Originally Posted by JOEBOB69
You don't like betting the turn?? Shouldn't be a lot of Kx's in villains range soooo...I bet the turn for value vs 66,77,8x,99,TT,st8 draws,flush draws.
Yeah, I thought about betting the turn as well, and actually posed the question to the Skype chat group. I think Jurn & Arran both wanted to bet the turn.
I personally am kinda torn, and I haven't played NLHE in a long time, aside from 1/2 live. So I wasn't super confident in any of my answers. But here's some random reasons to bet the turn/not bet the turn.
1) Betting the turn likely gets a good number of folds from underpairs (8x, 99-QQ). Its the same reason we bet this turn when we have air, because we think we can get those hands to fold. Now in a 3-bet pot, this applies less. But I think we maybe get more calls if we wait for the river to vbet.
2) Betting the turn keeps villain from drawing out on us. But I don't think there's a lot of flush draws in villain's range (3-bet pot and all). The only real draws villain had hit on the turn. Every hand from here on out (except flush draws) have 2 or 3 outs against us.
3) Checking the turn keeps the pot smaller. If the turn checks through, it allows me to keep the pot limited to 2 bets postflop. And it forces villain to barrel twice (or bluff/raise) if they have air/something they want to turn into a bluff. Plus, those smaller pairs can check back, and they don't face the possibility of an big pot like they do if we bet the turn.
So yeah, I don't think that solves anything.
FWIW, when villain raises the river, I'd put his range as something like AK/99 with some discounted AA & KK, and maybe a broken AJs flush draw or something once in a while.
IMO this hand has a lot of close decisions after the flop, and I'm not sure it matters much what you do. I can see a lot of merit to many lines.