€20 NLHE 6-max: TPTK facing river shove?

Thinker_145

Thinker_145

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iPoker - €0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 116.9 BB (VPIP: 19.23, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, hands: 52)
BTN: 75 BB (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 46.67, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 31)
SB: 131.4 BB (VPIP: 20.40, PFR: 15.13, 3Bet Preflop: 4.62, Hands: 2,562)
Hero (BB): 102.5 BB
UTG: 86.5 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
MP: 112.05 BB (VPIP: 19.45, PFR: 13.14, 3Bet Preflop: 3.98, Hands: 6,648)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:spade: Q:heart:

UTG calls 1 BB, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB, UTG calls 2 BB

Flop: (9.5 BB, 3 players) 4:club: 2:heart: Q:club:
Hero bets 7.6 BB, UTG calls 7.6 BB, MP raises to 19 BB, Hero calls 11.4 BB, UTG calls 11.4 BB

Turn: (66.5 BB, 3 players) 4:spade:
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP bets 24 BB, Hero calls 24 BB, UTG calls 24 BB

River: (138.5 BB, 3 players) 6:heart:
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP bets 59 BB, Hero ?

He doesn't have KK or AA I know that much the 2 bet pre would have been bigger I have a read on this, now you might say why didn't I 3 bet knowing that? Well ya I know I could but I didn't and we are here now. So that really leaves us with 22 and 44. Now I would think a 19/13 player would generally have limped back pre with those hands? Don't have a read about this. Would he ever have played AQ like this?
 
IPlay

IPlay

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I doubt he bets 1/3rd pot with a bluff on turn and he bets turn and shoves river into two callers. AQ is toast and should be folded on turn after UTG calls flop raise.
 
Trabendo_daze

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Why can't villain have AA or KK here? He raised preflop a normal amount. That's all the information we have right? Sounds like a pretty normal thing for AA or KK to do. Also let's add the one combo of QQ into his range. I doubt MP is double barrel bluffing into two players here twice. It would just be way too ambitious. UTG cold calling is either hella strong or club draw. In any case, given the action I think we can fold turn (and definitely river). I'm giving him QQ+ here a lot of the time and probably not 44 or 22 given his low PFR.
 
Thinker_145

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Why can't villain have AA or KK here? He raised preflop a normal amount. That's all the information we have right? Sounds like a pretty normal thing for AA or KK to do. Also let's add the one combo of QQ into his range. I doubt MP is double barrel bluffing into two players here twice. It would just be way too ambitious. UTG cold calling is either hella strong or club draw. In any case, given the action I think we can fold turn (and definitely river). I'm giving him QQ+ here a lot of the time and probably not 44 or 22 given his low PFR.
Because from past experience I know he would have made a bigger 2 bet vs limper with AA/KK.
 
Trabendo_daze

Trabendo_daze

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Oh alright I mean you do have a bunch of hands with him. Anyways so he could have AQ or even KQ here but I really think he would slow down with two callers. Once he bets the river I'm pretty scared. I don't know if he would value bet AQ here. What is he trying to get to call? Tough one here then.
 
Figaroo2

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Yeah this is a bit of an odd hand but we made our own bed here by not 3 betting pre. It is the best play in terms of getting info in this spot. Maybe a flat keeps the limper in.
As a result we are now guessing for lack of information. The flop raise and small bets smell strong. He's certainly fishing for calls on both the turn and river.
I would expect to see a set of 2s or even quad 4s here most of the time. It is possible he also has AQ the board is difficult to connect with and AQ doesn't have much to fear here, you are probably chopping at best so folding on the end seems appropriate.
22 44 and AQ all fit pre flop better than a premium overpair , I might call if I knew he was aggressive enough to play flush draws this way but I'd only call with a specific note or read on that.
 
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MinhANguyen

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I don't like the donk. Prefer check-call. The board isn't that wet, and the PFR is going to c-bet a decent amount of his range here since we probably both missed the flop. We don't want to fold out his bluffs.

It's possible he has AQ here and thinks you're donking a draw, but I don't think he raises flop with it into two other people. Tbh people just don't bluff multi-way near enough, so I probably muck flop as played. We're probably flopped dead, drawing super thin, or barely ahead 10% of the time.

AQo flat pre is better than 3-betting here imo. He's a nit and also opening from MP. Also we get UTG fish to come along. We're going to get 4-bet a decent amount of the time, and we are way behind his continuing range. We can't 3-bet for value, and turning AQo into a bluff when we can't fold any better hands is meh. I'd rather 3-bet AA/KK/AK/QQ and if we want a balanced range, then some Axs/suited connectors.
 
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IPlay

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+1 with hating the donk bet. It really makes us lost in the hand because villain is going to be raising the donk with a very wide range. This board is dry enough we can just x/call pretty happily.
 
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