€20 NLHE 6-max: Top 2 pair facing river shove?

Thinker_145

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iPoker - €0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 153.55 BB (VPIP: 33.93, PFR: 23.64, 3Bet Preflop: 15.38, hands: 59)
Hero (CO): 157.7 BB
BTN: 156.9 BB (VPIP: 23.70, PFR: 15.61, 3Bet Preflop: 4.98, Hands: 8,873)
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 29.81, PFR: 24.53, 3Bet Preflop: 3.13, Hands: 275)
BB: 121.8 BB (VPIP: 20.26, PFR: 15.53, 3Bet Preflop: 2.76, Hands: 393)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:diamond: K:heart:

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, BTN raises to 8 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 5.5 BB

Flop: (17.5 BB, 2 players) 8:diamond: A:spade: K:club:
Hero bets 10.5 BB, BTN calls 10.5 BB

Turn: (38.5 BB, 2 players) J:diamond:
Hero bets 23.1 BB, BTN calls 23.1 BB

River: (84.7 BB, 2 players) 6:spade:
Hero bets 50.8 BB, BTN raises to 115 BB, Hero ?

Thoughts? I would say I am splitting at best but then again what am I losing to? He would have folded the flop with JJ most of the times.
 
TimovieMan

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There is still one combo each of AA and KK out there, and 3 combos of 88. Granted, 88 would've been a loose preflop 3-bet, but it's not unheard of.

I agree about him not having JJ here.

So we're up against a discounted 1.5 combo of 88, 1 combo of AA, 1 combo of KK and 4 combos of AK.


You probably shouldn't have bet out on the flop, gives him a chance to c-bet QQ/JJ/TT that would otherwise fold.
Since he calls your flop bet, I think you should just c/c down. This is either going to be a chop, or you're going to lose. Try to get a cheap showdown.

As played, call, and hope for a chop.
 
Thinker_145

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There is still one combo each of AA and KK out there, and 3 combos of 88. Granted, 88 would've been a loose preflop 3-bet, but it's not unheard of.

I agree about him not having JJ here.

So we're up against a discounted 1.5 combo of 88, 1 combo of AA, 1 combo of KK and 4 combos of AK.


You probably shouldn't have bet out on the flop, gives him a chance to c-bet QQ/JJ/TT that would otherwise fold.
Since he calls your flop bet, I think you should just c/c down. This is either going to be a chop, or you're going to lose. Try to get a cheap showdown.

As played, call, and hope for a chop.
I didn't wanna check raise AQ/AJ and really on that flop I don't mind getting it all in. By the river I am not quite sure anymore.

And I suppose JJ might still have stuck around as the purpose of my donk is to confuse my opponent. It's kinda unusual for me to have donked like this.

Of course I am aware I am losing to AA/KK but really after that flop the chances of being up against either are so slim we can definitely discount them for 150 BB. It's such a sick cooler if it turns out to be AA/KK.
 
ConDeck

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You probably shouldn't have bet out on the flop, gives him a chance to c-bet QQ/JJ/TT that would otherwise fold.
Since he calls your flop bet, I think you should just c/c down.

That pretty much... though see below

I didn't wanna check raise AQ/AJ and really on that flop I don't mind getting it all in. By the river I am not quite sure anymore.

There is no reason to check raise this board, it would be check call, we are way ahead or way behind and its unlikely we get AQ/AJ to stack off on the flop as when are we taking this line with worse? I think we can include AJ in villains range here some though.

As for river, villains range is:

Villains range at this point, if we include AJ, is:

AcAh,KdKs,JcJh,JcJs,JhJs,8c8h,8c8s,8h8s,AcJc,AhJh,AcKd,AcKs,AhKd,AhKs,AcJh,AcJs,AhJc,AhJs

We lose to 8 combos, we chop 4 and beat 6 combos. We have 33% equity to win and 11% to chop and are getting almost 3:1 so if we believe they can have AJ here some it is a call although I'm not happy about it.

HOWEVER

If he never has AJ, and even if we discount some 88 due to it being an unlikely 3b hand and 1 combo of JJ believing that villain folds flop with JJ 1 out of 3 times, we only have around a 20% chance to tie the pot, and we are never ahead so it is a fold for 65bb.

I wish villain had some bluffs here but there are literally none unless he has spazzed with air which seems so unlikely here.

In future check call flop, check call turn, value bet river, fold to jam.
 
Figaroo2

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Personally I'd have 4bet I dislike flatting AK and giving up both position and initiative. AK needs to be in my 4bet value range for balance as I'm moving away from accepting being oop against good players who know how to turn the screws from the button.
If you had 4bet you'd have been able to exclude the two premium pairs as more unlikely.
So you choose to flat and now are guessing a bit more.
I'm never leading out here. If he's aggressive call him down.
Con deck summarises the rest +1.
 
TimovieMan

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Personally I'd have 4bet I dislike flatting AK and giving up both position and initiative. AK needs to be in my 4bet value range for balance as I'm moving away from accepting being oop against good players who know how to turn the screws from the button.
Doesn't that set you up for a fold to a 5-bet shove?
 
