$20 NLHE Full Ring: fold set on flop?

J

js520

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I've played quite a few hands with villain but not a lot. Haven't seen him really do anything out of line. Only slightly relevant notes on him for this hand are that he raised pre flop raisers flop and turn bets with tptk when there were 3 clubs on the board. Don't think that is too relevant to this hand though.

UTG ($9)
UTG+1 ($21.01)
MP1 ($46.36)
MP2 - Hero ($24.96)
MP3 ($20)
CO ($30)
BTN ($23.10)
SB ($24.67)
BB ($20)

Hero is dealt 10h,10c
Preflop ($0.30)
1 folds, UTG+1 raised to $0.60, 1 fold, hero calls $0.60, 3 folds, SB calls $0.60, BB folds

Flop ($1.90) is Ah,Jh,10d
SB checks, UTG+1 bets $1.50, hero raises to $5, SB folds, UTG+1 raises to $11, Hero??

Ok so there are only 3 hands that are beating us here (AA, JJ, KQ) and all 3 hands are very much in villains range. But I can't see what other hands he would re raise here with. AJ is probably the only one, I don't think he raises pre flop from utg+1 with a hand like 9h,8h or A10 and I don't think he would 3bet the flop here with AK/AQ since he's got to know I have a strong hand if I'm raising him on this board. What would you do?
 
MediaBLITZ

MediaBLITZ

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I'm calling that every time. His range is pretty wide with that flop (Straights, flushes, 2 pair, TPTK with a draw, etc). Like you said, only three hands are going to give you fits (one of those you can still draw out on).

I'll bet he checks the turn and if he doesn't I still have 10 outs.
 
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Deco

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Ok so there are only 3 hands that are beating us here (AA, JJ, KQ) and all 3 hands are very much in villains range. But I can't see what other hands he would re raise here with. AJ is probably the only one, I don't think he raises pre flop from utg+1 with a hand like 9h,8h or A10 and I don't think he would 3bet the flop here with AK/AQ since he's got to know I have a strong hand if I'm raising him on this board. What would you do?

I'd ship the money in. Your reasoning is sound assuming villain is a tag or a nit but even with this bleak range we aint doing too badly at all.

Board: Ah Jh Td
Hand 0: 44.977%{ TcTh }
Hand 1: 55.023% { AA, JJ-TT, AJs, KQs, AJo, KQo }

*KQ we have decent equity (16 combos)
*AA/JJ are combinatorially rare (6combos)
*AJ we beat (12 combos)
 
Deco

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Here is a link to poker stove if your interested in doing some equity calculations yourself.
http://www.pokerstove.com/blog/

To figure out how much equity you need use this formula when villain goes all in:
Equity Required = cost to call/ (cost to call + pot)

In cases like this where we have almost 0% fold equity we can pretend villain did go all in.
pot = 27.40
cost to call = 15.40
Equity Required = 15.40/(27.40 + 15.40) = 37%
 
J

js520

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Here is a link to poker stove if your interested in doing some equity calculations yourself.
http://www.pokerstove.com/blog/

To figure out how much equity you need use this formula when villain goes all in:
Equity Required = cost to call/ (cost to call + pot)

In cases like this where we have almost 0% fold equity we can pretend villain did go all in.
pot = 27.40
cost to call = 15.40
Equity Required = 15.40/(27.40 + 15.40) = 37%

Thank you, I know how to calculate the equity to call, I think my bigger problem is assigning an accurate range for villain and then working out how much equity we have against this range in a short period of time
 
MediaBLITZ

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I thought it was either shove or fold? Surely the money is going to go in anyway if it doesn't on the flop if we just call?

Sorry, I blew right by blinds and stacks and just looked at the cards
 
John A

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Ok so there are only 3 hands that are beating us here (AA, JJ, KQ) and all 3 hands are very much in villains range. But I can't see what other hands he would re raise here with. AJ is probably the only one, I don't think he raises pre flop from utg+1 with a hand like 9h,8h or A10 and I don't think he would 3bet the flop here with AK/AQ since he's got to know I have a strong hand if I'm raising him on this board. What would you do?

What are his stats at least? I wouldn't assume he won't raise 98h or ATs. Perhaps based on his stats and your reads you make this less likely, but it's still possibly in his range.

You aren't loving it if your read is correct, but you can't fold once you raise.
 
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js520

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What are his stats at least? I wouldn't assume he won't raise 98h or ATs. Perhaps based on his stats and your reads you make this less likely, but it's still possibly in his range.

You aren't loving it if your read is correct, but you can't fold once you raise.

I don't use a hud so I don't have stats but from what I've seen of him I think it's less likely he will raise with 98h or AT although you're right I'm not that sure.

Would just calling his original bet be ok in this spot?
 
Ducky7

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You are not folding a set here. Old saying. Don't fold sets ha
 
Deco

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Thank you, I know how to calculate the equity to call, I think my bigger problem is assigning an accurate range for villain and then working out how much equity we have against this range in a short period of time

You can estimate this well with time, experience, repeated stovings off the table and counting combos at the table.

Would just calling his original bet be ok in this spot?

You'd have to be pretty damn sure he never has flush draws JT or AT and always folds AK/AQ to the raise. I don't think you have enough of a read on villain to know this.
 
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