$20 NLHE Full Ring: AQs Flop TPGK + Poker Razor Analysis

Jurn8

Jurn8

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$20 NL HE Full Ring: AQs Flop TPGK + Poker Razor Analysis

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 15/9/4.3

Villian here 3bets in total 6.9% and 3bets from the button 20% which is why I flatted OOP. First is this bad? I thought I was able to call for value although I am OOP. Secondly are we looking to check raise this board and get it in vs this villian because his 3betting range is so wide?

poker stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP3: $8.40 (33.6 bb)
CO: $37.55 (150.2 bb)
BTN: $25 (100 bb)
SB: $5.35 (21.4 bb)
BB: $32.65 (130.6 bb)
UTG+1: $6.45 (25.8 bb)
MP1: $47.35 (189.4 bb)
Hero (MP2): $25 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP2 with Q:spade: A:spade:
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, BTN raises to $2.40, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.65

Flop: ($5.15) 5:club: A:heart: 3:spade: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $4.40, Hero ??

My thinking behind this decision is that its ok to get it in here because he 3bets so wide and will stack weaker aces AJ/A10 or under pairs such as QQ - 10s. I have provided a pokerstove to see if I am doing it right and also it shows I have 76.9% with TPGK and a BDFD.

what do you guys think about this?
 

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ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Sample size is pretty important with respect to the 3betting, especially by position. I seriously doubt he 3bets that much on the button over a large sample; I've yet to find a regular who does in my games, nevermind the fact that he's pretty nitty otherwise.

If it is accurate (read: sample is more than a thousand hands or so), there's something to be said about stacking AQs preflop, but that depends on his fold to 4bet stat.

As played, postflop is usually a c/c since by c/r we're giving him the chance to fold AT and 99 and stuff, whereas he may continue to bluff/value bet if we c/c. Also, it's not guaranteed he has AT/AJ etc in his range. Just saying he's a %20 3bettor doesn't mean he 3bets the top %20 of hands. He could be in there strictly with value hands (JJ+/AQs+ or even only AK), and bluffs/semibluffs (67s/22/etc), which would lean our decision to a c/c to let him barrel his bluffing range.

Regarding him stacking QQ-TT, well that's just not going to happen. Not often at least. He #1 may not cbet it and #2 probably won't stack when c/raised, which makes the line of both #1 and #2 even less likely.

With that kind of 3bet we can't let go of TP here, but how we play it is important.
 
Jurn8

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shit sorry forgot to mention 250 hand sample
 
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switch0723

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250 hands is not a sample, especially for 3bets since hes probably 3bet like twice in that sample.

c/c flop is far superior to c/r, then i like donk betting/calling turn for the wtf factor
 
ChuckTs

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yeah that sample size basically means nothing. I'd bet the 3bet sample is 1/5 hands = %20.

Thing with pokerazor and even pokerstove is that they rely on information, and only give out reliable results if the information is actually accurate. The information we're using here just isn't solid enough to even bother doing anything other than assuming he's 3betting kinda wide and so we can comfortably call it off with TP here. Given it's that small of a sample I can find a case for folding pf actually, because playing oop in a 3bet pot sucks balls and is even worse when you're basically going in readless.
 
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switch0723

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ye i fold preflop, since the fact his pfr is 9 even over the tiny sample implies he isnt laggy, so i very much doubt he has a,j or a,t here, just going to have to sigh and try to take weird lines to max value from jj-kk
 
Jurn8

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yeah tbh I called OOP because of his 3bet stat and thought my sample was ok but at least I know now that I shouldnt take much notice of 3bet stat until its 1k+.

thanks guys
 
ChuckTs

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Well I don't pay as much to his whole sample size, but his sample specific to 3betting (and by position). I mean if it's 1/5 times then it doesn't really mean anything, but even if it's like 4/20 or more, and say he 3bets the CO quite a bit too, well then you can make the assumption that he could be 3betting wide IP.
 
Jurn8

Jurn8

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so whats roughly a good sample size for 3betting by position taylor?
 
trewtrew

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on the flop i would smooth call and then check the turn and if he continues to bet i would lay it down unless the turn is a Q or a spade. The advantage of the A 3 5 board is that if ur opponent does have AK and the turn comes a 4 or 2 then he would probably check behind the turn minamilizing ur loss in the hand.
 
Lemlywinks

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Good to know about the sample size on 3bets. I tend to focus on that stuff after 100+ hands, never really put two and two together

For the hand: As played, I call the flop. and beluga the turn assuming he leads out again. If checked to, I'm probably just jamming
 
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