$20 NLHE Full Ring: Fold KK pre?

J

js520

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The villain who 4bets is unknown, ony 27 hands on him, his stats were 26/26 and he had 3bet once.

888 Poker - $0.20 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BB: $27.17
UTG: $20.00
UTG+1: $23.64
UTG+2: $20.00
Hero (MP): $21.82
MP+1: $17.44
CO: $20.20
BTN: $20.00
SB: $8.60

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.20

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.30) Hero has Kc Ks

UTG raises to $0.80, fold, fold, Hero raises to $2.40, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to $5.00, fold, Hero?
 
micromachine

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I'm shoveling it in every time here. Would only consider folding if he was known to be a massive nit.
 
RodneyC86

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I'd call that, could quite easily be QQ or AK given the stats suggesting some looseness... Can't fold 2nd nuts here, he's not likely a nit going on a heater with hands to the point that he got involved with a quarter of his hands so far.
 
Ducky7

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do not fold KK pre if he has AA its a cooler
 
JCgrind

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flat it dont shove, then check/shove every flop
 
micromachine

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flat it dont shove, then check/shove every flop

You still do that if he leads out for 2/3-3/4 pot on an AXX flop?? Or an even worse AQX flop? I can't see that being profitable for every flop.
 
mrmonkey

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js520, what is your reasoning for considering folding in this spot?
 
JCgrind

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You still do that if he leads out for 2/3-3/4 pot on an AXX flop?? Or an even worse AQX flop? I can't see that being profitable for every flop.

if villain leads for 2/3 of pot then im pretty happy jamming AXX as i cant see AK playing like this in a 4b pot w a hand. but obv id make up my mind at the time based on the other ~27 or whatever hands id seen. 4b ranges at 10/20NL imo are like AA KK QQ with a tiny bit of JJ and AK. lots of noobs flat AK and JJ to 3bs. therefore, since the A peeled the flop i feel like villain has QQ here ( i guess since they fold to me... could just be air?) just as often as AA/AK since the A on the board is obv a blocker. not to mention that like almost 100% of villains at these stakes wont cbet a set of aces OTF unless the board is uberconnected AKQxxx or some shit. guessing people will hate my logic a ton but blah blah turning KK into a bluff lol but meh it works in my experience. disclaimer, supermicros only

as for AQX i dunno thats just sick haha. either way, if theres no ace on the flop and/or the flop isnt QJT then 100% x/shove everytime lol.
 
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this is a situation u cant escape.but calling looks nice since an ace can save you money.if your opponent of course is holding aces you wont be seeing any ace but calling can trap him if hes holding qq or ak that could fold if u shoved. get it in anyway so that u have info on the opponent and avoid this tricky minraise next time.
 
JCgrind

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calling can trap him if hes holding qq/jj or ak that could fold if u shoved.

i cant believe i forgot to say this. ye this is the pretty much why we flat the 4b. if he has AA then w/e gg, was going in pre anyway
 
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js520

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u think its results that have made me ask this question but seriously, UTG raises, someone who rarely 3bets does so and the someone else 4bets, this is nearly always AA at these stakes. If i was the guy who 4bet I would have folded anything except AA/KK. People don't 3bet a tag's utg raise from mp with anything other than AA/KK usually even QQ/AK will sometimes flat, 4bettor knows this probably, from the few hands i have on him he's cleary not a drooler. I didin't want to just sick it and say 'oh well if he has AA it's a cooler'. It an avoidable cooler imo
 
JCgrind

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i totally agree its pretty face up as usually aces like a huuuuuge % of the time. but still, no matter what we arent folding pre. he caan still have other hands here, you have no history remember

so say you flatted his 4b (as i think you should have). if the flop came low and dry and he jams, do you call? if you can fold here because youre that confident he has AA then by all means do so. but if he has AA 100% of the time here hes also going to stack 99% of flops where you flop a set, which is 1 in 7.5 (i think). if i got my set odds right, then this is actually a profitable call for set mining.

do you see what im trying to get at?

but ye if u 5b jam this pre then he definitely calls w AA 100% of the time
 
mrmonkey

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u think its results that have made me ask this question but seriously, UTG raises, someone who rarely 3bets does so and the someone else 4bets, this is nearly always AA at these stakes. If i was the guy who 4bet I would have folded anything except AA/KK. People don't 3bet a tag's utg raise from mp with anything other than AA/KK usually even QQ/AK will sometimes flat, 4bettor knows this probably, from the few hands i have on him he's cleary not a drooler. I didin't want to just sick it and say 'oh well if he has AA it's a cooler'. It an avoidable cooler imo

That's info about the UTG that was not presented in your OP. It's sound reasoning, but two things: 1) how many hands do you have on UTG to consider him a solid TAG that has a narrow UTG preflop range and 2) 27 hands on 4-bettor is not much to go by in narrowing 4-bet range to KK+. No, he's probably not a drooler showing 26/26 even after just 27 hands, but he doesn't have to be a drooler to be 4-betting you with worse.

