$20 NLHE 6-max: Villain leads out the turn and calls a raise - range?

slycbnew

slycbnew

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$20 NL HE 6-max: Villain leads out the turn and calls a raise - range?

Villain is new to the table, I have no history on him.

Checking behind on the flop, dumb?

What's SB's range on the turn call? Am I value betting the river?

Stacks:
* BTN with $29.55
* SB with $25.55
* BB with $26.70
* HERO with $51.35
* MP with $4.10

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
Site: pokerstars
* * Dealt to UTG:A♣ A♥
* * Sklansky group 1
Preflop:
* * Hero raises $0.75 to $1
* * 2 players fold.
* * SB calls [$0.90]
* * BB calls [$0.75]
* * Total folds this street: 2
* * Potsize: $3
Flop: 6♣ 3♥ A♠
* * SB: checks
* * BB: checks
* * Hero: checks
* * Potsize: $3
Turn: 4♣
* * SB bets [$2]
* * 1 players fold.
* * Hero raises $3.30 to $5.30
* * SB calls [$3.30]
* * Total folds this street: 1
* * Potsize: $13.6
River: 7♦
* * SB: checks
* * Hero: ???
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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Checking back the flop is fine, but so is betting out. At these more passive stakes, I'd probably go ahead & bet it, but there's really not a big advantage to either choice. But with my aggressive image & playing style, I get peeled by all sorts of middle pair/gutshot/KQ that just doesn't believe you junk, so I usually just go ahead & bet out.

You need to raise the turn much larger. A potsized raise is to $9, and you barely got half that size. This leaves you in awkward spots where you have to overbet the river to get all the money in, plus it gives villain odds to draw.

There's definitely room for a value bet on the river as well. Villain has $19.25 left behind, and I'd prolly bet $9. But if you had raised to $9 on the turn, villain would have $15 behind a $21 pot, so you'd have an easy shove for value.

As far his range for a turn call, who knows. He's an unknown at $25NL, so its pretty friggin' huge, and probably contains lots of mid-pair + gutshot hands, maybe some poorly played sets/2-pair, and of course some aces.
 
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slycbnew

slycbnew

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You need to raise the turn much larger. A potsized raise is to $9, and you barely got half that size. This leaves you in awkward spots where you have to overbet the river to get all the money in, plus it gives villain odds to draw. Pot on the turn is $3 plus $2 (after SB bet) = $5? Or am I misunderstanding?

There's definitely room for a value bet on the river as well. Villain has $19.25 left behind, and I'd prolly bet $9. But if you had raised to $9 on the turn, villain would have $15 behind a $21 pot, so you'd have an easy shove for value.

As far his range for a turn call, who knows. He's an unknown at $25NL, so its pretty friggin' huge, and probably contains lots of mid-pair + gutshot hands, maybe some poorly played sets/2-pair, and of course some aces. Cool, definitely value betting the river because he's got a huge range, makes sense - need to figure out how to get his whole stack with the size of my turn bet, also makes sense
^^^
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Pot on the turn is $3 plus $2 (after SB bet) = $5? Or am I misunderstanding?
Think of it this way: A potsized raise gives him 2:1 to call. If you bet a pot-sized bet, and the pot is 3$, it costs villain 3$ to win 6$. The same goes for a raise.

So here, to give villain 2:1 odds, we have to raise to $9. That way, he has to put $7 in to win $14 (9+2+3). 14/7 = 2, thus 2:1.

Your $5.30 raise makes him call $3.30 to win $10.30, or 3.12:1. If he has an open-ended straight draw (5x) and he can win an additional $7-8 when he hits, then you've just allowed him to make a very profitable play against you by raising small.

So the moral of this story is to raise big. You've already blown your slow-play cover by raising the turn, so why not raise to an amount that maximizes his mistake (calling your raise) and minimizes the amount of money that you have left behind. And in this situation, the less money you have behind on the river, the better (because its less $ draws get paid off when they hit, and its harder for villain to fold his hand if he's got like A4 or 66 since he's more committed).
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

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Think of it this way: A potsized raise gives him 2:1 to call. If you bet a pot-sized bet, and the pot is 3$, it costs villain 3$ to win 6$. The same goes for a raise.

So here, to give villain 2:1 odds, we have to raise to $9. That way, he has to put $7 in to win $14 (9+2+3). 14/7 = 2, thus 2:1.

Your $5.30 raise makes him call $3.30 to win $10.30, or 3.12:1. If he has an open-ended straight draw (5x) and he can win an additional $7-8 when he hits, then you've just allowed him to make a very profitable play against you by raising small.

So the moral of this story is to raise big. You've already blown your slow-play cover by raising the turn, so why not raise to an amount that maximizes his mistake (calling your raise) and minimizes the amount of money that you have left behind. And in this situation, the less money you have behind on the river, the better (because its less $ draws get paid off when they hit, and its harder for villain to fold his hand if he's got like A4 or 66 since he's more committed).

Now I understand why my bet sizes are always too small, thanks...
 
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