$20 NLHE Full Ring: Flopped Set vs Nit UTG Open. Deep Stacks

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eggerdy

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PokerStars - $0.16 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $41.04
SB: $16.00 (VPIP: 23.34, PFR: 16.22, 3Bet Preflop: 4.40, hands: 1,071)
BB: $20.33 (VPIP: 18.08, PFR: 12.46, 3Bet Preflop: 2.46, Hands: 3,397)
UTG: $47.31 (VPIP: 10.61, PFR: 8.57, 3Bet Preflop: 1.41, Hands: 540)
UTG+1: $12.59 (VPIP: 21.58, PFR: 12.23, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 139)
MP: $13.92 (VPIP: 26.83, PFR: 14.72, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 166)
MP+1: $12.81 (VPIP: 23.60, PFR: 17.56, 3Bet Preflop: 7.25, Hands: 908)
CO: $23.99 (VPIP: 21.53, PFR: 11.96, 3Bet Preflop: 1.12, Hands: 212)

SB posts SB $0.08, BB posts BB $0.16

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.24) Hero has Q Q

UTG raises to $0.48, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.48, SB calls $0.40, fold

Flop: ($1.60, 3 players) 2 Q 7
SB checks, UTG bets $0.87, Hero raises to $2.08, fold, UTG calls $1.21

Turn: ($5.76, 2 players) 3
UTG checks, Hero bets $4.12, UTG calls $4.12

River: ($14.00, 2 players) K
UTG checks, Hero bets $13.37, UTG raises to $40.63 and is all-in, fold

UTG wins $39.24

How was my play? Looking back I should probably raise more on the flop.
 
Trabendo_daze

Trabendo_daze

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Wait wait. You folded second set? I think hand is totally good up until the river. I don't think we ever fold this man, if he has KK he has KK, but like gah our hand is too strong?

I mean I can definitely see an argument for this but like can't he have 77 here too? Or maybe KQ? If he has literally just a few combos of those hands we need to call this off...only 3 combos beat us.
 
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MinhANguyen

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UTG almost never has 77/KQ in his range. And even the times he does, I doubt he plays them this way 200bb deep. His overall PFR is tight, so his UTG range is super narrow. Probably JJ+ AQs.

God, river is such a shitty spot. I'd probably time down and end up folding like you did, and hate the software for putting out that K there. He's never jamming AA here, and there's literally no hand you really beat 200bb deep when he just calls all the way down and check-jams over your pot-sized bet.
 
TimovieMan

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I can't make this fold.
If he rivered a 2-outer with his KK, then so be it, but this is going to be 77/KQ or even an AA spaz at least *some* of the time, imo.


Edit: I've seen plenty of opponents with similar stats that hardly open up in late position. That means they open 7% UTG, but only 16% OTB. If it's this kind of villain, then KQ and especially 77 are going to be in his range after all.
 
Delvuter

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Huh, I know I fold to much, but this is really something. No flush or straight draws make it, and the board doesn't pair. If you fold sets under those circumstances over the long wrong, not even that long of a run, you are going to be tossing out money. We want to put people on a range, not an exact hand. We run V range to determine +-EV, we don't put them on a hand. Fold was an mathematical error.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I call and fistpump personally. If you got coolered, then learn to run better.
 
Trabendo_daze

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Yeah honestly running better is a part my game that I need to work on. I'd suggest you dedicate at least a couple of hours a week to that. 77/KQ and random AA spaz have to be there often enough to call. We can't even puke fold this. Folding is way too nitty Minh man
 
IPlay

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Is anybody else looking at these stats and thinking folding isn't THAT crazy?

UTG: $47.31 (VPIP: 10.61, PFR: 8.57, 3Bet Preflop: 1.41, Hands: 540)

77 probably 3 bets flop or x/raises turn and it is incredibly hard for UTG to show up with KQ here. This is Full Ring vs a super nit that raised UTG. He probably correctly open folds KQ UTG and nittly folds 77 UTG(Some would argue folding 77 UTG in full ring is correct).

