€20 NLHE 6-max: Would you value bet this river?

Sorry if I am making too many threads I just find the input here invaluable to my learning.

Anyways on to the hand,

iPoker - €0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 118.3 BB (VPIP: 33.64, PFR: 26.17, 3Bet Preflop: 12.82, hands: 111)
CO: 115.75 BB (VPIP: 75.14, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 5.29, Hands: 368)
Hero (BTN): 104.3 BB
SB: 63 BB (VPIP: 25.20, PFR: 21.19, 3Bet Preflop: 9.13, Hands: 1,196)
BB: 66.05 BB (VPIP: 17.97, PFR: 14.37, 3Bet Preflop: 6.82, Hands: 739)
UTG: 65 BB (VPIP: 18.52, PFR: 9.63, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 136)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q:club: Q:heart:

UTG raises to 2 BB, MP raises to 9 BB, fold, Hero calls 9 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (21.5 BB, 2 players) 9:spade: 4:spade: 4:diamond:
MP bets 15.05 BB, Hero calls 15.05 BB

Turn: (51.6 BB, 2 players) A:club:
MP checks, Hero checks

River: (51.6 BB, 2 players) 6:spade:
MP checks, Hero ?

So?

Thin value spot

I think you have the best hand, but I don't think much is calling anyway. Maybe value bet a 1/3rd pot bet on river. I would probably cold 4 bet pre against someone 3 betting almost 13% though.

IPlay said:

I think you have the best hand, but I don't think much is calling anyway. Maybe value bet a 1/3rd pot bet on river. I would probably cold 4 bet pre against someone 3 betting almost 13% though.

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Too small sample in my opinion to really take his 3 bet% that seriously.

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Yeah 4bet against this opponent could be optimal but 111 hands really isn't big enough sample really so got to becareful. Our villain may open a lot but 3bet quite tight but has been getting a lot of hands perhaps?


But one question I wouldn't mind asking though is what if we get played back at? We just assume our player has the best hand? Do we allow ourselves to get bluffed off?

I'm assuming against weaker players they are more likely to do more calling mistakes.

but what about a decent reg.

Ya 100 hands really isn't a good sample for 3 bet stats. I need minimum 500 before applying GTO strategy. I am IP with QQ so its alright just to call.

Ya that's why I am not a fan of thin bet here if we make a proper bet and get played back at its safe to assume we are beat.

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But relooking at this hand though it looks like he is afraid of the Ace. If he had a strong Ace we'd be hearing from him since there is flush draws

It does look like he has JJ or TT or some bs broadway hand that failed because if he had the A he would've bet the turn because of the flush draw and we did flat his 3bet pre.

I'd check behind here. He is pretty wide so it is a potential thin value spot but as was pointed out nothing worse than our hand is calling much. He could still have a weaker ace here like AJ AQ and not want to bloat the pot. These are just as likely as JJ or TT. In fact he could be looking to crai with an unlikely nut flush.
Our not betting the A on the turn in position does rather cap us to TT-KK methinks, so he may be looking to bluff catch.

It's funny, but you have to watch players. I could see him trying to trap here or even thinking his Aces are bad and you have a 4. He also could have bet a spade draw on the flop and is hoping you'll bluff or value bet something.

You did just flat and you're not showing your stats so I don't know how you're playing, which could play into this. If you tend to play Aggro he might be waiting for you to bet.

Thinker_145 said:

Too small sample in my opinion to really take his 3 bet% that seriously.

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True. Like other people said, maybe it is too thin because you open yourself up to be played back at and you don't have enough hands to know about his river play.

He could also have an Ax sooted type of hand here that checked turn for pot control, but would he check river to play it as a bluff catcher?

I bet here with K9, so I guess I'm a fish...

Well you can bet a 9 but what worse calls and unless you bet big in effect turning 9x into a bluff what better folds? QQ is still calling most bets on the end. A pair of 99 is a bluff catcher here is it not? (Not many hands with a 9 are three betting pre.
The fact that he checks the turn indicates to me he has showdown value. As he 3bet a fairly tight player who was under the gun JJ TT seem most likely or even an unlikely KK. Ace with a small kicker doesn't fit preflop.
So maybe there is room for a thin value bet here.

What did he have then?

I bet 60% of the pot and he called with KK.

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You need to be 51% against his calling range to value bet right? I'd say most poker players win way over 50% of their showdowns when they bet this river. Your opponent's range is so weak, it's pretty hard to value-cut yourself.

Yes I thought he would bet KK in the end and check TT/JJ. I never put him on a weak Ax hand as he 3 bet UTG with 4 players left to act.

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c9h13no3 said:

I bet here with K9, so I guess I'm a fish...

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Yeah that wouldn't be very +EV. When he checks the A it takes a lot of air out of his range since air would barrel that perfect card. He is unlikely to have a pocket pair under a 9 since he 3bet an UTG open. So what are you value betting against? K high? Maybe you were leveling and got me idk.

Also, its a fine bet, you just ran into the top of his check/calling range.