€20 NLHE 6-max: Turned TPTK on dry board, facing aggression

C

ComplexPlaya

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 73/47/2

115 hands on villain. I find this to be a tough spot, because

a) Most people even the loosest players fold to a cbet on a paired dry flop like that, unless they have trips / second pair / some pocket pair and
b) shoving when the overcard comes screams he has a 9.

I do need to win only more than 25% of the time though, am I good here that amount do you think if I call ?

Hero (UTG): €26.06
CO: €79.08
BTN: €19.70
SB: €10.82
BB: €29.45

SB posts SB €0.10, BB posts BB €0.20

Pre Flop: (€0.30) Hero has Q:diamond: A:club:

Hero raises to €0.70, fold, fold, SB calls €0.60, BB calls €0.50

Flop: (€2.10, 3 players) 3:club: 9:diamond: 9:heart:
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets €1.20, SB calls €1.20, fold

Turn: (€4.50, 2 players) Q:spade:
SB checks, Hero bets €3.37, SB raises to €8.92 and is all-in, ???
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Given how crazy villain is I think there`s going to be more than 9x in his range for sure.

I call, not ecstatic about it but meh. We`re getting a great price, sometimes he does spazz with random PPs here, sometimes he turned a Q, and sometimes he somehow gets to the turn with a draw. Point is I do see a lot more than 9x here based on my personal experience.
 
Pascal-lf

Pascal-lf

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Given stack sizes when that turn hits I think you have to b/c it off. ChuckTs sums it up pretty well.
 
C

ComplexPlaya

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Thx guys. I actually folded , I don't think I've seen too much non-9x hands here but oh well. Probably should have called thinking Qx might have peeled something. I'm sure he still has 9x, 33 most times but maybe not 75%
 
Sysvr4

Sysvr4

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Adding to what others said, with an opponent this loose, this is not uncommonly KQ / QJ / QT in additional pocket pairs. May also be chopping with AQ, but it's hard to say without knowing his PF 3bet tendencies. This is also a particularly common (bad) line with TT-JJ as well, IME.

In short, you have to call, but you don't have to like it. :)
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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2.0 AF is crazy aggressive for someone with a VPIP above 60%. I'm never folding.
 
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