$20 NLHE Full Ring: Fold my overpair in 3bet pot?

Hi,

I played this hand against a total unknown player and wondered what my next move is here. As said, no stats on the guy although later on he had a vpip of 93 so that could tell you something.



Pacific Poker - $0.20 NL - Holdem - 7 players


CO: $14.20
BTN: $20.45
SB: $21.31
BB: $19.80
UTG: $20.00
UTG+1: $36.73
Hero (MP): $20.30

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.20, UTG posts penalty blind $0.20

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.50) Hero has Q♣ Q♠

UTG raises to $0.53, fold, Hero raises to $1.59, CO calls $1.59, fold, fold, fold, UTG raises to $4.97, Hero calls $3.38, fold

Flop: ($11.83, 2 players) 3♦ T♥ J♥
UTG bets $15.03 and is all-in

I can't put him off an overpair, JJJ or TTT. Some people you can tell they have AJ but you say you don't have mush history on the guy.

At this point I base my decision on bankroll management as to if I am willing to risk my entire stack yet. Some times I do.

I seen Helmuth fold aces preflop in a cash game once, he just wasn't ready yet.

There is no way, I am ever folding here. I think, that if this guy had a monster, there is at least a decent chance, he would slowplay it in one way or another. So I expect to see a lot of draws or random nonsense here. I would probably also just ship it pre to be honest. If this guy can manage to wake up with AA or KK after posting UTG, which is very fishy and almost the same as stradling in a live game, then more power to him

fundiver199 said:

There is no way, I am ever folding here. I think, that if this guy had a monster, there is at least a decent chance, he would slowplay it in one way or another. So I expect to see a lot of draws or random nonsense here. I would probably also just ship it pre to be honest. If this guy can manage to wake up with AA or KK after posting UTG, which is very fishy and almost the same as stradling in a live game, then more power to him

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V did not post UTG, he opened for a small sizing then 4 bet over Hero's 3 bet. Title is misleading. His 4 bet sizing isn't huge either seems standard which for an OOP player could indicate he doesn't want to us to fold. We have a bluff catcher here in my opinion. We can only beat AK or whatever 4 bet bluffs he may have. JJ and TT got there, QQ is chopping (and calling off stacks hoping to pay max rake and get a chop is pretty bad) and KK+ have us smoked. He has just over a pot sized bet in a 4 bet pot and is OOP. I think jamming his whole range here is fine. I would mostly be folding if I didn't get it in pre as fundiver suggested. Even 100% VP guys get monsters on occasion. How did his PFR and 3B stats progress over the session? That would be a better indicator of if he had a monster or not here.

jer0en72 said:

Hi,

I played this hand against a total unknown player and wondered what my next move is here. As said, no stats on the guy although later on he had a vpip of 93 so that could tell you something.



Pacific Poker - $0.20 NL - Holdem - 7 players


CO: $14.20
BTN: $20.45
SB: $21.31
BB: $19.80
UTG: $20.00
UTG+1: $36.73
Hero (MP): $20.30

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.20, UTG posts penalty blind $0.20

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.50) Hero has Q♣ Q♠

UTG raises to $0.53, fold, Hero raises to $1.59, CO calls $1.59, fold, fold, fold, UTG raises to $4.97, Hero calls $3.38, fold

Flop: ($11.83, 2 players) 3♦ T♥ J♥
UTG bets $15.03 and is all-in

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Hi jer0en, thank you very much for sharing with us. Well mate, sorry for my candor, but it seems odd when you state that;

A) The opponent is a total unknown

B) The opponent has VPIP 93

Well, we observe that A excludes B.
Second, for this particular situation we don't believe UTG had many bluffs and even the bluffs like AK for example has a lot of potential in flops like this.
We are not putting money on the pot because our opponent is Daniel Negreanu or a Nobody Donkey Whale: we put money on the pot for value and for bluff, not because our ego felt itself in the mood of leveling.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

jer0en72 said:

As said, no stats on the guy although later on he had a vpip of 93 so that could tell you something.

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Aballinamion said:

Well mate, sorry for my candor, but it seems odd when you state that;

A) The opponent is a total unknown

B) The opponent has VPIP 93

Well, we observe that A excludes B.
Second, for this particular situation we don't believe UTG had many bluffs and even the bluffs like AK for example has a lot of potential in flops like this.
We are not putting money on the pot because our opponent is Daniel Negreanu or a Nobody Donkey Whale: we put money on the pot for value and for bluff, not because our ego felt itself in the mood of leveling.

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Dude, take it easy. OP clearly says at the time of the decision he had no reads but V "LATER" turned out to be VP 93. I'm assuming Hero folded then after playing further thought that it was a bad fold and posted the hand for feedback. Before you challenge statements in the OP make sure you've read the OP correctly. And without knowing if he called or not why would we think his decision had anything to do with leveling or ego? If I'm wrong and he did call then maybe he thought there was enough of a chance that he had the best hand. We have all made questionable reads, no need to get into ego and leveling here.

