$20 NLHE 6-max: Top two facing a turn shove for 130BB ?

R

razzor94

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poker stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (SB): $30.35 (189.7 bb)
BB: $24.39 (152.4 bb)
UTG: $17.83 (111.4 bb)
MP: $34.32 (214.5 bb)
CO: $18.04 (112.8 bb)
BTN: $28.08 (175.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A
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J
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2 folds, CO raises to $0.40, BTN folds, Hero raises to $1.36, BB calls $1.20, CO folds

Flop: ($3.12) J
club4.gif
A
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3
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(2 players)
Hero bets $1.61, BB calls $1.61

Turn: ($6.34) T
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(2 players)
Hero bets $4.80, BB raises to $20.45, Hero raises to $27.38, BB calls $0.97

River: ($49.18) 4
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(2 players)

Results: $49.18 pot ($1.50 rake)
Final Board: J
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A
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3
club4.gif
T
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4
spade4.gif


I have no idea what to do in this spot. With his sizing i guess he represents mostly the nuts (even though i cant see many players playing the nuts this way) and sometimes a set (but unless he somehow called with TT on the flop i cant see any other hands given that i block JJ and AA and does he ever play AA this way). I couldnt see myself folding here but maybe i should ? I have no info on him but maybe its note worthy that he almost instantly showed the turn.
 
t1riel

t1riel

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With no information on your opponent, I might have folded after the reraise on the turn. Could A, 10 be possible here? Maybe. K, Q would seem like a very loose call. Either eay, I might let it go after the reraise on the turn.
 
A

AspiringPlr

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folding AQ here would be pretty unbalanced beccause its near the top of your range. he could do that with some weaker 2pairs or gutshots and nutted flush draws. Actuall f*ck this. I'm gonna count.
So in EndOfAction spots you need to ask yourself 2 questions:
1) How much equity do i need
2) How much equity do i have

1. RE = ATC/(ATC + TP)
RE = Required Equity
ATC = amount ot call
TP = Total pot
roughly you need 32% here. Now to the next question
2. i assume his range looks like this unless you have a read that he don't 4bets KK, AA or AK pre. Also i assume that on micro stakes a lot of guys pass the opportunity to raise 33 or JJ here on the flop in order to trap opponent.
JJ-TT,33,AJs-ATs,KQs,KcJc,KcTc,AJo-ATo,KQo
Against this range you have 30.6% equity which is close but not enough to call. Making call here would not be the biggest mistake but its still slighty -EV. But if you think that he will raise 33 on the flop then exluding this hand already makes your EV breakeven. Still very close spot. I think in game i will intuitively make a call
 
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braveslice

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For me even after giving this hand quite much though, it’s too hard to crack at all. So my instinct is to say that this hand is not important to study too much because it can go easily both ways.

Given he should not have air here, it comes down to if he value bets worse. Normally in this spot villain usually have bluff hands too and we still bonder between callings and folding, thus when villain’s range is only for value, this should be fold mostly? Realistically he still has some draws, maybe like KTcc, KJhh but he really needs to be aggressive to go to that line against seemingly obvious strong A.

@t1 and @Plr both are saying it’s close.

@razzor94 what is your WTSD and W$SD?
 
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razzor94

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folding AQ here would be pretty unbalanced beccause its near the top of your range. he could do that with some weaker 2pairs or gutshots and nutted flush draws. Actuall f*ck this. I'm gonna count.
So in EndOfAction spots you need to ask yourself 2 questions:
1) How much equity do i need
2) How much equity do i have

1. RE = ATC/(ATC + TP)
RE = Required Equity
ATC = amount ot call
TP = Total pot
roughly you need 32% here. Now to the next question
2. i assume his range looks like this unless you have a read that he don't 4bets KK, AA or AK pre. Also i assume that on micro stakes a lot of guys pass the opportunity to raise 33 or JJ here on the flop in order to trap opponent.
JJ-TT,33,AJs-ATs,KQs,KcJc,KcTc,AJo-ATo,KQo
Against this range you have 30.6% equity which is close but not enough to call. Making call here would not be the biggest mistake but its still slighty -EV. But if you think that he will raise 33 on the flop then exluding this hand already makes your EV breakeven. Still very close spot. I think in game i will intuitively make a call

Folding AQ would be much easier than AJ. Becouse i am in the SB AQ is in the top of my range pre flop but on the turn i could have straights, sets and many 2 pair combos so folding TPSK is going to be easy given his raise size.
Nonetheless i like the math part of thinking. At the time i was trying to figure out the range he could do this with but completely forgot to roughly estimate the equity. Even if i did i would still make this call. Just becouse i am at the top of my range here. JT and AT would probably be a fold but with top two i think i am folding too much if i fold here.
 
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razzor94

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For me even after giving this hand quite much though, it’s too hard to crack at all. So my instinct is to say that this hand is not important to study too much because it can go easily both ways.

