€20 NLHE 6-max: Would you have given up on the flop?

Thinker_145

Thinker_145

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The most devastating hand of all time. I am at a loss of words.

iPoker - €0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 650.6 BB
SB: 106.05 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 15.63, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 32)
BB: 469.95 BB (VPIP: 96.91, PFR: 61.17, 3Bet Preflop: 26.15, Hands: 299)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 22.86, PFR: 17.56, 3Bet Preflop: 8.15, Hands: 3,344)
MP: 206.3 BB (VPIP: 16.78, PFR: 10.17, 3Bet Preflop: 3.35, Hands: 2,038)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 20.66, PFR: 11.67, 3Bet Preflop: 3.03, Hands: 6,315)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:diamond: A:heart:

fold, MP calls 1 BB, fold, Hero calls 1 BB, SB calls 0.5 BB, BB raises to 3 BB, MP calls 2 BB, Hero raises to 100 BB, fold, BB calls 97 BB, fold

Flop: (204 BB, 2 players) T:spade: J:spade: 4:spade:
BB checks, Hero bets 225 BB, BB calls 225 BB

Turn: (654 BB, 2 players) 2:spade:
BB checks, Hero bets 150 BB, BB calls 144.95 BB

River: (943.9 BB, 2 players) 3:club:

Hero shows A:diamond: A:heart: (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 94%, Flop 63%, Turn 0%)
BB shows 6:diamond: A:spade: (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 6%, Flop 37%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 5.05 BB
BB wins 928.9 BB
 
A

arod6893

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Look I never ever say anything negative here on this forum, but what the hell were you doing here? Lol

Re raise 100BB on the flop? Regardless of his range, VPIP, whatever, thats not poker. Thats irrational.

I mean on the turn, you could have saved yourself money and folded, as well as betting cheaper on the flop. I'll bet my bankroll he's not folding a Q,K, or A of spades anyway. I mean you virtually told him your hand pre flop.

Dont let your ego get in the way.
 
Thinker_145

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Look I never ever say anything negative here on this forum, but what the hell were you doing here? Lol

Re raise 100BB on the flop? Regardless of his range, VPIP, whatever, thats not poker. Thats irrational.

I mean on the turn, you could have saved yourself money and folded, as well as betting cheaper on the flop. I'll bet my bankroll he's not folding a Q,K, or A of spades anyway. I mean you virtually told him your hand pre flop.

Dont let your ego get in the way.

I reraised 100BB pre flop. What's wrong in raising whatever one wants to with AA preflop? Preflop is the least of my worries heck I'll probably raise even more if such a situation arrived again.

By the turn I have 70% of the effective stack in.

But that flop was as ugly as it gets with AA. I still made him call off virtually his whole stack drawing but I just wonder if one should employ some variance control in situations like this. I mean I just don't know.
 
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IPlay

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With our raise sizing pre we need to consider the SPR going to the flop and what we want that to look like when we bet each street in an attempt to get stacks in by the turn/river. Your raise sizing left you with a very awkward SPR when going to post flop. I prefer a raise size to ~65bbs and when called we go to the flop with a pot of ~130bbs, now we bet 100bbs on the flop, get called and now we have a ~330bb pot on the turn with ~300bb left behind in effective stacks. I much prefer to GII this way over raising to 100bb and going to the flop with an SPR of ~1.7 which is just super awkward and your flop sizing is super awkward. The other benefit of my sizings is that we can potentially get away from nut worst turns such as this one since we won't be getting a godly price on a call.

I get it that we want to bet as much as the fish will call though but I'd argue that 90-110bbs is the worst raise we can make in terms of post flop SPR and that I'd either choose 55-75bb or 130-150bb as my raise sizing IF you think he will call. I would choose the smaller end of the spectrum almost every time though unless I knew for sure he would call a raise that huge.

Ghost edit, once he calls that stupidly large unconventional(not hating on the bet but it is what it is :p ) of a bet pre why don't we just jam for 2.2x on this flop. Surely he isn't folding any flops he connects with after calling a 35x 3 bet pre. Another edit, if you want to control variance just don't play with such deep effective stacks pre unless the table is great(which is why you are probably in this situation) I would NOT however control variance at the cost of getting value out of a mega whale, that is just a mistake. One last edit to answer the title of the thread, once we raise so large pre and create an SPR of ~1.7 it is extremely hard to fold post flop and probably will never be correct. If you don't want to play for stacks then take control pre and choose a bet sizing that will create an SPR ~3.5+. Once we choose this sizing pre though we have to bet this flop and have to be pot committed at this point.
 
