€20 NLHE Full Ring: A common river decision.

Thinker_145

Thinker_145

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iPoker - €0.20 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 118.5 BB (VPIP: 35.88, PFR: 10.97, 3Bet Preflop: 2.38, hands: 6,090)
CO: 33.4 BB (VPIP: 10.83, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 120)
Hero (BTN): 140.25 BB
SB: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 30.84, PFR: 21.96, 3Bet Preflop: 2.78, Hands: 218)
BB: 110.95 BB (VPIP: 21.77, PFR: 10.41, 3Bet Preflop: 2.18, Hands: 835)
UTG: 125.6 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 9.38, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 33)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8:spade: 8:diamond:

fold, MP calls 1 BB, CO calls 1 BB, Hero calls 1 BB, SB calls 0.5 BB, BB checks

Flop: (5 BB, 5 players) J:club: 4:spade: 8:club:
SB checks, BB checks, MP bets 2.5 BB, CO calls 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 10.5 BB, fold, fold, MP calls 8 BB, fold

Turn: (28.5 BB, 2 players) T:diamond:
MP checks, Hero bets 19.95 BB, MP calls 19.95 BB

River: (68.4 BB, 2 players) 5:club:
MP bets 35 BB, Hero ??

This is quite a common situation to occur. I am not just making this thread to ask specifically about this hand but these sort of situations in general? The villain in question hardly gets out of line much and generally doesn't make big raises even with monsters. You know one of those players who will always make small 1 bets.

So just because he didn't raise too much here its "okay" to just pay him off? Or should we call this just so we aren't exploited in such situations? Is it -EV to call if I am pretty confident he has a flush?
 
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JKo2theQQ

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With your description of the villain, I would not call in this specific spot. Actually, I think I would fold this one 90%+. With the turn and the river filling in tons of straights and flushes......I just can't do it. I DO get what you are saying about calling once in a while here even when you are pretty sure you are beat and that's a good point. I think it would def pay off in the long run. If you are always folding when the flush lands on the river......I would take advantage of it. So I'm sure others would as well.
 
JimmyBrizzy

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I like raising here on the button to get more money out of that MP. Any idea if he folds a good amount to cbets?

Continuation bet and turn bet could be a little bigger, but I think the fold on the river is the right move here.
 
Thinker_145

Thinker_145

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I like raising here on the button to get more money out of that MP. Any idea if he folds a good amount to cbets?

Continuation bet and turn bet could be a little bigger, but I think the fold on the river is the right move here.
No he doesn't fold too easily and will chase his draws till the end even OOP.

Where exactly are you suggesting I should raise? I raised the flop and turn good amount I believe.
 
JimmyBrizzy

JimmyBrizzy

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sorry - meant to say raising preflop on the button
 
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ScottishMatt

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This is obvs a fold. I wouldn't bother trying to balance so you don't get exploited against players like this. They aren't thinking that deeply and calling doesn't net you anything in any way.
 
Figaroo2

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A preflop raise in position would give you a better read of what you are up against. If you think he is drawing, the turn bet is enough to deny him express odds to draw but not if you always pay them off on the river and give them implied odds. Don't pay off this one it's too obvious. Call more in the bigger 3 bet pots were there are less suited hands and villain will bluff more. You can't go wrong making pot sized bets flop and turn here with 2nd set.
 
John A

John A

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You need to raise pre-flop though, for many many reasons. I think if you looked at the profitability long term of limping behind here vs. raising it would be a gigantic titanic size EV difference.

So raise more on the flop, bet more on the turn, and pay off the river. I agree that bet sizing, and how this guy played the hand and the fact he's now leading the river is all the tell tale signs of a fish playing a draw. But fish do bluff here sometimes. He could be betting for value a % of the time with two pair. He'll even surprise you and turn over a badly played set of 4's sometimes. I think it's enough to warrant a call getting 3:1. It's not a super high +EV call based on this specific kind of fish and the way the hand played. He's going to have a flush a large portion of the time.
 
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