Guys, thanks for all the replies. As I am asking questions here I will (almost) never take offense to your answers so don’t worry. As played I called and he showed KK. On this level however I see the same play with draws and top pair so didn’t think to much about it.

Maybe take a bit longer to think next time. Would this have been a river situation I would have snap folded as I have paid dearly to be shown monsters on the river every time. Seems there is no bluffing on the river at these stakes.

jer0en72 said:

Guys, thanks for all the replies. As I am asking questions here I will (almost) never take offense for your answers so don’t worry. As played I called and he showed KK. On this level however I see the same play with draws en top pair so didn’t think to much about it.

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No problem, 4 bet pots are on the rare side for 20NL though so I think ranges change quite a bit when the 4th bet goes in pre flop. I wouldn't expect many draws here other thank AK (with or without hearts). If he's 4 betting KQ from UTG then his PFR and 3B stats will eventually let you know this and you can adjust later.

If we give him a typical 4 bet range of QQ+, AK then we are behind with only 43% equity and facing an overbet shove. Our hand also doesn't improve often on this board as we only have backdoor straight outs, no hearts, and two outs to a set (and we're not sure if the Qh is safe). My main point is this isn't an auto stack off spot vs an unknown. I did say "mostly" folding. I don't think calling at some frequency is a huge mistake but without reads and facing an overbet it seems -EV.

c0rnBr34d said:

Dude, take it easy. OP clearly says at the time of the decision he had no reads but V "LATER" turned out to be VP 93. I'm assuming Hero folded then after playing further thought that it was a bad fold and posted the hand for feedback. Before you challenge statements in the OP make sure you've read the OP correctly. And without knowing if he called or not why would we think his decision had anything to do with leveling or ego? If I'm wrong and he did call then maybe he thought there was enough of a chance that he had the best hand. We have all made questionable reads, no need to get into ego and leveling here.

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Thanks for the input mate. Okay, I didn't perceive the total information because my computer is with several problems and sometimes I spend more than hour to post a thread or a comment.
Without the risk of rephrasing you, I agree with what you just have said.
I said about the ego because sometimes players take decisions not based on equity, mathematics, board configuration, perceived ranges, etc, sometimes, even me, why not? I am not perfect, sometimes I decide to go in a hand not thinking about these things but because something makes me feel hate about my opponent (calling station, lucky fish etc), and then I throw away a huge ammount of X BB / 100 in one single hand, based not in the methodology of the game, but upon the fact that the player is a recreational, with VPIP of 93 for example, which is very unusual for regulars, even for very small sample of hands such as 20, 30 hands played.
Sorry, my intention is to be clear and scientific, not to offend anyone. Let's go to the next level and quit this mexican soap opera once and for all. This is business and I take it very seriously, this is perhaps, my major mistake, because sometimes I can be very sincere (rude) and it is never my intention.
My intention is to make things clear and observe points that other lack on taking or seeing it. Thank you very much for your points, I will medidate upon them.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

c0rnBr34d said:

V did not post UTG, he opened for a small sizing then 4 bet over Hero's 3 bet.

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The hand history say, he posted a penalty blind. After doing that he made a standard open raise and a standard sized 4-bet. Posting a penalty blind especially UTG is a strong fish tell, since he just needed to wait one more hand to get dealt in.

fundiver199 said:

The hand history say, he posted a penalty blind. After doing that he made a standard open raise and a standard sized 4-bet. Posting a penalty blind especially UTG is a strong fish tell, since he just needed to wait one more hand to get dealt in.

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True, not saying this guy is a shark. That actually fits with the 90+ VP that he eventually showed. This doesn't mean he can't wake up with a hand when he 4 bets though right? Hard for me to make that much of a read based on just posting a fishy penalty blind UTG.

c0rnBr34d said:

This doesn't mean he can't wake up with a hand when he 4 bets though right?

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True but against someone, who is shaping up to be a fish, I will stack off a little wider, and that includes QQ. I also think, the decision has to be made preflop. If we are calling his 4-bet, its not just to set-mine, so we are not looking to get away, when we flop an overpair. If he can have TT-JJ, he can also have at least AK and AQ, and there are way more combos of those.

It is a gross spot I hate and I would 5bet all in or fold depending on my read as calling 4bet offers great odds for CO to tag along.

If i think UTG has a wider 4bet range incl AQo, A5s, KQs then I would jam preflop.

For HU spot, I would call 4bet preflop and likely fold to flop overpot jam with QQ and call with AKhh, KK,AA. Typically my 4bet calling range here is {QQ+ and AKs}