it expensive to see a showdown. So folding here isn't out of the question.

But I think you've got pretty good equity against his range, and I don't think there are many turn cards other than diamonds that scare me. So I'd call the flop and see what the turn brings.

How likely do you think that he has a higher pair than 88? Do you think not likely because he limped into the pot initially?
Its in his range, but yeah, probably discounted since he limped. But if he flipped over AA, I wouldn't be shocked.

Also, keep in mind that he likely has a pair or 7's or lower way more often than he has a pair of T's or higher. I'd expect a player like this to donk this flop with A5 or 33.

His raise made the pot $1.95 making my call with pot odds (if PT3 has it right) of almost 3:1. Does this mean I have to be good 1/4 times to make this profitable?
Yes and no. Yes, if he checks the next two streets. However, getting into pot odds of winning at showdown when you're two streets away from showdown is kinda misleading.

Just think of his flop bet size as small, so you can possibly get to showdown without having to risk your whole stack.
 
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