This guy is such a nit I think we can discount AA and AcKc spaz that gets to river. The only thing we beat on river is AcJc that spaz bluffed the K on the river.
 
okeedokalee

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You can almost rely on Stars to put out KK v your QQ pocket.Another site, or live it is an instant call.
Extremely disciplined fold but probably correct on Stars.
I think an extreme nit doesn't open 7/7 or AQs, UTG, in a full ring game.
Looking at his stack he has twice the rest.This could be a very good player, who has used his image, to bluff you when the king landed on the river.
Had you re-raised pre-flop, instead of just calling, you would have then discovered by his reaction, the true size of his holding.
 
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IPlay

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You can almost rely on Stars to put out KK v your QQ pocket.Another site, or live it is an instant call.
Extremely disciplined fold but probably correct on Stars.
I think an extreme nit doesn't open 7/7 or AQs, UTG, in a full ring game.
Looking at his stack he has twice the rest.This could be a very good player, who has used his image, to bluff you when the king landed on the river.
Had you re-raised pre-flop, instead of just calling, you would have then discovered by his reaction, the true size of his holding.

What bluffs does the nit make it to river with though? AcJc exactly and will a nit put his entire stack on the line with a bluff after the strength we have shown? Would a nit call the turn with a draw without the proper odds? Would a nit overplay AA or AcKc on this river? Probably not. I'm not saying I'd make this fold in the moment but taking your time and breaking down this hand can almost narrow the nit to KK exactly.
 
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eggerdy

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The main reason I folded was the stack sizes. For 100bbs I'd call without thinking but at +200bb I wasn't so sure. Plus I had a gut feeling that he'd got there, as he insta jammed when I bet the river.

I hate playing with deep stacks ! :(

fwiw I checked villain's stats and he's raising 7% from EP, so TimovieMan is right in thinking that 77 and KQ could be in his range. Although I agree with Iplay that 77's probably raise at some point before the river.

Thanks for the replies.
 
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Broon1234

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you're getting 1.5:1 here to call. Villian's range utg is likely something like KK, AA, AKs, AK, AQs. Maybe he has KK but he could have something like AA or AcKc or even a KQs. What was his image of you? Too hard to fold imo but definitely a difficult spot.
 
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MinhANguyen

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The main reason I folded was the stack sizes. For 100bbs I'd call without thinking but at +200bb I wasn't so sure. Plus I had a gut feeling that he'd got there, as he insta jammed when I bet the river.

I hate playing with deep stacks ! :(

fwiw I checked villain's stats and he's raising 7% from EP, so TimovieMan is right in thinking that 77 and KQ could be in his range. Although I agree with Iplay that 77's probably raise at some point before the river.

Thanks for the replies.

Yeah, when he insta-jams I think it's almost always KK. Very rarely 77/KQcc. If I remember correctly playing around with pokerstove ranges, 77/KQcc shouldn't be inclusive in a 7% PFR. Even if he had 77, he most likely raises somewhere before the river with clubs out there. And I think he just check-calls KQcc, if he even open that, most of the time too.

I think trusting your read/instincts becomes somewhat valuable, especially the more you play. I was once in a similar spot to yours with 2nd nuts with full house (holding 44) vs river x/jam 215bb deep vs runner runner KJ full house. My instinct was to fold, but I started making excuses to call. "Maybe he has a tricky played 22 for lower boat or AJ for trips top kicker." Nah. Some other spots in big pots my instinct was to fold, but I didn't trust it. Kept leveling myself into calling. Of course sometimes they'll be wrong, but if you've been playing at the table for a while and have stats on your opponent, you'll probably have a better assessment of their range.

Lol at a nit insta x/jamming AKcc/AA when the K rolls off. That is just kinda absurd... Has anyone ever seen anyone else 200bb deep (especially a presumably decent/winning nit) call a flop raise, call a turn bet, and then jam over a super nutted river PSB with one pair...? I play deep pretty often, and every time I've seen deepstackers get into a huge war postflop or been in one myself, it's always nuts vs second nuts/third nuts or the occasional crazy stonecold bluff.

I mean, calling here can't be a super big mistake given odds we are getting and the fact that we are good a small % of the time. But finding folds in big pots like these where you're almost always beat will help your winrate imo.
 
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TimovieMan

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We should stop talking about KQ, because he's NEVER playing KQo, and there is no KQs possible.
There are 3 Qs and 1 K visible, and they contain all 4 suits. He can't have KQs.

So either this is a 77 slowplay that should've repopped the flop or at least popped the turn, or a spaz with AA/AcKc.
KK is the only hand that truly makes sense.

Still can't make that fold, though.
 
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