ConDeck

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Doesn't that set you up for a fold to a 5-bet shove?

150bb deep we do not mind 4b folding to a 5b shove here, a 4b to 21bb should be profitable long term as villain is only shoving KK+ And we are in no way priced to call unlike in 100bb eff pots where shoves can be AQ+ JJ+.

The reason I didn't comment on 4b/flatting is because I am actually pretty indifferent. There are pros and cons to both and it depends more on individual playing style imo. Personally I would usually 4b in this spot like 60% and flat like 40%.
 
Figaroo2

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The only time I'm not 4betting is where the villain is very tight. Less than 3% 3bet and generally I'm calling 100bb off to anyone who has 5bettted or shoved on me more than once before in 200 hands or less. I've picked off three 5bet shoves recently where monkeys have shoved A2s and 99 (the latter twice).

I know people talk about keeping in their crap and dominated ranges but oop it is still difficult to convert that equity against an aggressive player. Upping the anti preflop decreases the positional advantage as the spr falls.
 
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Thinker_145

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I would have opted to 4 bet/fold QQ but really guys I don't find AK to be that difficult to play OOP.

I don't mind shoving AK for 100BB against most opponents but 150BB is a different thing.

I flopped the world here and leading out gives me the initiative, you can say I am a fan of Doyle in this regard to donk with massive hands. I mean if let's suppose I get 2 bet on the flop who is ever folding?

It's only the turn which has complicated matters here otherwise on the flop I am happily shipping 150BB.
 
ConDeck

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I would have opted to 4 bet/fold QQ but really guys I don't find AK to be that difficult to play OOP.

I don't mind shoving AK for 100BB against most opponents but 150BB is a different thing.

I flopped the world here and leading out gives me the initiative, you can say I am a fan of Doyle in this regard to donk with massive hands. I mean if let's suppose I get 2 bet on the flop who is ever folding?

It's only the turn which has complicated matters here otherwise on the flop I am happily shipping 150BB.

But what hands on the flop are GII that you beat against a solid looking reg? You fold out a lot of his range when you take this line that may give you value by checking.

I am also a fan of leading to GII, but that is going to happen so rarely here where we are good...
 
vinylspiros

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i dont understand why we are donking flop if we flatted his 3bet pre?

This alone makes us look weak enough for villain to be able to call all and any bets , since our line looks weak and induces bluffs.

just a thought.

This flop is a check raise all day long IMO. Flatting a 3bet pre and then leading on the best flop we are ever gonna see is not the best line here.
 
vinylspiros

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hes probably not folding the flop with JJ most of the times since you flat his 3bet which makes your range look alot like a medium PP or AQ or something since AK is 4betting alot of the time and also you lead out on flop which looks fishy alone which is another reason for him to float at least one street.
 
ConDeck

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This flop is a check raise all day long IMO. Flatting a 3bet pre and then leading on the best flop we are ever gonna see is not the best line here.

Same as I said above though, what hands are we expecting to continue from a solid reg when we check raise this flop that we are ahead of? AQ maybe? I can't think of any others?
 
vinylspiros

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IMO the best line is c/c flop,c/raise turn,donk GII on river if it blanks. AQ might be hero calling if the player is bad and AJ is always calling. AK is a chop and AA/KK is just unlucky .
 
vinylspiros

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Same as I said above though, what hands are we expecting to continue from a solid reg when we check raise this flop that we are ahead of? AQ maybe? I can't think of any others?


probably that . but the best line IMO is check call flop and then checkraise turn. just to protect aganst a straight and to get value from AJ,AQ. Our hand really looks like its ahead and we cant really be too worried about being heat here. If we check call turn and river completes the gutshot straight ,then we are hating how we slowplayed the hand.
 
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probably that . but the best line IMO is check call flop and then checkraise turn. just to protect aganst a straight and to get value from AJ,AQ. Our hand really looks like its ahead and we cant really be too worried about being heat here. If we check call turn and river completes the gutshot straight ,then we are hating how we slowplayed the hand.

Don't think a nitty 3-bettor has J10s/QJs in his 3-betting range. Check-raising turn overreps our hand and isolates ourselves against chops or AA/KK. I seriously doubt any competent player is barreling flop and turn with AQ/AJ and then calling a check-raise, then a jam. AQ/AJ should check flop or turn.
 
Thinker_145

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But what hands on the flop are GII that you beat against a solid looking reg? You fold out a lot of his range when you take this line that may give you value by checking.

I am also a fan of leading to GII, but that is going to happen so rarely here where we are good...
Ya that's what bothers me about top 2 pair on a board where its highly inconciebable for our opponent to have top and bottom pair. It's not as strong a hand as it may look like against solid regs you are right. But you know its tough to not get carried away in a hand like this especially when multi tabling.

However then I think it's injustice with the hand to not play it aggressively I don't know its really confusing. I guess this is the next level where I really should give more respect to some players.
 
Thinker_145

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i dont understand why we are donking flop if we flatted his 3bet pre?

