Originally Posted by ComplexPlaya
Entraction - €0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3 (http://www.pokertracker.com)
Hero (UTG): €24.58
SB posts SB €0.10, BB posts BB €0.20
Pre Flop: (pot: €0.30) Hero has A<font color='black'>♣</font> A<font color='red'>♥</font>
Hero raises to €0.70, fold, fold, fold, SB calls €0.60, BB calls €0.50
Flop: (€2.10, 3 players) J<font color='black'>♣</font> A<font color='black'>♠</font> K<font color='red'>♥</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero ???
How would you go about this hand? Obviously slim chance they have an A, can they call a cbet or should we check behind to perhaps induce or let them have a re-draw on turn etc., what would yield most value in the long run?
they're not going to fold their gutshots + pairs. And unless they turn a set with an underpair, you're not getting much more value out of them anyway.
Look at it this way: Name a turn card that improves their hand so that they'd now be willing to play for stacks and the corresponding hand they'd need to have. Then consider how likely they are to have that hand, how likely they are to fold that hand if you bet, and finally consider the risk that you're outdrawn on the turn. Or, which is almost as bad, that a straight card falls and you no longer get max value out of JJ or KJ.
Just bet. If they fold, you weren't going to get paid anyway.