$20 NLHE Full Ring: Do you river bet? and if so what sizing?

Figaroo2

Figaroo2

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 23/11/4.7

Pacific, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players

SB: $20.10 (100.5 bb)
BB: $11.30 (56.5 bb)
MP1: $17.55 (87.8 bb)
MP2: $23.87 (119.4 bb)VPIP: 23, PFR: 11, 3B: 4, AF: 4.7, Hands: 1099
MP3: $23.69 (118.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $20 (100 bb)
BTN: $20.90 (104.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q
club4.gif
Q
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MP1 folds, MP2 raises to $0.70, MP3 folds, Hero raises to $1.97, 3 folds, MP2 calls $1.27

Flop: ($4.24) 6
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9
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3
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(2 players)
MP2 bets $2.12, Hero calls $2.12

Turn: ($8.48) 7
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(2 players)
MP2 bets $1.64, Hero raises to $3.28, MP2 calls $1.64

River: ($15.04) 4
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(2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero?
Villain is aggressive, so do you go for thin value and risk reopening the betting here? Or do you check it back and settle for what we have?
 
AlexGrinStar

AlexGrinStar

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I think we are betting on the river against an aggressive opponent! if of course you do not have notes on him, that he can set traps... set or "5" unlikely...
most likely there are overcards or seldom 1010, JJ...
"and if so what sizing?" - I think half a pot will be enough, but if the opponent is going all-in, you'll have to call for odds...
 
IPlay

IPlay

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After we raise the turn that isn't great for us we should probably just check back river or bet <40%. Anything larger shouldnt be getting called by worse
 
MattRyder

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I would check the river. You only have one over pair. If you bet, he either jams or folds. If he jams, he may or may not have you beat, but then you've created a tough decision that you're going to have to make.
 
mvrkaus

mvrkaus

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Id check back. You already have extra value from the turn raise, you're holding an over pair, but its still just a pair. Betting will either get you folds or just make the easy high percentage win into a difficult situation that might even make you fold the best hand. Take the W!
 
U

underdog140

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I feel like the most likely outcomes with a river bet ( with not knowing much about the opponent ) is either you get re-raised by a big hand / bluffed or the other player folds. The safer play is to check.
 
Q

QA77

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I think after you raise, its good to check back. If you don't raise, its a clear bet if he checks back the river.
 
walluyo

walluyo

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with that wet board i will check the river
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I just cram it in cuz your opponent is a fish with an overpair, most of which are worse than ours.
 
K

KFlint

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If he had to make a move with a stronger hand, that would have been reraising you on the turn imo. Calling doesn't scream strength and river is a brick. I'd bet the river and don't except to be behind that often. Weird line that deserves a note, would like to see his cards for sure.
 
E

elcuzz

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I'd check the river
I'm not getting called he's either gonna jam or fold
And if he jams you'd have to call for odds
So I wouldn't put my self in that position
 
P

Prithviaditya Singh

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Bet like 2$ and fold if he raises by more than 3$ also I don't think he has a set as a set would've bet a lot larger on the turn or definitely 3 bet the turn,(he could've made the set on the river that would make a lot of sense but that's a small part of his call check range) it's mostly TT, JJ, Ax(x>9)s so a small value bet is okay and you don't lose your stack if you got coolered, also only three hands which I think he can reasonably have here that beat you are 66, 55, 75s and 97s of which 97 and 75 probably don't push so you can easily value bet
 
C

clayvision

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I think this is actually a pretty good spot to value bet here

Im a bit unsure about your turn raise, but against this player type...eh whatever

Against this player i dont think hes the type thats going to jam on you without the nuts, i also think its pretty tough for him to have a 5, i also think its pretty tough for him to have 2 pair the only combo i can think of is 76s of which there are two, you have the best hand alot here barring flopped sets

I would just bet like half pot and be done with it
 
Figaroo2

Figaroo2

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hand result

Missed value on the river by not betting, tut tut.
 

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J

Joeypop82

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Checking is always a safe play descent pot size doesnt need additional bet.
 
Ahoy

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I already replied to you personally but I feel the need of replying here because I feel like most of the advice given to you here is not particularly right.

If villain is hyper aggressive we expect him to 4-bet AA KK QQ and AK preflop (maybe even JJ, depending on his 4-bet stat).

You are repping the stronger range here by 3-betting preflop.
His turn bet is stupidly small, if he has a set :
1. He should not be donking into you, because you have the range advantage and you should be the one betting here, not to mention that he would be folding out hands like AK which you would C-bet if checked to
2. He is not going to bet the turn so small with a set - the board is kinda dicy and he wants to extract maximum value from your overpairs which you have a TON in your range

Once you clicked him back on turn and he called and did not shove, Im 100% sure you are ahead here mate. Set is reraising you all in on the turn to prevent you slipping away if a scarecard hits the river.

Once he only calls turn AND checks the river, I would personally put him on a missed straight draw which has paired along the way (the first thing that came to my mind was 78s )

I am personally betting the river REALLY SMALL like 1 - 2 dollars to induce a loose call with some kind of a shitty pair. Dont expect him to bluff the river. He has almost no leverage to raise bluff on the river and people on micros generally dont raise bluff.
Easy river valuebet. :birthday:

EDIT: If you find out he was slowplaying AA or KK here, or trapping the river with a set note it. He is losing shit ton of value playing like that with his table image. If he has an aggressive image he should continue betting on the river if he bet the flop and turn.
 
johnwat2

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I would check. I've lost too many times to 2 pair in this situation. If you bet and
get raised you are in a tough situation.
 
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