This alone makes us look weak enough for villain to be able to call all and any bets , since our line looks weak and induces bluffs.

just a thought.

This flop is a check raise all day long IMO. Flatting a 3bet pre and then leading on the best flop we are ever gonna see is not the best line here.
So isn't that a fantastic thing that we make our monster hand look suspicious?
 
John A

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Any post flop agg numbers?

This is a pretty easy river fold unless he's shown he's a really bad reg. AK w/o some reasonable history shouldn't be shoving here. And I think most of the assigned range I've peeped on here isn't quite correct.

I don't think he'll have 88 too often, and not because of him not 3-betting it, but because of how it was played. You're mostly looking at:
AA,KK,JJ,QT

150 bbs deep in position, you'll see QT in there. AJ/AK obviously also will be in there, but AJ isn't shoving almost ever, and AK isn't always shoving either.

So really you're just hoping for a misplayed AK, and everything else has you beat imho. Pretty much zero bluffs in his range.
 
Thinker_145

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Don't think a nitty 3-bettor has J10s/QJs in his 3-betting range. Check-raising turn overreps our hand and isolates ourselves against chops or AA/KK. I seriously doubt any competent player is barreling flop and turn with AQ/AJ and then calling a check-raise, then a jam. AQ/AJ should check flop or turn.
Yes good point this is also one thing I didn't talk about which is one of the reasoning for donking the flop. AQ should feel good about the flop but is most certainly checking the turn. AQ is the hand that finds itself in the most troubling situation if I keep leading out in my opinion.

If we are up against AA/KK then at what point do we save money? Only way is to keep check calling which is losing value against other more likely hands. I mean take QQ for example donking is probably getting a call. And then the turn would require a disciplined fold as it brings a gutshot.

I believe against AQ/QQ I took the best line. Even against JJ as its very unlikely to get a C bet from it so at least here we made it call a 2 outer raise.

It is not inconciebable to get AQ and QQ to have called 2 streets. Now sure QQ is never calling river but just giving AQ cheap showdown seems bad to me.

Now against AA/KK any line I take is getting me in trouble unless I take the very passive line.

The real decision if I he is ever shoving less than a set in the end as I could be donking with 88 all along.
 
Thinker_145

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Any post flop agg numbers?

This is a pretty easy river fold unless he's shown he's a really bad reg. AK w/o some reasonable history shouldn't be shoving here. And I think most of the assigned range I've peeped on here isn't quite correct.

I don't think he'll have 88 too often, and not because of him not 3-betting it, but because of how it was played. You're mostly looking at:
AA,KK,JJ,QT

150 bbs deep in position, you'll see QT in there. AJ/AK obviously also will be in there, but AJ isn't shoving almost ever, and AK isn't always shoving either.

So really you're just hoping for a misplayed AK, and everything else has you beat imho. Pretty much zero bluffs in his range.
I don't have any numbers but I know from history that he isn't very aggressive. But isn't it a bad thing to fold a hand after putting in as much money as I did? How many times does this have to be AK to make it a worthwhile call?
 
John A

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I don't have any numbers but I know from history that he isn't very aggressive. But isn't it a bad thing to fold a hand after putting in as much money as I did? How many times does this have to be AK to make it a worthwhile call?

Yes, of course you don't ever want to put this much in and fold typically speaking. But you have 20 combos that beat you, 4 combos that chop and zero that win imho. You need over 24% to justify a call so even if he jams AK 100% of the time it's not a profitable call. You literally need him to be shoving AJ almost always too in order to justify a call.
 
vinylspiros

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Don't think a nitty 3-bettor has J10s/QJs in his 3-betting range. Check-raising turn overreps our hand and isolates ourselves against chops or AA/KK. I seriously doubt any competent player is barreling flop and turn with AQ/AJ and then calling a check-raise, then a jam. AQ/AJ should check flop or turn.


solid points man. i see ur point.

Can you please tell me what you believe is the best line for us to take? c/c,c/c,c/c?


assuming we didnt donk lead and he fired 3 streets? (on this particular runnout)
 
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Yeah, I think being 150bb deep c/c 2x then c/f to a huge river bet/jam. We're calling to basically chop or lose when he 3-barrels this runout. Calling or folding is probably close if he bets like half pot on all 3 streets, calling most likely slightly -EV though since he cant really have any bluffs in his range. For 150bb I don't think we can justify stacking off with top two. For 100bb I think usually stacking off is okay, unless he makes it transparent he has the nuts. I'm leading turn and river if he checks flop, but folding to a raise at any point.
 
vinylspiros

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Yeah, I think being 150bb deep c/c 2x then c/f to a huge river bet/jam. We're calling to basically chop or lose when he 3-barrels this runout. For 150bb I don't think we can justify stacking off with top two. For 100bb I think usually stacking off is okay, unless he makes it transparent he has the nuts. If he has AA/KK, nh. I'm leading turn and river if he checks flop, but folding to a raise at any point.


fair enough man. makes total sense. thanks for your replying.
 
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