Given he should not have air here, it comes down to if he value bets worse. Normally in this spot villain usually have bluff hands too and we still bonder between callings and folding, thus when villain’s range is only for value, this should be fold mostly? Realistically he still has some draws, maybe like KTcc, KJhh but he really needs to be aggressive to go to that line against seemingly obvious strong A.

@t1 and @Plr both are saying it’s close.

@razzor94 what is your WTSD and W$SD?

He should be doing this with value hands but the shove on the turn doesnt make any sense. If i am folding here 2 pair and he has the nuts he is losing so much on the river if he is pushing me of of my hand here.
If he had a FD wouldnt it be cheaper to raise on the flop ? I could see a set doing this if he was afraid of some bad river cards that might slow down the action but i block AA and JJ and TT would be a really loose call on the flop.
Its such a sick like to take from him.
My WTSD is 28 and W$SD is 54 over 19k sample.
 
Figaroo2

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The only hands I would shove there are made value hands that are scared of being outdrawn or outbluffed by a flush draw arriving or the board pairing if I had KQ.
33 or KcQc or a little less likely some other suited KQ and less likely again the last combo of JJ AA
When I have top 2 and get raised on the turn its nearly always bottom set.
As you are a bit deeper than usual he will probably call the 3bet wider which brings those hands into play.
You didn't post villains stats so can't comment more than that, if he's really aggro and shoving flush draws then you have to call. If he's timid its easier to find a fold on the turn.
 
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braveslice

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I can see your point that you need to call here for balance especially if he is regularly playing against you and you don't really go to showdown that often. That is a skill I don't need yet at 10NL. If you would fold AK here, I would imagine it's profitable to shove with any kind of equity hand (I'm not going to calculate though)

I agree with FD, those I provided are made pair+FD on the turn, some, especially aggressive players go crazy with them in lower limits at least. TT would be really loose calls, but will be at least sometimes villain’s range, he would 4bet it too sometimes, as well as JJ?
 
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razzor94

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The only hands I would shove there are made value hands that are scared of being outdrawn or outbluffed by a flush draw arriving or the board pairing if I had KQ.
33 or KcQc or a little less likely some other suited KQ and less likely again the last combo of JJ AA
When I have top 2 and get raised on the turn its nearly always bottom set.
As you are a bit deeper than usual he will probably call the 3bet wider which brings those hands into play.
You didn't post villains stats so can't comment more than that, if he's really aggro and shoving flush draws then you have to call. If he's timid its easier to find a fold on the turn.

I agree with your range analysis. The problem is i had like 4 hands on him.
Yet he showed up with 99 at showdown. I guess i have to widen his showing range from now on lol.
 
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razzor94

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I can see your point that you need to call here for balance especially if he is regularly playing against you and you don't really go to showdown that often. That is a skill I don't need yet at 10NL. If you would fold AK here, I would imagine it's profitable to shove with any kind of equity hand (I'm not going to calculate though)

I agree with FD, those I provided are made pair+FD on the turn, some, especially aggressive players go crazy with them in lower limits at least. TT would be really loose calls, but will be at least sometimes villain’s range, he would 4bet it too sometimes, as well as JJ?

I dont think its going to be profitable showing 130BB to fold out AK. If he had some card blockers and BD stuff in this spot it would probably be better to raise to lets say 2.5x my bet and he would probably get the same result. If he is semi-bluffing here with his shove it has to work 64% of the time(If my calculations are right) just to break even and this board hits my range more often than his.
 
Figaroo2

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I agree with your range analysis. The problem is i had like 4 hands on him.
Yet he showed up with 99 at showdown. I guess i have to widen his showing range from now on lol.

99:eek: ...well looks like he was just being a monkey because you had so little history, glad you stacked his dumb ass.
 
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braveslice

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I dont think its going to be profitable showing 130BB to fold out AK. If he had some card blockers and BD stuff in this spot it would probably be better to raise to lets say 2.5x my bet and he would probably get the same result. If he is semi-bluffing here with his shove it has to work 64% of the time(If my calculations are right) just to break even and this board hits my range more often than his.

No comments on that, because it's a bit over my head. But if he is planning to fold strong aces he needs to shove, right? Also if he raises 2.5x you call pot is around 30 and he has around 9 left.

I had to try calculating =)
You have 52 combos of 2pairs or better, you have 12 combos AK, 12 combos AQ. Not sure if you would bet all AQ, but let say you do. You would fold 31.6%. Then given the board you have insta folds, always 10% but here probably 15% -> he would get 46.6% folds.

Let say he has equity around 20% when called
EV = EVfold+EVcallwin+EVcalllose = 0.466*11.14 + 0.534*0.2*32.56-0.534*0.8*21.42 = -0.48

So yes, it seems shoving is negative ev. Quite close though. Checking AQ sometimes would be good, maybe. Thanks for making me do it, probably very wrong but one got to start somewhere.
 
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