€20 NLHE 6-max: Unexpected river shove, call or fold

C

ComplexPlaya

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€20 NL HE 6-max: Unexpected river shove, call or fold

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 24/10/1.6

No reads on villain other than his stats

€0.10/€0.20 No Limit Holdem
Entraction
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG mdr9 (€22.17)
UTG+1 GaiusBonus (€21.95)
CO ToToha23 (€20)
BTN Neolay (€23.14)
SB XALLX (€8.62)
BB Hero (€20.75)

Pre-Flop: (€0.30, 6 players) Hero is BB K:heart: 10:heart:
1 fold, GaiusBonus raises to €0.57, 2 folds, XALLX calls €0.47, Hero calls €0.37

Flop: J:diamond: Q:spade: K:spade: (€1.71, 3 players)
XALLX checks, Hero bets €1.28, GaiusBonus folds, XALLX raises to €2.56, Hero calls €1.28

Turn: 6:diamond: (€6.83, 2 players)
XALLX checks, Hero checks

River: 3:diamond: (€6.83, 2 players)
XALLX goes all-in €5.49, Hero ????
 
polakpoker4

polakpoker4

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I'm assuming you're calling preflop because you feel like XALLX is a fish, otherwise it's a slightly marginal call IMO. Youre probably dominated a lot of the timevs UTG+1 range and SB isnt deep enough for you to be profitably stacking off if you flop a flush/straight and he makes a hand.

On the flop, I don't like the donk very much because it hits the PFR's range super hard and you're only building a pot with a hand that can win at showdown but you don't wanna play for stacks with. I'd probably c/c flop, c/c turn, c/f river if PFR bets out every time (unless you hit your straight). As played, I think its gonna be a flush draw quite a bit and I'd probably look him up here, especially if he's fishy.
 
Wes747

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You have to work on your donk betting. Even if your hand is best here, you shouldn't lead out on the flop. IMO there aren't really any situations (well, maybe a few depending on villan reads) in which you should lead out on the flop if you weren't the pre flop raiser.

10Ks is an easy 3bet/fold preflop when in the blinds. I'm not really a 6max player, but usually when someone leads out from UTG+1 i respect their raise and fold my 10Ks here.

As played I call and just shrug it off when villan shows up with a random flush like Q9. If I was villan I would have shoved here with almost any hand. You haven't made any agressive moves in this pot and it looks like you're on straight draw or have a weak Q/J.
 
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Fold or 3bet preflop

24/10/1.6 probably has something if he c/r on the flop.
He probably also has more than TPBK if he's shoving the river.

Fold preflop
fold flop
check the turn
fold river
 
polakpoker4

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Fold or 3bet preflop

24/10/1.6 probably has something if he c/r on the flop.
He probably also has more than TPBK if he's shoving the river.

Fold preflop
fold flop
check the turn
fold river


You have too much equity to fold the flop IMO plus villain it pretty fishy so he could be doing this w/ almost anything, including hands that we beat. I agree with the check on the turn, but I don't think folding the river is that great because I think villain will shove turn with his value hands. We've shown interest in the pot so there's no reason for villain not to value shove on such a drawy board.
 
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You have too much equity to fold the flop IMO plus villain it pretty fishy so he could be doing this w/ almost anything, including hands that we beat. I agree with the check on the turn, but I don't think folding the river is that great because I think villain will shove turn with his value hands. We've shown interest in the pot so there's no reason for villain not to value shove on such a drawy board.

Why are you saying villain is fishy?

He said that he had no real reads on the guy and we got check raised in a hand where we can't beat much. Given no real reads we have a hand that is not that great. If we want to play then let's shove and add some fold equity on the flop since we have outs

What kinds of hands is this villain check raising us with? He has an AF of 1.6. Not exactly an aggressive player.

I feel like it's bad spot with no definitive plan at any point.

We call in the BB, donk with TP and get raised by a nitty lookin guy, and then what we call hoping to see showdown cheap?

I just don't know what he's shoving with (which is less than the pot I guess) that we beat. Just air?
 
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ComplexPlaya

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Ok, so besides the marginal call in the blinds which I sometimes (albeit much less than before thx in part to this forum) still do, I played the hand too timidly. Looking again I guess my actions did look pretty week.

Do you think that kind of betting pattern is good for inducing bluffs though, or not really? (too common it seems, everybody that wants to trap does this cbet flop, check turn - mostly OOP but IP as well)

Wes47 said I shouldn't lead out on the flop, the reason for that was most people don't cbet multi-way pots. And if they do they can shut down if they get action, or usually fold to check/raises.
 
polakpoker4

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Why are you saying villain is fishy?

I'm making a bit of an assumption (villain is playing with odd stack size/makes min c/r on super drawy board). More often than not, he's going to be fishy, especially at 20NL.

Villain almost never has AK, KK, QQ, or JJ. The only thing we lose to is KQ/QJ and AT/T9. I think villain will min c/r KT/QT/JT, spades and sometimes Tx. Against this type of range, we have 46% equity, so I feel like we just can't fold for the price that we're getting on the flop. I think it's less likely villain has a monster after checking the turn. I think a lot of villain at micros will check back a missed flush draw on the turn and will shove river. I think villain would be somewhat worried about a flush draw and would shove all strong made hands on the turn.
 
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I guess I'm pretty much okay with all that I'm just thinking things like 2 pair that beat us are in there too at least on the river. And with only a single pair we're not in super great shape. I do agree that there are few real major monster hands in his range pretty much it AT and T9. But if he had 2 pair he may have checked the turn thinking WE had the monster and when we check behind we pretty much turn our hand face up- meaning some kind of a draw. So when he shoves the only hands we are beating are K9 and busted draws. I don't see a guy with that agreasion level shoving his busted draws. But two pair kinds of hands fit very well, IMO.