Given what you know, flatting is probably pretty good here since you have position and for the reasons mentioned previously. However, I don't think jamming is terrible either since I still think QQ and AK aren't folding 100% of the time against a relative unknown. Do you know what your stats look like in villain's HUD over the last 27 hands?
 
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js520

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Yea I should have said what UTG's stats were. They were 11/9 opening 7% utg over 1.9k hands. However obviously I don't know if BB has those stats and I don't know what he knows about me since he may have more hands on me (I only got hud about 3 weeks ago so may have played with him before that). But if the BB only had the hands on me from this session i was playing like 8/8 and hadn't 3bet yet (must have been pretty card dead over this small sample)

Jchoop we are calling to $2.60 to win $25.10 so yea if we are playing strictly to setmine if we are 100% certain he has Aces then I guess this is correct.

MrMonkey are you suggesting calling and then commiting on any board so that we keep the potential of QQ/AK in which may fold to the 5bet? Or would you fold on some boards?
 
mrmonkey

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Mostly calling to keep in value from QQ/AK (or worse) from an aggressive villain who is playing OOP, and almost never folding postflop. I see this hand as meeting AA being a cooler until we have more history with villain to more definitively suspect otherwise.
 
JCgrind

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yah. so flat 4b 100% of the time in this spot imo. if were 100% he has AA then we can call to setmine. if we arent 100% he has aces we jam over his Cbet OTF
 
JOEBOB69

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Mostly calling to keep in value from QQ/AK (or worse) from an aggressive villain who is playing OOP, and almost never folding postflop. I see this hand as meeting AA being a cooler until we have more history with villain to more definitively suspect otherwise.
So we can 5bet bluff ATC an get QQ-AKs to fold pre? There seems to be some error in this logic.O and flatting 4bets seems stronger to me than just 5bet shoving...
 
JCgrind

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So we can 5bet bluff ATC an get QQ-AKs to fold pre? There seems to be some error in this logic.O and flatting 4bets seems stronger to me than just 5bet shoving...

no way. esp with no history, if you flat a 4b people will just auto fishtag you not think you have the nuts
 
Extreme Fishing

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I'm never folding either, just a cooler if AA imo. Jam!
 
mrmonkey

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So we can 5bet bluff ATC an get QQ-AKs to fold pre? There seems to be some error in this logic.O and flatting 4bets seems stronger to me than just 5bet shoving...

Not saying that at all. As we have little history with villain, unlike choop I don't think QQ/AK folds pre to shove 100%... maybe like 60%. However, since villain has shown a slight tendency towards aggro, if we flat the 4bet I think he cbets most flops with hands we have crushed. I don't hate shoving over pre, but I think flatting the 4bet against this villain is perhaps slightly better because I think we do extract more value from hands we beat that would probably fold to a preflop shove.
 
fletchdad

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I just looked at my past 13K hands, all in pre with KK 6 times, vs: AA 2x, AJo,1x, QQ1x, 73s (lol yea, only 1x) and AKo 1x.

One of the AA had a 2% 4bet, and I strongly considered folding since he was a TAG reg and did not get out of line.

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cas...-nlhe-6-max-another-those-214739/#post1965350

I have never folded KK pre. I just cant kind the fold button. My HEM shows me profiting in AI situations with KK, but lol 6 hands. Funny, I am showing a loss of 770BB per 100hands in those six hands.....
At PS I have 78 hands showing a 2015 BB per 100 profit, so, guess folding KK is not an option.
 
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JCgrind

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I just looked at my past 13K hands, all in pre with KK 6 times, vs: AA 2x, AJo,1x, QQ1x, 73s (lol yea, only 1x) and AKo 1x.

One of the AA had a 2% 4bet, and I strongly considered folding since he was a TAG reg and did not get out of line.

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cas...-nlhe-6-max-another-those-214739/#post1965350

I have never folded KK pre. I just cant kind the fold button. My HEM shows me profiting in AI situations with KK, but lol 6 hands. Funny, I am showing a loss of 770BB per 100hands in those six hands.....
At PS I have 78 hands showing a 2015 BB per 100 profit, so, guess folding KK is not an option.

now look at all the times you 5b shoved it and got folds, and youll see why jamming it pre loses us value (EDIT: actually you probably wont since lol samplesize). naturally i assume as a general rule that people wont be calling you off w 73 lol...

and ye since when did i say that QQ and AK will fold to a 5b shove 100% of the time? if they fold some of the time were losing money. and if we peg villain for having at least 50% bluffs in his 4b range (which is entirely plausible) then ye we can shove ATC that we 3b and profit... not to mention the metagame advantages of doing so
 
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