£20 NLHE 6-max: Such a tough spot can we fold here?

iPoker - £0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 103.95 BB (VPIP: 23.36, PFR: 19.59, 3Bet Preflop: 8.38, hands: 1,403)
SB: 101.4 BB (VPIP: 24.39, PFR: 22.76, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 130)
BB: 202.3 BB (VPIP: 16.92, PFR: 15.08, 3Bet Preflop: 9.91, Hands: 668)
UTG: 47.3 BB (VPIP: 63.16, PFR: 42.11, 3Bet Preflop: 42.86, Hands: 20)
MP: 260.55 BB (VPIP: 20.69, PFR: 18.97, 3Bet Preflop: 8.99, Hands: 241)
Hero (CO): 116.15 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J:heart: J:club:

UTG raises to 47 BB, fold, Hero calls 47 BB, BTN raises to 103.95 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, UTG calls 0.3 BB, Hero

Obviously my best chance here is AK and I really doubt he ever shoves TT here. So if we give him a range of AK/QQ+ should we fold it? If he shows AK its just so bad folding after putting in that much.

We are getting 4:1 so I guess its not terrible even if he has QQ+. But then again best case scenario we are merely 55% favorite so I really don't know what's the correct move here. I would be glad if someone can do the math here.

Just working it out rough hand with 200bb and 53bb to call it would be a call against just the button if he is capable of this with AK. If he only does this with aa kk then its a clear fold as our equity falls to 19% and we still have to beat the fish as well and he dilutes our equity by 25bb every trial if we give him TT+

Why didn't you just re-shove rather than call?

As played, we're getting around 4/1 on a call, so we have to go with it but I'd have just shoved pre and not have been in this situation.

RegiTime said:

Why didn't you just re-shove rather than call?

As played, we're getting around 4/1 on a call, so we have to go with it but I'd have just shoved pre and not have been in this situation.

Click to expand...

What difference does it make? QQ+ isn't folding and probably AK isn't folding either.

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

Why do you call preflop?

tomnovember said:

Why do you call preflop?

Click to expand...

Did you see the stats of UTG?

It was like the 3rd consecutive hand he shoved.

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

With that last snippet you gave us Id say that this was a call then. I was considering that the button would have to be really strong here but If the fish was constantly shoving then the button knows that you don't have to be particularly strong to call the fish. I that case AK is definitely possible maybe even less. It's a good move from the button if he can get you to fold he's fighting for a big pot against a fish who could have a really wide range. I think we can also downgrade the strength of the fishes hand. It was borderline before but now it's almost certainly +ev .

Tough spot.

As played, I think he has either QQ or KK.

Pot odds is good but card odds is bad.

Only hand we have chance is AK.

Thinker_145 said:

What difference does it make? QQ+ isn't folding and probably AK isn't folding either.

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

Click to expand...

It doesn't change his cards, you're right but I think re-shoving here is way better because it stops you putting 50bb in and then not knowing whether to call or not when someone shoves over the top.

Folding here would be a pretty big mistake if the villain ever has AK and we're getting close to the direct odds we need if the villain turned his AA/KK/QQ face up.

Yeah this is a pretty tragic spot. You know you're coolered and are dead to a 2-outer, but if you think he does this with AK, you need to call.

just call , A K Q on flop easy fold JJ and all in preflop!! good luck only J