Tough spot to be in, but the pre-flop call is what put us here.

Complex playa since most people are not cbetting this flop why not just check?you may get a free card, which is ok, you maintain a more controlable pot and will let some hands bluff.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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I guess I'm pretty much okay with all that I'm just thinking things like 2 pair that beat us are in there too at least on the river. And with only a single pair we're not in super great shape. I do agree that there are few real major monster hands in his range pretty much it AT and T9. But if he had 2 pair he may have checked the turn thinking WE had the monster and when we check behind we pretty much turn our hand face up- meaning some kind of a draw. So when he shoves the only hands we are beating are K9 and busted draws. I don't see a guy with that agreasion level shoving his busted draws. But two pair kinds of hands fit very well, IMO.

Tough spot to be in, but the pre-flop call is what put us here.

Complex playa since most people are not cbetting this flop why not just check?you may get a free card, which is ok, you maintain a more controlable pot and will let some hands bluff.

Because I didn't want to make it a free ride for him in case he was flush drawing or if he had mid pair, AQ or something.

But yes I guess my line was weakest, either c/c or more agressively bet big / shove turn when the rag hit.

Why is everyone saying I shouldn't have played KT s in BB tho, to a raise from SB? I had position to something that may very well be a steal.

Or with this marginal hand it's better to 3-bet or fold even when you have position to what may be a steal? (although his steal % was low I have to admit, 25%)
 
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Because the bet was from UTG+1 at least according to your hand history. So while calling a raise from the SB with KTs it is pretty well okay, when UTG+1 raises there is no reason to call in a multiway pot with a hand that ends up getting outkicked very often when you hit TP.

The raise was from the SB- he's shortstacked so if you really want to isolate then shove preflop but you really should not be calling a 3bet with KT. The thing is with close to 10% of your stack in there on the flop you end up being pretty comitted with a hand you don't want to be really comitted with.
 
ljove

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fold you have only one pair
He is not aggressive player he got something
 
dg1267

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As played, I say call. He could show up here with QQ, JJ, TT a lot of times and is only shoving knowing you are weak from your line.

Otherwise, I would fold this pre-flop. It is a hand that you can get very attached to (as you can see) and you just never know if you are good or not. Too easy to just fold it and wait for a better spot.
 
F Paulsson

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Deleted my previous post in case someone had time to read it, because I had the action wrong. When he minraises the flop and then checks the turn, he's typically either playing a big hand very strangely or he's on a draw and taking a free card. Big hands are rare, big hands played strangely are even more rare. So I call, and expect to see AT some of the time, but JT/QT/AQ/T8o/Ax whatever well more than the requisite 30% of the time or whatever it comes out to.
 
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Deleted my previous post in case someone had time to read it, because I had the action wrong. When he minraises the flop and then checks the turn, he's typically either playing a big hand very strangely or he's on a draw and taking a free card. Big hands are rare, big hands played strangely are even more rare. So I call, and expect to see AT some of the time, but JT/QT/AQ/T8o/Ax whatever well more than the requisite 30% of the time or whatever it comes out to.

You don't think that QJ/KJ plays that way? Not saying they do, but they are strongish hands but not "big" exactly since there are a lot that beat you in that spot. I could see a check on the turn from him expecting a bet from the hero. I'm just thinking that with a not too aggressive player a raise on the flop and shove on the turn is pretty aggressive for a worse K and middle pair kinds of stuff.

Seems like there is a big list of hands that beat us and and not all of them play super aggressive with a possible made straight on the board.
 
F Paulsson

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Seems like there is a big list of hands that beat us and and not all of them play super aggressive with a possible made straight on the board.
But he checkraised the flop, with a possible straight on the board. Then he checked the turn with a possible straight on the board, and finally shoved the river with a possible straight on the board. I'm not saying he can't have QJ or KJ or a set, I'm just saying that it's a really weird line, and weird lines by definition reduce the probability of those hands. So if there are 18 combos of two-pair hands and 5 combos of sets, how often would the average opponent play those hands that way? It's most definitely a number smaller than 50%. I'm guessing it's closer to 10-15% of people who would play those hands in that specific manner. Differently put, I think he's 4-5 times more likely to have ace-ten than all of those hands put together.

Of course, the same argument can be said for all other hands he could have; how often would he really do this with T8? But the point is that the sum of all weirdly played Tx and Ax hands (and underpairs and K9 and 75s that is spazzing out and...) is really big, so even if he does it even really, really rarely, it's likely still often enough for us to call.
 
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Yeah, I guess there isn't really any hand that makes sense for him to have here given the way its played out.

My only thought on the two pair kinds of hands was that they may check raise the flop to shutdown the draws but when we flat it puts him in a weird spot so he checks the turn on the chance we have a better 2pair/set/bottom straight. When we check behind the turn it helps to define our range as more close to a draw or a weak pair. And the river might be shoving to get a call from single pair hands that could check behind on the river since all the draws except the backdoor flush miss- but maybe I'm over thinking this.

Of course its all conjecture, but you're right (of course) that the number of draws/combo draws that have wiffed and shove here is probably as, or more, likely than a bigger hand than ours is that's playing bizarrely.
 
F Paulsson

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I'm having a really hard time phrasing myself here, for whatever reason (maybe it's because I haven't had my morning coffee yet) but:

Your line of thinking isn't bad at all. I thought it myself. The problem with it is that it isn't that it's wrong, but that it isn't complete; you should most definitely consider the possibility that this is a strong hand that's outplaying us. But you must also give that risk a probability, and versus an unknown at these stakes, the principle of "if his line doesn't make sense, he's probably bluffing" holds true very often.
 
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