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A

arod6893

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I reraised 100BB pre flop. What's wrong in raising whatever one wants to with AA preflop? Preflop is the least of my worries heck I'll probably raise even more if such a situation arrived again.

By the turn I have 70% of the effective stack in.

But that flop was as ugly as it gets with AA. I still made him call off virtually his whole stack drawing but I just wonder if one should employ some variance control in situations like this. I mean I just don't know.


3x to 100x? Like IPlay said at that point just go bigger or go 50-55x is he is a whale. But like, I'm just never making this move. On any board given, my whale (fish, whatever) can have any pieces of a wet board and if you want to play for your stack and gamble, thats fine. I just dont think its profitable, almost ever, being over 600BB deep. Its just not logical to me.

Good luck!
 
Thinker_145

Thinker_145

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3x to 100x? Like IPlay said at that point just go bigger or go 50-55x is he is a whale. But like, I'm just never making this move. On any board given, my whale (fish, whatever) can have any pieces of a wet board and if you want to play for your stack and gamble, thats fine. I just dont think its profitable, almost ever, being over 600BB deep. Its just not logical to me.

Good luck!

But I got called no? There is no hand in poker that can make a profitable call pre against AA face up if you raise 20% of your stack so not sure what you mean by this not being "profitable".

We are 500BB deep effective. I build my entire stack from this guy with worse hands doing exactly what I did here. The other regs followed my lead but this guy continued to get lucky hand after hand. So when I saw him getting to 500BB I was literally waiting for AA and not even sure I would take this line with KK.

EV wise there is no such thing as too much raise with AA as long as we get called.

But emotions are an important part of the game and that's what I am left wondering if one should always look at EV. On some other day I'll have the biggest stack anyone's probably ever had at 20NL after this hand. Now that I am recovering I am feeling less bad about this hand.
 
IPlay

IPlay

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If he shows up with A6o here there isn't much to say about this hand and the only way to misplay this hand is to NOT GII at some point. With that said I just think we could have planned this hand out a little bit better. I think the 65bb option will be the most optimal and will ensure he is never folding pre and if he was never folding anyway we should make it ~140bb to make it a smaller jam on the flop. 65bb also allows us the option to fold on terrible turn cards. Like I said though, you can't butcher this hand but the concept is still important to think about when playing this deep against someone you want to GII with 500bbs and a pair.

If you want to raise pre and GII on flop make it ~140bb pre
If you want to raise pre and GII on turn make it ~65bb pre
If you want to raise pre and GII on river make it ~35bb pre

AP though flop is either a jam or 1/3rd pot bet looking to GII on turn. This wet of a flop I jam and on dry flops I bet 1/3rd flop, jam every turn.
 
Thinker_145

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If he shows up with A6o here there isn't much to say about this hand and the only way to misplay this hand is to NOT GII at some point. With that said I just think we could have planned this hand out a little bit better. I think the 65bb option will be the most optimal and will ensure he is never folding pre and if he was never folding anyway we should make it ~140bb to make it a smaller jam on the flop. 65bb also allows us the option to fold on terrible turn cards. Like I said though, you can't butcher this hand but the concept is still important to think about when playing this deep against someone you want to GII with 500bbs and a pair.

If you want to raise pre and GII on flop make it ~140bb pre
If you want to raise pre and GII on turn make it ~65bb pre
If you want to raise pre and GII on river make it ~35bb pre

AP though flop is either a jam or 1/3rd pot bet looking to GII on turn. This wet of a flop I jam and on dry flops I bet 1/3rd flop, jam every turn.
Yes this is a good analysis and I think you are right. My thinking in these spots has generally been to raise enough pre that folding is not a question I'll have to ponder post flop. Obviously I am only talking about situations where I know there is a high chance of getting called.

My all in EV will not remember this hand which goes to show how skewed that number can be. This hand will have a material impact on even a very big sample of hands.
 
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