re: Poker & $20 NLHE Full Ring: KK facing 4bet
Here's one of the best pieces of writing on HUD's I've come across. Appreciate this post as it's going to help you beat the micros if you have the time to study it. The section I just spent the last 10mins pasting to here is part of this guide and it's the best thing since sliced bread:
Your HUD and Reads
We often use our HUD to gain some insight into our opponents. We use that information to develop an idea of their ranges. With the player pool at the micros so large, your HUD is like your recon team - giving you early glimpses of an unknown opponent. But what exactly does it tell you?
Let's examine a player with a made of screen name "PkrPlayer" by adding more and more to what we know about him and observe how this information converges. Let's also make some generalizations at each stage. The stages will grow exponentially.
After Two Orbits:
So after two orbits, the PkrPlayer has only played one hand. We can guess that he's not one-tabling because most one-tabling players at the micros don't like folding 11 out of 12 times. Could this guy possibly be one of the multi-tabling nits? We'll need more info.
After 25 Hands:
Hmmm ... all signs seem to point to a multi-tabling nit at this point. He is folding a lot. 25 hands is still a small sample, so let's see what happens in the next 25.
After 50 Hands:
Still no change ... let's give him the light-blue tag for "nit". After 50 hands, we've yet to see PkrPlayer go to showdown.
After 100 Hands:
Given that his VPIP and PFR are fairly close and that he's 3-bet a few times, we can infer that he's at least has a general idea about opening ranges. We shouldn't expect this player to open K2o UTG or do much limping. When he enters pots, he is probably going to be doing so aggressively.
After 250 Hands:
Now these numbers seem to be more of the standard TAG player. He is still going into pots aggressively by open raising and 3-betting his fair share. Doesn't seem to be getting out of line. We've observed him play three hands to the river and two of them went to showdown.
In Hand 1, he opened QQ BvB and bet/3-bet a J84r board vs. a 45BB stack who min-raised him on that board. He then shoved the turn and won the stack.
In Hand 2, he flatted a reg's UTG raise from MP with AQo. On a flop of 5 4 8 he checked back when checked to. He checked the turn when the T came and then checked the river when the 5 came and won the pot. So he seems to play straight-forward so far. Nothing that jumps out.
After 500 Hands:
It seems like this guy is going to be 3-betting more than just QQ+, AK (which comprises of 2.6% of hands). We get our first indication of this when the following hand occurs:
Hand 3: UTG is playing very loosely (51/31/6 over 130 hands) and is the mark at the table ATM. He is sitting on 200 BB's. He opens and PkrPlayer 3-bets him standard. He has UTG covered. CO, a regular with 100 BB's, flats. UTG flats as well. The flop comes 5 2 K and gets checked through. The turn is the 7 and UTG checks again. Now PkrPlayer bets about 70% and BTN shoves. PkrPlayer call and flips over 6 8 for a monster draw while CO flips over a slow-played A A . All draws miss as the 7 hits the river and CO wins the pot.
This hand tells
us a lot about PkrPlayer. First of all, he is not afraid to isolate the fish in position with marginal holdings. Secondly, he doesn't fire blindly postflop with weak draws multi-way. Lastly, he plays his equity for what it's worth.
After 1,000 Hands:
He is definitely a player that mixes up it up both preflop and postflop. Competent and aggressive.
We observe the following Hand:
TAG opens on the button with effective 100 BB stacks. PkrPlayer calls from the BB and c/c a 3 3 J flop. The turn which brings the A goes check/check. The river, the 8 also check through. PkrPlayer has 9 9 and BTN shows down T J .
Hand 5: We also see him flat A 6 BvB vs. a regular who opens for 4x. PkrPlayer checks back the 9 9 A flop, checks again when the 9 turns, and calls a river bet on the 2 to chop it vs. A2.
So after about a 1000 hands we seem to have a player who is aggressive but not spewy post-flop. He mixes up his play and is definitely thinking about ranges. He c-bets most of the time and barrels often. He definitely 3-bets light, but seems to do it in position and wtih a polarized range.
Let's hit "Fast Forward":
After 2,500 Hands:
After 5,000 Hands:
After 10,000 Hands:
After 25,000 Hands:
What does this show us? It simply shows that our HUD doesn't tell us all that much about a player even after 100 hands. What it DOES show us is if someone is completely out of line. In this case, PkrPlayer is far from a nit, but in fact a competent multi-tabling sLAG. It also shows how crucial showdown histories are for us to get a sense of how the player plays and how critical those are to playing vs. this player in the long run.
For the purposes of our discussions, we are going to not make too many assumptions about a player's
preflop range until we have a few hundred hands on them or postflop tendencies until we see multiple showdowns from them.
I'm going to leave close this with a hand I played at 5NL vs. a player whom I had playing 14/13/1 over
100 hands at the time:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Hand Converter from
Hero (Button) ($5.30)
Preflop: Hero is Button with Q , Q
2 folds, CO bets $0.17, Hero raises to $0.58, 2 folds, CO raises to $1.30, Hero raises to $5.30 (All-In),
CO calls $4
Flop: ($10.67) 3 , K , 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: ($10.67) 8 (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ($10.67) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $10.67 | Rake: $0.71
Hero had Q , Q (two pair, Queens and threes).
CO had A , Q (one pair, threes).
Outcome: Hero won $9.96
Moral: 14/11's don't always 4-bet KK+ nor are they truly 14/11's after just 100 hands ...