$20 NLHE Full Ring: Do you bluff river here?

Figaroo2

Figaroo2

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 18/15/2.1

Pacific, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

Hero (BB): $20.80 (104 bb)
BTN: $20 (100 bb)VPIP: 18, PFR: 15, 3B: 7, AF: 2.1, Hands: 1836 Good reg

Preflop: Hero is BB with T
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Q
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5 folds, BTN raises to $0.50, SB folds, Hero calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.10) 6
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9
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7
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(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.65, Hero raises to $1.85, BTN calls $1.20
I mistakenly thought I had a double gutter here but I still like the play with this holding anyway. He is 42% steal from the button.

Turn: ($4.80) J
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(2 players) Open ended now.
Hero bets $2.60, BTN calls $2.60

River: ($10) J
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(2 players)
Hero?
We both have $15 behind

Notes: Villian shows as an eagle on HM2 so well balanced.
Villian is wtsd 29% which is sfairly sticky for this type of slightly looser full ring reg.
Not previously tested him with a 3rd barrel, he won't have seen me bluff in these spots before.
 
John A

John A

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I think with the backdoors and overs I'd just c/c the flop. I don't hate the CR. But as played, as far as river, yes. All day every day. Hero bets $9. If he's sticky like you say, might go to $11.
 
R

RakeMyLife

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Great post!

I'm definitely leaning toward a bluff here. Also, it's very important that he hasn't seen you bluff before as he'll be deciding between whether you're bluffing or have a boat.


I'm thinking he had either AA-QQ, outside chance at 10-10.
 
EvertonGirl

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I would bluff the river for sure.
 
Ahoy

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Hard to say but if I think about it this is what I get:

What are you trying to represent?
What would be your value range on the river? Lets say AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, basically any Jx and flopped sets which turned into boats.


But the real question is
Which of these hands check raise the flop?
Hardly any maybe J10. Other than that, I see no check raise range here that improved on turn and river.
Ofc turn completes some straight possibilities but how many of those hands are you defending from the BB?


I would say, very few.


Are you check raising the flop with a set?
Thats the question. Me,personally,I am not.


On the other hand, which hands of all hands possible are you check raising on the flop?
QT, for example, and all the others straight draws. Jack completes straight if you hold 10 8 and thats highly unprobable. Im not defending BB with 10 8.


From my perspective, I wouldn't bluff here.
You hardly hold any value hands besides Jx but again those hands are not check raising the flop expect JT.


That shrinks our value range here on flopped sets and JT.


Wouldn't you 3bet preflop with pocket pairs?
Hard to say.


HOWEVER, WHAT IS YOUR BLUFFING RANGE HERE?
All those missed draws. Thats a lot of hands.


If I am the villain I am calling you here pretty often. This bluff from my breakdown doesnt have any sense...
 
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AlbieTross

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I'd say go for it and pray for the fold!
 
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RakeMyLife

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On the other hand, which hands of all hands possible are you check raising on the flop?
QT, for example, and all the others straight draws. Jack completes straight if you hold 10 8 and thats highly unprobable. Im not defending BB with 10 8.


Wouldn't you 3bet preflop with pocket pairs?
Hard to say.

Which is more common at low stakes: Someone check-raising a draw OR someone check-raising a set?


To say there's too many hands in his bluff range seems to ignore this fact.
 
Ahoy

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Which is more common at low stakes: Someone check-raising a draw OR someone check-raising a set?


To say there's too many hands in his bluff range seems to ignore this fact.

I quite dont understand the latter sentence.

I meant, that I dont see people check raising sets on flop too often.
Also pocket pairs are more likely to 3-bet preflop, notice the small raise preflop by the BTN.
I would 3-bet most of my pocket pairs there.
 
R

RakeMyLife

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I quite dont understand the latter sentence.

I meant, that I dont see people check raising sets on flop too often.
Also pocket pairs are more likely to 3-bet preflop, notice the small raise preflop by the BTN.
I would 3-bet most of my pocket pairs there.

It’s more common for low stakes players to check-raise a set than to check-raise a draw, which means his boat range is wider than his bluff range.


MANY low stakes players don’t 3-bet preflop, period. So I wouldn’t exclude any pocket pairs, save AA/KK.
 
Figaroo2

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I quite dont understand the latter sentence.
I meant, that I dont see people check raising sets on flop too often.
Also pocket pairs are more likely to 3-bet preflop, notice the small raise preflop by the BTN.
I would 3-bet most of my pocket pairs there.

The only pairs I three bet here are 22 33 44, and JJ+
55 through TT are all flats, no way I want to have to fold a hand that strong to a potentially light button 4bet from a reg.

This flop smashes my range as the preflop caller. Against a reg like this I will usually check raise my sets to balance my check raises with hands like this one, it depends on how agro they are.
Most regs will flat a flop check raise with a decent overpair here and proceed with caution. If I check raised a set then I bet small on the turn to keep them in and size the river depending on the runout. If any obvious draws miss shoving will often get paid off as he thinks you check raised with a draw and it whiffed.
Personally I'm not sure about this JJ runout for bluffing which is why I was asking the question.
 
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Figaroo2

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I think with the backdoors and overs I'd just c/c the flop. I don't hate the CR. But as played, as far as river, yes. All day every day. Hero bets $9. If he's sticky like you say, might go to $11.

These are exactly the sort of hands that POLK is telling people to flop check raise in the postflop masterclass on Upswing. The backdoors/gutshots/overs are going to get there enough to fire for value on the end a reasonable amount of the time.
He does advocate firing the 3rd most of the time following a flop check raise particularly if draws arrive that you can rep.
 
Ahoy

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These are exactly the sort of hands that POLK is telling people to flop check raise in the postflop masterclass on Upswing. The backdoors/gutshots/overs are going to get there enough to fire for value on the end a reasonable amount of the time.
He does advocate firing the 3rd most of the time following a flop check raise particularly if draws arrive that you can rep.


Did you get the more expensive course? I purchaes the cheapest one, is that the one you talk about? :)
I want to purchase the lab so if you got it, I would appriciate your review ;)
 
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